Frosty.

Not the worst end to the Ecm 12z with, dare I say it... pressure starting to rise!

Sidney will be happy with the 16-30 day outlook though

I think it's supposed to be 17c in London on Tuesday which is a bit crap

In this situation it's better that we don't post charts

Models look changeable for the next few weeks, the most unsettled across the n / w where it also looks windy at times with temps near normal but cool during the wet and windy spells. The s / e also see spells of rain interspersed with sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery, again with near normal temps but the southeastern quadrant of the UK in particular looks like having some short-lived fine and pleasantly warm spells. The long term signal remains encouraging for a pattern change to summery weather from around mid July for most of the UK with fine and warm weather and some humid thundery conditions, especially for the south / southeast which suggests some plume type events so hopefully the second half of this summer will make up for the generally disappointing first half!

LOL yes..or 5 months from that date.. December 2015..I remember it well, daffs in full bloom well before christmas!

Thanks for saying that, I get some criticism so it's nice to know someone thinks I'm doing ok

Pffftt if we have to wait until autumn for our first hot spell, not interested, Sept the night's are drawing in and leaves are dying. And then we have winter to look forward to with knocker and his red crayon and toasty charts, daffodils blooming in December etc, jokes about turning down the thermostat in the woodshed...can't bl**dy wait!

To me they look poor at second, third and fourth glance too...etc etc

No different in winter when some of us are looking for cold, no chink of light.

The best way I can describe the Ecm 12z is unsettled and breezy / windy at times with temperatures struggling to reach average for most of the time, really autumnal charts to be honest! The worst weather is further northwest but nobody escapes spells of rain interspersed with sunshine and showers, there is a few short-lived transient ridges for the south with some brighter, drier and pleasantly warm moments. For the height of summer it's abysmal.

Certainly i would describe the Gfs 12z with an S word but it's not sensational.

The 12 z models so far today are as expected and look generally unsettled and trough dominated. The Gfs 12z op does however show very occasional, brief ridging across the south / southeast bringing a few drier, brighter and warmer spells, but we all have bands of rain pushing in from the west interspersed with sunny spells and showers, many of the showers heavy and thundery. It also looks breezy at times, strongest in the north / northwest where the worst of the unsettled weather occurs and temperatures look close to average in the sunny periods but feeling cool under the cloud and rain. Looking much further ahead it was encouraging to read that there could possibly be a pattern change around mid July with warm and settled conditions and some humid thundery events. I hope we do have a change of luck beyond the next few weeks.

It's looking a bit blue isn't it

As usual

That sounds dreadful, another summer down the toilet!

Yes mate, most of you guys on here know how positive I try to be but today has left me feeling as flat as an Azores ridge, it's been squashed by lowering heights to the nw and I'm gutted that the height of summer is going to be a damp squib.

Not even 19-21c on some days next week, nearer mid to upper teens c....pathetic

The Ecm 12z is another slap in the face with a wet fish. It shows a generally unsettled outlook with temps on the cool side for most of the time, breezy at times with rain and showers, some heavy and thundery with longer spells of rain and only transient dry and brighter intervals. For the height of summer it's disgraceful and this run now joins the gfs, ukmo and gem which all show a cool unsettled outlook next week and probably beyond.

Can sidney tell us if there will be a heatwave in July or August?

Indeed, I said the same earlier, all we get in winter is mild mush and knocker with his red crayon showing toasty charts and jokes about the woodshed.

Ruddy awful charts for the so called height of summer taken from T+144 snapshot of Gfs / Ukmo / Gem 12z which all show increasing trough domination from the northwest with disappointing temps and Lots of cloud, rain and showers, worst in the nw but not much better elsewhere.

Yes you did Greenland but the last few days the Ensemble mean from Gefs / Ecm did show a strong Azores ridge extending across the south which has now been squashed, I posted quite a few charts showing it but it's just typical it's gone pete tong. Charts look autumnal.

I was quite encouraged yesterday but now I'm as flat as that Azores ridge!

It's ruddy awful isn't it Phil, pish poor summer going from bad to worse.