Frosty.

Agreed, any potential pattern change is still at least 3 weeks away. Looking at the GEFS 00z mean, still no support for the Azores high to build in by mid July..more runs needed..lol

Looking at the GEFS 00z mean, still no support for the Azores high to build in by mid July..more runs needed..lol

Yes pm it's turning into a crap summer, that's for sure :-(

The GEFS 00z mean shows the weak ridge across the south @ T+120 hours so some respite from the cool unsettled summer in the south for a time next week.

True John, it's a feeble ridge, hardly worthy being called a ridge but at least it indicates a better week than this week further south. Apologies for messing up the quote

Agreed, the ukmo 00z shows the Azores high ridging into the south of the UK next week which would give some fine pleasantly warm weather, at least across the south of the UK so not as unseasonably cool or as unsettled as this week, not as bad further north either.

Nobody seems to be posting so I will describe the Ecm 12z operational run. It's changeable / unsettled throughout, however, there is a suggestion that southern areas could have at least some dry and bright weather for a time during the first half of next week as a ridge flirts with the far south but all in all its showing more rain interspersed with sunshine and heavy showers with a risk of thunder. Temperature wise, not cool all the time, not as cool as this week, there are some warmer days and more humid at times with temps into the low 20's celsius, mainly further south but generally temps around average, quite breezy at times too.

Just to prove that not all the Gefs 12z perturbations are as vile as the Gfs 12z op, here is some eye candy, especially P11 / 17

The models are havin a laff, mid July on the Gfs 12z... Should I laugh or cry or both! At least it's deep Fi

I may get my wish, although the Gefs mean out to mid July shows no improvement yet. The experts are still mentioning a change to warmer more summery weather by the latter part of July, it's been shunted back a little but it's still there so hopefully the mean charts will start to show a more sw / ne orientated jet with the Azores high gradually building towards the uk in the not too distant future. At least the MO are offering hope that this summer, which is on hold at the moment, will eventually deliver what most of us want to see.

The Gfs 6z op shows a ridge building across the south for a time next week with drier, sunnier and warmer weather and the GEFS 6z perturbations show some warm and anticyclonic outcomes, hopefully they will increase on future runs so the mean improves for the mid July period...if there is good news, i will show it!

If you are going to cry, you need the appropriate smiley

Agreed, there is currently a lack of support for the Azores high to build in by mid July according to the GEFS 00z mean. I'm not giving up on summer 2016 but I was expecting much better than what we have been served up so far, it's a sub standard summer...so far!

No signal so far that we can see on our free public domain models but of course we can't see what the met office are seeing for several days now which is a potential mid July pattern change, I'm sure they must be looking at something better than we are..here's hoping!

Here's some more potential for warm or very warm anticyclonic weather towards mid July from the GEFS 12z perturbations, there are a few beauties in there too (p4)..even though the gfs op runs have been poor doesn't mean we will have to endure weeks and weeks of sub standard summer weather. The met office continue to mention a possible mid July pattern change, indeed they seem to be increasing in confidence of that occurring and at least I found some eye candy for those of us who are willing a big improvement in summer 2016! :- )

Better news from the Ecm 12z which shows high pressure ridging into the south of the uk later next week, becoming warmer and more settled, at least for the south of the BI..much better than the gfs.

Exactly Phil, they ignore all logic and basically tell a pack of lies. Exacta said there will be a heatwave next week, what a load of tosh, the models have even taken a backward step since yesterday with no sign of a pattern change in the next few weeks / foreseeable future.

Further into low res is even worse with yet more troughs and even cooler air from the north, right out to mid July with max temps of 16 / 17c .. much colder in Scotland.. really pathetic.

No real improvement from the Gfs 12z next week with the powerful jetstream much further south than it should be. Max temps barely reaching average in the south with 20-21c at best, cooler further n / nw. It looks changeable next week, perhaps not as unsettled as this week but it's poor for the height of summer.

As I said, mid / longer range there is no sign of the Azores high leaving home, if anything it gets worse towards the end on the GEFS 6z mean. Of course this doesn't mean we won't see a pattern change later in July.

Yes it's a poor summer so far, even the BBC forecasters are saying it and the models today look worse than yesterday with the GEFS 6z mean not indicating the Azores high will build in by mid July even, today it looks flat zonal in that range and I'm starting to worry about this summer even though we are only 33 percent into it.

I see no sign of reaching 40c this summer, 20c looks difficult enough

The Gfs 6z op is autumnal, there is nothing summery about it with trough after trough after trough after trough and temps on the cool side...shockingly poor for the height of summer and nothing even for someone like me who tries to look on the bright side.

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows some weak Azores ridge influence across the south next week as it nudges in from the southwest so the best of any fine and pleasantly warm weather would be in the south, not completely dry but drier compared to this week with max temps close to 70F in the south but nearer low to mid 60's F further n / nw. The north of the UK looks most unsettled through the next 10 days.

The Ecm 12z op has an encouraging ending with the Azores ridge nicely aligned to build NE from T+240 hours. In the meantime it looks unsettled and rather cool / breezy through to the end of this week including the weekend but then next week it turns into a north / south split with the trough filling and drifting away NE as a ridge of high pressure extends across southern areas with at least some fine and pleasantly warm weather further south and east, actually the n / nw would improve for a time too, certainly looking better than this week will be and although it looks generally more changeable / unsettled and cooler across northern uk for most of the time, day 10 onwards shows good potential for most of the UK going forward.