patrickshere

528 dam in better positioning for more of the country to be in the line for snow tomorrow.

Great news for Bucks + more southern parts of this region.

Not looking great out here in Aylesbury, Bucks.. Just need cold to get a little further south west / precip to come a couple hours later.

50/50? Only ~4-5 of those runs go below -5 in your London diagram...

It's funny that your post is well liked now, given what's happened vs. when I made a similar post on evening of the 5th when the ramping was out of control. I was confronted and said to be overly negative, etc. The problem is that all the ramping and moronic chart analysis fills the thread up with crap, so that you can't actually see the info from the good posters such as GP, but hey, there we go. These threads are less about model discussion, and more about trying to find any hint that it may snow somewhere in the UK within the next 168 hours on the latest GFS/GEM/UKMO/ECM/Insert model here run. Every upgrade people go crazy, and every change in synoptics you get a wall of complaining from people that would not benefit from the change because it wouldn't bring snow to their particular area, etc.. The whole thing is ridiculous and IMO the threads need a bit more moderating. The generic surface "analysis" of charts talking about how it's 100% likely it's going to snow on 19th March 2017 should be in a different thread.

If you want to determine what someone's going to say about the particular model, just look at what's next to "Location" before reading their post. You'll be amazed how accurately you can predict the comments. It's another cold run in the bank, with the particular scenario snow would be restricted to the north, and eastern coasts, perhaps with the odd flurry making it further inland.

I've seen a lot of near perfect easterlies forecasted in the last 7 or so years, and the one thing they have in common is that they all get downgraded this far out. Whilst yes we have two runs here that are showing good things, they're just that 2 out of lots of runs in a single day, and we're talking out at ~150 hours, when FI in the current setup is easily within 96 hours. I'm just saying that members tend to get carried away with their predictions, and the analysis gets biased, which reduces the quality of the thread from a model watching point of view. (i.e. it's just people going "omg it's going to be so cold!!!") Oh sure, I'm excited - just quietly excited. I'll just be waiting until the weekend before I start predicting what's likely to happen ~7 days out from now. If I posted a generic post telling everyone to get excited and that we were in for 1947 then there'd be no problem, give a point of view that errs on the side of caution and.....

It's funny watching people complain and say that everything's going wrong, or writing the 6z off as a poor run, the 18z run (pub run) as a poor run (or whatever run said bad run is) yet when a good run comes up, it's treated like a dead cert. If we're still seeing the same on Saturday, you can start to get excited, but this is still very much FI territory, and small changes over the next few days in what transpires can make huge differences down the line (even if teleconnections are favourable).

Lol, no. The changes are incremental. There's big changes in runs far within T144. With a setup like this I'd avoid getting too excited until it's within T+72, although the 06 easterly I seem to remember broke down even within that.

Haha it's cool - we can call it revenge for the time the snow missed you mostly and gave us about 30cm last year.

Been ok - now lightly sleeting. We probably have 6-8cm tops, not going to go out and measure it. As said earlier though - definitely can't see anywhere getting 20cm, beyond the very odd extremely well placed place that ended up in those small intense precip areas - ironically the best places seem to have been the places that were expecting little (i.e. Birmingham etc) I'm not convinced the front has enough power left in it to do much down in the far SE. Maybe up to what we have here at a maximum if it moves and dies out very slowly. Certainly nothing to compare to the 30 or so cm of last year. Temps have risen a fair bit - feels much warmer tonight than it has in a while. Can hear snow melting too and dripping off the trees - so not sure how long it'll stick.

Nothing major here yet, couple of cm. Looks heavier to both the north and south in the band, typical... Anyone know why the radar is showing up that weird pattern around Aylesbury/MK sorta area? I assume that's not what's actually going on because it looks like a fixed pattern.

~10cm is possible, perhaps up to 15cm in hills and such and lucky locations. Currently most of the precip is falling at 0.5-2mm/hr, and unless it's sustained for something like 10 hours without fizzling out at all, certainly the 20cm predictions seem way OTT. The precip up north west is more intense, but more likely to become rain later.

The darker blue bits on the NW radar gave us snow - the pale stuff is basically nothing. (Odd flake)

Well looking at this one I certainly don't see that much - unless some significant intensification happens on a widespread basis. Maybe if the precip up in preston was more widespread.

Snow has begun falling here in Aylesbury, Bucks.

This seems far too ambitious to me, I just can't see it. Would quite happily see it - but a front doesn't usually bring that much precip.

Haha, sneaky edit

Better than nothing if you don't want to pay though - why not suggest a better one people can get for free if you're going to say something like that?

Watch it coming: http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ Red = snow White = sleet Blue = Rain Pink = Freezing Rain The more intense the colour, the heavier. As the fronts combine precip will get heavier, and the whole band is moving SE. You're right on the edges currently.

12z GFS agrees with NAE:

Thought I'd post it in here as hadn't seen the 12z NAE posted yet. Looks better for most. Moving a bit faster (as we've seen on the radar) but staying as snow for more people, for longer.

Feels like a bit of IMBY'ism in your drawings. Those places up north you've listed with big snowfalls are are unlikely IMO, and more likely to have rain after the original snow than many of the places further south you've listed with 1-5cm, etc. In the south I'd expect more snow further west of where you've stated. The places in yellow are going to get a lot of snow, just might get some rain afterwards too, which would destroy accumulations. Chiltern hills especially I reckon there could be 15-20cm of the stuff.

I'm not deliberately being obtuse incidentally, I kept an online storage service with 3 million registered users online - for ~$4000/month including storage costs. What we were doing is far more personalised on an individual basis, with user logons, etc and consistent database access. Very high disk I/O for uploading and downloading files - things that the meto don't have to deal with. Everything on their website can be cached: forecasts for locations, charts, etc.. Then they can generate all those charts on a different server setup, however they do that. It means they'd only then need to serve up virtually non dynamic content which could be served through a content delivery network, completely scaleable giving 100% uptime, no matter what traffic is generated. Then the only things that could take it down would be failings in the CDN (which do happen - but very rarely, and not based on burst traffic), or missing charts/forecasts due to any errors in their generation if it was to occur.

Website's fine for me too - I'm just saying it's not an unreasonable expectation these days. Website's still go down due to tech problems, things breaking etc - a bank's website/online banking and the BBC is far, far more complex than the meto's website. For a site like the meto with minimal dynamic content, it should be fairly simple to keep online.