Frosty.

Well I'm seeing some positive signs William, certainly the ecm and gefs mean have improved so hopefully some fine and warmer weather isn't too far away, at least for the south of the UK but we have an unsettled and cooler spell to get through first...fingers crossed for the rest of this summer. :- )

This is much better than the Ecm 12z ensemble mean last night, the Azores high ridges in much stronger with increasingly fine and warm weather across the southern half of the uk from late next week onwards.. I think this is encouraging in a summer so far starved of summery weather!

Knocker isn't impressed but sidney loved those Gefs 12z perturbations!

Check out these GEFS 12z perturbations, most of them show warm anticyclonic conditions by day 8 / 9 onwards for several days, this is by far the strongest support so far for a more summery spell, at least across the southern half of the UK but some of them show a nationwide settled spell in the not too distant future.. very encouraging IMO.

Yes we have Gavin, hopefully all our posting of anticyclonic charts in FI will bear fruit for the majority on here who want to see a fine spell which lasts longer than 1 day!

Well this looks very encouraging from later next week on the GEFS 12z mean with a strong build of the Azores high (ridge) across the southern half of the UK which would change the cool unsettled spell early next week into something warmer and more settled with plenty of sunshine, at least further south, it's what this summer is crying out for, some warmth and sun.. there then follows a more changeable blip but then another surge from the Azores high later in the run!

I thought you said you wouldn't be posting in here during the winter? Oh dear, more woodshed jokes and red crayons...anyway, role on summer

Signs of improvement towards the end of the Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight with next weeks trough gradually being replaced by a ridge of high pressure extending across southern areas with the weather in the south becoming drier, brighter and warmer, yes it's crumbs but at least it's something.

No wonder us summer heat fans have the blues, it's bound to change at some point though and I canny wait!

This evening's Ecm 12z won't win any awards apart from the weather equivalent of the golden raspberry movie awards they host in Hollywood. It's an unsettled and generally cool run post the weekend with only the most fleeting ridges in the south but generally it's a shocker for the height of summer, I've said that too often since June 1st... hope our luck changes soon!

Ok who wants high pressure? The GEFS 12z perturbations have quite a lot of it, there's a fair amount of dross too but we know all about dross so far this summer don't we, and I'm not just talking about Roy's useless England football team! I've chosen two timeframes in Fi for the obvious reason that we pretty much know that at least most of next week looks cool & unsettled but being the optimist that I am, there are some nice charts here that I wanted to share with those of you who don't access the charts and hopefully one of them will give us the summer most of us crave...p4 would be nice!

The GEFS 12z mean shows encouraging signs that the Azores high will ridge across the south of the UK at times during the next few weeks, it even occurs for a time next week so the south at least wouldn't be cool and unsettled for the whole of next week unlike the n / w but it's week 2 when the high ridges in with more success bringing increasingly fine and warmer weather, at least across southern uk.

The easiest way to describe the Gfs 12z op run is ridge, trough, ridge, trough etc... right through the run with a mix of cool, average and warm temps, some dry and sunny weather, a lot of heavy showers with thunder and spells of persistent rain with the best of any fine and warm weather across the south / southeast. This saturday looks unsettled for most of the n / w but largely fine and warm in the s /se with 25 celsius as an unusually deep depression heading past NW Scotland scoops up air from more of a tropical source rather than Atlantic but we all turn cooler and fresher on sunday from the west with sunshine and a few showers, much cooler and more showery across the northwest of the UK, then a cool showery spell early next week followed by a transient midweek ridge before another spell of very unsettled and windy weather later in the week but at least there is some high pressure at times.

I'm sure there are many of us asking where our summer is hiding and I found it on the GEFS 6z perturbations which show quite a few warm and anticyclonic scenarios, even a plume or two...I really hope we will see a marked improvement by late July at the latest and then a summery August!

The GEFS 6z mean shows a cool unsettled spell next week but looking further ahead, the trough responsible fills and drifts away NE as high pressure builds in from the southwest with the south of the uk in particular becoming warmer and generally more settled, it looks as though the Azores high could start to influence our weather more and more through the second half of July and hopefully through into August too!

The Gfs 6z op run is showing a warm day on saturday with mid 20s c in favoured spots of the s / e where it looks dry with sunny spells but thundery rain across central areas, by sunday it turns cooler and fresher, breezy from the west but also bright with sunny periods with just a few showers in the south, more showery and cooler further northwest. Next week looks cool and unsettled as a trough dominates the UK with a NWly airflow bringing plenty of heavy and thundery showers but with sunshine in between, chilly nights in places too with mid to high single digits c minima possibe. Towards the end of next week an area of high pressure pushes in from the west and transfers to the east displacing the remnants of the showery trough and low res in general looks better with at least some warm anticyclonic conditions between shallow showery troughs, the run ends with high pressure starting to build in again.

The Ecm 00z shows a scorcher for France this weekend and even southern / southeast England looks very warm and humid with temps reaching the low 80's F with a brief incursion of 564 dam thicknesses and with +15 T850s just the other side of the English channel. Please for gawd sake let us have some heat this summer already..

The ukmo 00z doesn't look as good for sunday as it did at 12z last evening, more in line with ecm / gfs / gem this morning..i.e. turning more unsettled during sunday

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight shows a trough swinging down into the north of the UK next week which would mean sunshine and heavy showers with a risk of thunder and temps close to average but from later next week the Azores high extends a ridge across southern areas with the weather becoming warmer and more settled but remaining changeable across northern UK.Hopefully the Azores high is going to feature more and more through the second half of the summer.

Glad I could help :- )

Wow anyweather you look a lot like prince charles, striking resemblance! Yes the models look very unsettled next week but I'm hopeful things will improve after that.

The Euro 12z models don't even agree about sunday, the ukmo 12z is the pick at T+120, the ecm much more progressive. Hope Wimbledon does have a very warm and largely settled final weekend.

I just had a look through the GEFS 12z perturbations and found plenty of anticyclonic potential just beyond day 10 so hopefully the second half of July will be more summery!

Next week does look unsettled as another trough swings SE from Iceland with sunshine and heavy showers with thunder and bands of rain with a few pleasant interludes in the south but I am more optimistic we could see more of the Azores high than so far this summer from around mid July onwards, especially across the southern half of the BI...and I really wouldn't rule out a stronger anticyclonic spell before the end of the month.

The GEFS 12z mean indicates the Azores high will be ridging in close to the sw / s following next weeks generally unsettled spell. It looks like becoming more of a n / s split with more in the way of fine and warm spells across southern uk and progressively more changeable / unsettled further n / nw but I wouldn't rule out more of an anticyclonic period at some point during the second half of July.