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Frosty.

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Everything posted by Frosty.

  1. Frosty.
    Looking further ahead (day 10 onwards) the GEFS 6z perturbations still shows some nice anticyclonic scenarios but less than at T+168 hours but as I mentioned earlier, this is due to the waxing and waning of the Azores high in response to occasionally lowering heights to the nw / n but it's fickle in that range and could easily improve through late July into early August hopefully!
  2. Frosty.
    Looking at the GEFS 6z perturbations shows emphatic support for high pressure to be centred over the uk or very close by next weekend, there are some intensifying anticyclones shown which would prolong the settled increasingly warm spell well into week 2..it's looking good as things stand. :- )
  3. Frosty.
    Fingers crossed Tamara
  4. Frosty.
    The GEFS 6z mean is looking nice later next week and especially next weekend with high pressure, sunshine and warmth. Further ahead its a waxing and waning azores high in response to the lower heights to the nw / n but the south of the uk should at least see some fine and warm spells...hopefully we will see the long - wave pattern change during late July and through august..keep hoping!
  5. Frosty.
    The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a considerable warm up later next week as high pressure builds in following the cooler, showery blip with temps rising into the mid to upper 20's celsius with increasing humidity as we import continental warmth which would lead to a thundery breakdown..
  6. Frosty.
    The Gem 00z turns into a peach of a run from later next week onwards as high pressure builds in and hangs around, becoming much warmer with plenty of sunshine and temps into the mid 20's celsius, perhaps upper 20's c. :- )
  7. Frosty.
    The Ukmo 00z ends on a High note, next weekend could be dry, warm and sunny...speaking of warmth, parts of the southeast could reach 26/27c 80F this afternoon which would make it the warmest day of July so far. :- )
  8. Frosty.
    The GEFS 00z mean is looking good for later next week with high pressure building in across the south bringing dry, sunny and warmer weather, at least across England and Wales but possibly further north too.
  9. Frosty.
    I just went through the GEFS 12z perturbations and some of them show a marked pattern change to summery weather, we have an epic plume (p5) which is similar to the Ecm 12z op and many anticyclonic scenarios just beyond the day 10 period so I'm hoping the mean keeps improving during the days ahead, as things stand the gefs / ecm 12z mean tonight is encouraging for warmth and high pressure towards the end of next week! :- )
  10. Frosty.
    The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows summery weather arriving later next week, at least across England and Wales with high pressure building in across the south and gradually increasing warmth, mid to upper 20s celsius for the s / e...another encouraging mean tonight as it has been in recent days but this is the best yet!
  11. Frosty.
    The Ecm 12z shows a chance of 30-31 c 87f in the south and east at the end of next week Bring on the plume..well I would settle for warm and anticyclonic! Now let us pray
  12. Frosty.
    So it could be warmest over knockers woodshed! that's typical innit
  13. Frosty.
    It's not cherry picking if the charts show high pressure later next week, which they do..check out the GEFS 12z mean charts I have just posted, they are encouraging!
  14. Frosty.
    Well this looks good, the GEFS 12z mean shows a fine and warm spell across at least the southern half of the UK from later next week..so, after a cool start to next week with sunny spells and heavy showers with thunder, a ridge of high pressure gradually builds in from the southwest across the south and although the Azores High does wane for a time, it builds in again soon after...encouraging signs that the Azores high will become more influential in the weeks ahead.
  15. Frosty.
    Knocker I'm praying for the day you ever show an anticyclonic chart, even if it's in low res it will be worth celebrating
  16. Frosty.
    I don't agree, although the Gfs 12z op run becomes unsettled and cooler, even across the southeast by the start of next week until midweek, it then shows an increasingly settled and warmer spell later next week across most of England and Wales which lasts into the weekend as high pressure builds in close to the south..as for Fi, that flip flops from run to run, on this run it shows a changeable broadly westerly pattern with occasional ridging across the south.
  17. Frosty.
    Yes Matthew I'm red with envy, nah I mean green
  18. Frosty.
    The good news for those of us who know about the current eastern US heatwave and are green with envy is that a cold front sweeps south from chicago and it turns cooler and fresher for the weekend...The bad news is they are expecting the heat to build north again next week with temps into the 90's even across New Hampshire. The good news for us is there could be a spell of fine and warmer weather developing from later next week, at least for England and Wales as the Azores high ridges NE across the south but I would love some of that north American heat before this summer is done!
  19. Frosty.
    Will you lay off with those blue crayons! They are for winter
  20. Frosty.
    Looking closer at the GEFS 6z perturbations, almost all of them show high pressure either building in or already centred over the UK by T+168 hours so a spell of generally settled and warm weather could be just a week away, in the meantime the next few days look warm across the s /e. :- )
  21. Frosty.
    Time for some good news, despite the awful summer we are experiencing, the GEFS 6z mean shows high pressure ridging in later next week which lasts into week 2 with a spell of settled and warm weather, at least across the south of the UK. Further on the Azores highs influence does wax and wane but shows occasional spells of settled and warm weather, again, more so further south.
  22. Frosty.
    I'm just gobsmacked by the bad luck we are still having. .no winter, no spring and so far. No summer. Surely it can't go on like this month after month!
  23. Frosty.
    The Gfs 6z op run shows an increasingly cool unsettled spell in the short term but then high pressure builds in from the southwest through the second half of next week with increasingly fine and warm weather, especially further south. There is another changeable blip in low res which is followed by more high pressure and warmth.. considering the way this summer has turned out so far, this run should be welcomed!
  24. Frosty.
    This is what sidney thinks of knockers chart above
  25. Frosty.
    No worries William :-)
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