Frosty.

The GEFS 6z mean essentially indicates a north / south split, but ultimately, it could be even better than that from just after mid month according to these ensembles!…now, this could be seen as misleading, there are some very unsettled members.. but this is just my take on what will be.. call me an optimist.. .. perhaps I am… .. yay it’s October..a step nearer winter.. that’s a plus innit.. cheers!

The GEFS 12z mean indicates a predominantly north / south split which becomes even more prominent in the period between early-ish to mid October!…for sure, the nw / n looks quite unsettled / Atlantic driven for a while but even that tends to fizzle out somewhat further ahead…as far as the s / se is concerned, it’s drier than the n / nw, not settled as such but more settled than the Gfs 12z operational suggests, which I think was an unsettled outlier!..just my opinion..or is it!? .. anyhoo, some of the ensembles further into October look quite settled! ️ 🐿

HEY…!!!!!! I’m a coldie at heart..all hail P21 for mid October!!!

Just perused the GEFS 6z mean and I honestly can’t see any change since yesterday, ergo, it’s a predominantly n / s to nw / se split for the majority of the run!…personally, I find autumn boring weather wise but I love the changes in tree colours from green to yellow / brown but I wish we could just fast forward to winter already.. pffffffft !!!!

For the most part, the GEFS 12z mean indicates a broadly north / south to northwest / southeast split with the Azores high / ridge largely holding sway across the s / se whereas there’s a stronger Atlantic influence across the n / nw where it looks largely unsettled although with some quieter interludes too!…so…it’s a mixed picture but the general rule of thumb is the further s / se you are, the drier it looks….which is pretty normal really! ️ 🌫 🌧

Wowzers, it’s like the Mary Celeste in here! …anyhoo, at least the Gfs 12z operational shows some occasionally settled spells, as shown here! ️

Wowzers, no posts for 18 minutes.. ..I mean 18 hours.. ..and then a veritable downburst of posts.. from .. erm..…downburst! …anyway, the longer term has some potential for fine weather fans from the GEFS 6z!!.. I salute you Christopher.. .. I mean.... P25!

Wowzers, no posts for 18 hours!?…hmmm..is the outlook bad?..nope, it’s essentially a n / s split from the GEFS 6z mean…the south / southeast does quite well compared to the n / nw..but, twas ever thus..etc! …eventually guys, we will have to accept summer is over, and autumn is just a prelude to the incredible winter to come..yeah yeah frosty, that’s too much.. nice try though!!!!

For the most part, the Ecm 12z operational has high pressure / ridging influence, occasionally punctuated by more unsettled interludes but most of that is across the far NW / N…the S / SE doesn’t look bad at all for the majority of the time, especially later…most of the widely unsettled weather is early in the run! ️ 🌫

The Gfs 12z operational kind of backs up what I was saying about the GEFS 6z mean in that high pressure is predominantly close to the s / se with the best of the drier & brighter / calmer / warmer spells whereas the NW / N bears the brunt of the occasionally more unsettled phases. For sure, we all see some rain from time to time during the run but the emphasis is on drier further s / se…to me, it’s NOT a typical fired up autumn Atlantic onslaught …anyone agree…or is it just me?…if it’s just me, I’ll get me coat! …the end of the run looks more unsettled generally but it’s the Gfs being the Gfs innit!

I’ve just looked at the GEFS 6z mean and here is my assessment …for sure it looks predominantly changeable.. …but with a large slice of emphasis on a north / south to northwest / southeast split!…in other words, I see NO sign of a raging Atlantic affecting the u k, just something more meek / mild, especially further s / se…all very broad brush of course! …and just my humble opinion…

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational, for sure, we have to roll with the punches for a while!!.. 🌧 …. .. but the longer term trend (from early October) is our friend people! …well, at least for those of us.. (I assume the majority)!!!!?…who prefer benign.. that is!? ️ 🌫

The GEFS 6z mean indicates a gradual trend to more settled in the mid and longer term.. especially further s / se!!!?….am I right, or am I right.. or am I right?! ..for sure, there’s plenty of time for snaw!??!!!

Just before the 12z gets into full swing, a quick mention about the ECMWF 0z ensemble mean, for sure, there are good signs of a gradual settling down from the south longer term (early October) following an admittedly more unsettled / cyclonic late september / start to October! ️ 🌫

Hey guys, I may have mentioned this yesterday???..a few times.. nudge nudge.. wink wink … ... ..but early-ish October May yet be quite benign / pleasant for many according to the GEFS 6z mean.. ️ 🌫

Quite an impressive day 10 ECMWF 12z operational..a kind of glimpse of the memorable summer just gone! …must say, I’m looking forwards now to a hopefully memorable winter, from a coldie perspective, call me deluded.. I don’t mind!!

I’m basically ignoring the Gfs 12z operational as I choose to believe it’s an unsettled outlier!…the mean is more stable, as one would expect, it indicates a gradual settling down in the mid / longer term, especially further south following an initially more unsettled phase…so, I reckon early to possibly mid October could be rather benign / pleasant, at least further s / se…of course..I could be completely wrong, but then, I’m an amateur, so my opinion doesn’t matter..does it!

I think the GEFS mean is on to something regarding early October?, which incidentally ties in with Exeter’s current thoughts ..ergo, becoming less unsettled / more settled / benign / pleasant with mists and mellow fruitfulness a distinct probability.. at least across southern u k?… ps.. I love autumn, the changing colour of the leaves to yellow is wonderful!!!..or am I crazy for saying that?.. too late now innit, it’s out there!! ️ 🌫 🐿

Hallelujah!!!…I’ve sweated absolute buckets at times during the summer, praise the lord, I thank you for your service Gfs 6z op! .. … I cannae wait to breathe in that cool crisp autumnal air.. 🐿 !!! …I hope this winter is as exceptional as the summer, but in a cold sense..of course ! ️…I’m a dreamer!.. ..dreaming of a weaker polar vortex!!!!!

Looking at tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean, following a cooler plunge from the north with showers peppering the east, high pressure gradually drifts eastwards, cutting off the cool air supply and temperatures gradually become more respectable, especially further s / se…for the majority who prefer benign?, it’s looking good Houston!

I seem to be ploughing a lonely furrow this evening! ..but never mind!…anyhoo, the ECMWF 12z operational gradually becomes more settled / anticyclonic, and warmer, especially further s / se…quite decent charts for the time of year in the mid / longer term! ️

There’s a lot to like about the GEFS 12z mean / GFS 12z operational if you’re a fan of predominantly settled weather?!….. if you’re not..move along! there’s no sign of a full on autumn Atlantic assault.. indeed, the opposite is perhaps true?…looks quite benign / pleasant to me, the nicer face of autumn! ️ 🌫 🐿

Perhaps it’s a bit of a stretch to expect high pressure to still be in the ascendancy by late September?, but what the hell!…there’s a bit of hope from the longer term 6z ensembles for that to transpire (P14 is spectacular)!!!… ! …ps.. God bless the Queen, I’m absolutely shattered by her passing!!!…long live the King!!!!

I agree, the GEFS 6z mean suggests / implies the higher pressure would stick around… a bit longer, eventually leading to a NW / SE split!?…anyway, time will tell! ..ps.. Harvest moon tonight.. ..or was it last night?… anyhoo.. ..shine on! Cheers..

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, especially in the mid / longer term outlook, on the face of it, there’s plenty of ridging / high pressure indicated…so, a largely benign further outlook beckons! ️… may the Queen rest in peace..I’m so upset!