Frosty.

Agreed Phil, it's the best GEFS mean longer range for some considerable time. :- )

Exacta are complete rubbish, they haven't taken a blind bit of notice of the met office, no heatwave next week, maybe later in July and exacta forecast the coldest, snowiest winter imaginable, actually they do every winter..lol..and it was one of the mildest since records began..I rest my case

Without a doubt this is the best looking GEFS mean for a while from the 12z with good support for a spell of fine and pleasantly warm weather, at least across the south of the uk next week and longer range, the Azores high builds in more strongly than before which would make sense since the met office are still indicating a possible mid July pattern change to warmer and more settled weather, I would go further and say the update hints at very warm continental / humid thundery weather too..hope we do see a major change in around a few weeks time.

The good news from the Gfs 12z op is that next week doesn't look as unsettled as this week in the south as a ridge of high pressure builds across southern areas.. no it's not perfect, far from it but the south / southeast has a window of fine and pleasantly warm weather for a time next week. It's a different story further n / nw where it stays unsettled and cooler. The unsettled weather spreads to all areas later next week but through low res there is a stronger Azores / Atlantic ridge which extends across the southern half of the UK with the jetstream forced further north for a time and a spell of settled and pleasantly warm weather..yes it could be a lot better and hopefully it will by the second half of July.

Hi Matthew, I agree with you, there is nothing i would like more than for the Azores high to build strongly NE through the uk, migrate to the east and enable a hot air mass from southern Europe to drift north into the UK but for now I would just like to see an improvement next week as the GEFS 6z mean shows, at least for the south. Hope we see a full blown pattern change by around mid / late July or thereabouts.

The GEFS 6z mean shows a ridge of high pressure extending across the south by early next week, nowhere near as unsettled as this week and especially further south with a spell of largely fine and pleasantly warm weather with temps into the low 20's celsius. So yes, this week is trough dominated with bands of rain spilling in off the Atlantic separated by sunshine and scattered heavy showers but from next week it looks better, the Azores high (ridge) does wax and wane but for the south its a mostly improving picture.

Anyway, the Gfs 6z wasn't horrible, not in the south of the uk anyway with some ridge influence bringing fine and pleasantly warm weather at times from early next week and temps into the low 20s c...much more unsettled and cooler across the northwest of the UK.

The Gfs 6z op shows unsettled weather for the next 4 / 5 days but then a ridge of High pressure builds in early next week with some fine and pleasantly warm weather, not completely dry but not a write off either with temps into the low 20's celsius, actually the southern half of the uk has plenty of pleasant temps in the high teens to around 20-21c but cooler further NW where it's more unsettled too. Another trough drifts over the UK by the end of next week with cyclonic sunshine and heavy showers followed by another ridge, it's the north of the UK which bears the brunt of the cool low pressure on this run.

The GEFS 00z mean shows the azores high ridging across the south from sunday and well into next week so there would be some fine and pleasantly warm weather, especially further south. It's really only the next 5 days that show much trough influence, beyond that it looks decent, at least across the south of the UK.

Modeller ser battre ut an I gar och jag gillar Ecm 12z senare :-)

Fingers crossed Gavin, it's better than I expected, nice end to the Ecm 12z. :- )

The Ecm 12z op ends on an encouraging note with a ridge of high pressure becoming established and becoming warmer...not bad at all

The Ecm 12z op shows a ridge of high pressure trying to build in early next week, certainly less trough influence so a reduction in showers and at least some fine weather around next week and feeling pleasant in the sun. It's not as bad as some of the recent output.

The GEFS 12z mean shows an improvement across the south early next week with some fine pleasantly warm weather, as per the op and longer term, there are again signs that the trough influence will reduce with increasing support for the Azores high (ridge) to build our way :- )

Thanks Markyo, much appreciated

Exactly, I have been accused of misleading, hopecasting etc and the criticism hurts because it's my love of the weather that brought me to netweather and it would be a shame if the critical comments make me call it a day :- )

I'm just reporting it as I see it, don't think that's straw clutching.

I'm just looking for a pattern change like the majority on here and I'm picking up on some encouraging hints for the run up to mid July. I will keep an eye on the mean as its run now reaches 13th July so we will soon find out if the met office hints at a change to generally summery weather is likely or not. :- )

I would rather talk about the UK as a whole and I think it's fair to say it hasn't been a good summer so far in many parts of the uk and that won't be helped as we are now entering a cooler more unsettled phase with bouts of wind and rain interspersed with sunshine and heavy showers but I'm hopeful we will see a nationwide improvement from around mid July or hopefully sooner as the latest GEFS mean indicates..update ...met office still hinting at mid July pattern change to warm and more settled with a chance of very warm and humid thundery weather, at least in the south..please make it so.

Just as an example to show how the Gefs 6z mean improves as we go further into July, here are the mean charts for this week and then further ahead and they do show a gradual improvement over time. I'm hoping I will have the opportunity to post some fantastic mean charts in the not too distant future! :- )

I'm willing the Azores high to start ridging in towards mid July or sooner, again there are hints from the GEFS 6z mean that the trough domination will eventually weaken considerably with more chance for high pressure to gain the upper hand....I hope so, for this summer's sake!

Mid July onwards..hopefully

These troughs are an effing nuisance ain't they..attracted to the UK like flies to dog doodo on the Gfs 6z op BUT it does look more settled for a time in the south early next week and the run ends with high pressure ridging in from the west so at least it's better than yesterday's equivalent poop fest!

No problem Weather Boy, I'm just in a bad mood this morning.

Did I say it was right? All I'm doing is keeping people who want to know what the models are currently showing.. updated!