Frosty.

Does anyone remember how good the Gem was yesterday? Well, this is how the 12z looks this evening, nothing like as warm or settled, just for those who say I only post anticyclonic charts...I don't, however, at least the run ends with high pressure ridging in from the atlantic / Azores. My opinion is this won't be the outlook, the met office update sounds a lot warmer for the end of the week, at least across the southern half of the uk and early into week 2 with high pressure for a time later this coming week gradually giving way to very warm and humid unstable conditions with a risk of thundery downpours with the northwest of the UK in a cooler Atlantic regime.

I hope I won't be spending the rest of this summer searching for warm anticyclonic weather on perturbation such and such at T+288 hours range..lol but anyways, I am today and I'm looking for signs of sustainable high pressure and I will of course keep looking because I'm desperate now for this cool cloudy summer to get its act together, here are some pleasant Gefs 6z perturbations in Fi.

Good idea, and look at this, mount teide even gets snow which is more than we get on low ground in southern britain during our winters. and of course, they have great summer's. Apologies Rob, I shouldn't have gone off topic..like I am now too

Good idea, and look at this, mount teide even gets snow which is more than we get on low ground in southern britain during our winters. and of course, they have great summer's.

Yes Rob, I don't think I have known a summer as cloudy and cool as this one, and not forgetting the rain...and another typically cruel north / south divide coming up by the looks of it unless by some miracle the ecm is right for once!

Amazing isn't it, the Gfs 6z shows summer arriving in the south by the end of the week but for scotland it's like October, 10-14c, what a joke!

That's par for the course this summer, I would just like a spell of high pressure and warmth seeing as its supposed to be July.

Thanks, I get a lot of critcism so a bit of praise is welcomed

I don't care whether it happens or not, I'm just reporting what the Ecm shows :- )

The Ecm 00z would bring the best (hottest) summer weather since July 1st 2015 Now...

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a marked change next week from a cool showery trough dominated first half to a gradually warmer and drier second half as high pressure builds in across the south of the UK with probably a good deal of sunshine for a few days at least later next week into the weekend and turning rather warm / very warm and more humid by the end of next week and probable heavy thundery showers but still with sunny spells.

Cheers Greenland..now moving on

Sorry but that's not true, i show charts in hi res and low res but I make no apology for looking for warm anticyclonic weather since we haven't seen any yet this summer.

And a few days later it's warm and settled with low to mid 20s celsius..can't wait.

It's ok Greenland, you keep showing the worst charts and deny anything warmer is coming..

Here's the GEFS 12z mean for late next week including the weekend, we would see temps into the mid 20's celsius across the south of the UK. High pressure and warmth for a change! :- ) Very good agreement across the models for summery weather beyond the upcoming but short-lived cooler showery blip.

I think the Ecm 12z would bring temps into the low 80's F across the s / se at the end of next week...anyway, nice warm charts..

There is no straw clutching from me, the models show a warm up and high pressure in under a week which is semi reliable timeframe, to ignore that completely is very misleading.

Because you ignored the warm spell the op runs and ens mean is showing later next week into week 2...why?

Well said Weather Boy :- )

That's more like it Malcolm, show some daytime warmth instead of the middle of a cool night.

The Gem 12z shows high pressure building in late next week and as the high migrates to the NE we draw warmer and more humid air up from the near continent with mid 20s celsius becoming quite widespread but also an increasing chance of thundery showers breaking out between very warm spells of sunshine.

But you had to show a midnight chart didn't you Day times look very pleasant next weekend

Are you ignoring the warm spell later next week that the models are showing ? Looks like next weekend will be warm and sunny with potential to become very warm for a while, even the met office see very warm potential. :-)

The Gfs 12z op run gives us something to look forward to later next week including the weekend into the early part of week 2 with high pressure building in with plenty of sunshine and becoming warmer with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius...looks good and who knows, the reality could be even better :-)