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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don’t put too much stock in amonalies.. which is why I never post any! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hey guys, not posting as much as I used to but I had / have.. to mention the longer term ECMWF 0z.. the mean ends much better than the op.. go figure! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking at the GEFS 6z mean..I think there’s plenty more of summer 2022 to come…until the end.. and beyond.. small sample attached..!!! … -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If anything, the Gfs 12z operational ends even more settled / summery than the 6z!?..but this ties in with Exeter’s current thoughts! ….anyway, some much needed rain 🌧 ⛈ early next week, especially needed across the parched s / se but thereafter, most of any rain brushes across the north and then there’s yet another settled signal! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hey guys..I know we need rain!!!..and we are going to get some flash flooding early next week followed by a more changeable period but then late august on the GEFS 6z mean indicates a return to more settled / summery weather?!..my goodness, what an incredible summer ⛈ !..if winter is only quarter / half as good.. it will still be worth waiting for! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean is a beauty until mid month when it suggests a thundery breakdown and some very weclome rain!..some may be blasé about the week ahead considering the extreme heat we’ve had recently… we ( the majority )… …should make the most of it as September will soon be looming!..although for sure, it can be summery in early autumn too! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ECMWF 12z operational is Epic!…I couldn’t imagine a more summery run for the time of year, it’s mind blowing..truly! ️…. This isn’t a ramp! ..maybe some will say, we’ve had 38 / 40c!!!! ………………low / mid 30’s c..meh..pfffft woteva!… next month it’s autumn damn it!!!… let’s make hay while we still have time! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Ukmo 12h looks pretty great!..I figure there will eventually be a thundery breakdown, at least further south. ⛈ .. ?..but that’s well in the future, in the meantime it looks sunny, increasingly hot & amazing… apart from the far nw / n! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Although mid august could go Pete tong?! ..there’s plenty of summery weather before that on the icon 12z!….I wouldn’t be surprised if mid 90’s perhaps 100f is reached again during the second half of the week ahead?!.. now, I need a rest! .. ️ ⛈.and...why are Man U so crap.. ?…answers on a postcard?.. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking at the Gfs 6z op…I have a pertinent question?.. ..why are summers in th u k so great and winters so crap..perhaps global warming?… ..go figure!.. but why is Finland, for example still -25c in winter.. and the u k + 13c..hmm?…perhaps global..oh forget it!.. pffffffffffffffft!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFS 6z mean is fantastic out to around mid august!..footballs coming home.. ️ .. ..ah, it already did last Sunday! …anyway, moving swiftly on…summer 2022 is alive and kicking during the week ahead!.. yay!…it’s coming home..it’s coming home… …who cares about the second half of august?..ok I do!..but let’s enjoy the first half.. for now..phew..that’s a load off! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Oh my giddy aunt!..just catching up guys, just seen the ECMWF 0z ensemble mean.. wow..love it..summer continues to dazzle! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well…England had its driest July since 1935!!!.. ....and looking at the GEFS 12z mean, the period between now and approx mid August continues with the generally very dry theme, indeed, you have to say, these are sensational mean charts if you’re a summer fan!… …mid month or thereabouts may become more changeable?..but perhaps the Azores high will then build in again?…anyway, for many, especially further s / se it’s been, and continues to be an absolutely INCREDIBLE summer…I hope the upcoming winter will be too! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Gem 12z is preety good, actually it’s preety much a gem out towards mid month!!…mid August breakdown seems likely?, unless you want to be an ostrich about it!.. ..but I actually believe most on here would like some rain since, especially the s / se is in drought conditions!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEM 0z mean is also insanely good for summer fans!… ….we need to make the most of what’s left of summer!!!!!!!!.. …as I’m sure autumn and winter will be long and painful… .. just kidding,.. I’m sure winter 2022/23 will be a good one! ️ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Before the 12z rolls out, I just have to mention the ECMWF 0z ensemble mean before it becomes obsolete.. …now, the op was insanely good!..and the mean is too!!..summers in the u k are too short, we have to make the most of what’s available, and this summer has already surpassed all expectations and beyond..this will be the icing on the cake ..as it were! ️ -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
On the face of it, this is a cracking ECMWF 12z ensemble mean tonight for the majority of the u k!…Very Summery / Settled!…… August is looking Good!!! ️ -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Now hear this, now hear this!!!!..I can confirm the Ukmo 12h looks preeety darn tootin amazing too me.. indeed, gobsmacked I am! 🐿 -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yoda was so impressed with the GEFS 6z mean out as far as mid August..indeed, gobsmacked he is!… !!!!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
looks like a toppler to me -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Frosty. replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Superb GEFS 6z mean, out to around mid August at least!!!… All in all, this has been a GREAT summer.. away from the far NW / N.. so far.. .. with records smashed to bits!… if only we can say the same about winter..sometime soon!!