Frosty.

Yes it's looking good during the week ahead as a ridge builds in, becoming drier, brighter and warmer, more humid too, at least across southern Britain with temps around 21/23c 72f...much better than recently :- )

The Gfs 18z op run shows a warm up next week, especially further south, comfortably into the low 20s celsius with some favoured spots closer to the mid 20s c for a time through the 2nd half of next week, becoming more humid too. Becoming much drier and brighter across the southern half of the UK next week too as a ridge of high pressure drifts across from the west and then declines SE late next week with the more unsettled weather further to the northwest, eventually spreading to all areas. Further into Fi, it's changeable with temps slightly up and down, the south even flirts with some warmth from France but as for next week, it's noticeably drier and warmer than the last week or so, at least for most of England and wales.

What a pleasant change, next week should feel like July instead of late September I think it will turn out warmer for the south than the BBC are currently forecasting next week (21 / 22c) but if the Ecm is right, raise that to 24 / 26c in the warmest spots further south during the 2nd half of next week. The S / SE of the UK looks drier next week under higher pressure but more unsettled, breezier and relatively cooler across the northwest corner of the BI with that unsettled weather eventually spreading S / E to remaining parts by the end of next week or early week 2.

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean is pretty much like the operational run with a ridge building in during the first half of next week and temperatures gradually rising with potentially mid 20s celsius for the south of the UK with the SE then staying warm and humid for longest but pleasantly warmer than this week further north too. So, although the overall pattern remains changeable / unsettled, some fine weather is expected next week, more so than this week, particularly the further s / se you are and noticeably warmer than this week. Towards the end of the run it becomes generally unsettled from the NW with temps around average.

The Ecm 12z looks warmer as next week goes on with temps rising into the low to mid 20's celsius across southern uk, high teens to low 20's further nw and potentially reaching 80F in the s/se for a time later next week with 564 dam thicknesses into the s between T+144 / 168 hours. A ridge of high pressure settles things down for a time next week, again, more so further s but with pressure then falling and increasing humidity, it looks like thundery showers for the s, becoming more unsettled to the NW and fresher air spreads from the west before another ridge tries building NE...it's a warmer run next week, much more like July should be!

The ukmo 12z also shows the weak ridge bringing better weather than we have seen this week, especially further south / southeast and also suggests higher temps, into the low 20s celsius, around 21/22c and maybe a notch higher for london and the SE.

The GEFS 12z mean shows a ridge of high pressure building in through the first half of next week bringing drier, brighter and warmer weather for a few days, especially further s / se with temps rising into the low 20s celsius which would make a pleasant change from the mid to upper teens c most of us have had this week. The ridge subsides SE later next week with pressure falling to the northwest but at least it looks more seasonal next week.

The Gfs 6z op shows a weak ridge of high pressure for a time next week with some drier and sunnier weather but the overall theme remains changeable / unsettled with troughs but with transient ridges too and temps next week look more respectable, into the low 20s celsius.

The GEFS 00z mean looks better, especially by mid July with more Azores high influence and warmer temps, especially in the south, better jet alignment to make it easier for the high to build in through the 2nd half of July... hopefully!

The Gfs 00z op run is easier on the eye this morning with temperatures gradually becoming more respectable, into the low 20s celsius and more in the way of high pressure (ridging) through the run, the 00z even ends with a hot plume drifting up from the near continent. In the meantime, we are still on the cool side of the jetstream, the jet is much further south than most of us want it to be in the height of summer, parts of scotland has even had a ground frost but things change next week. A ridge of high pressure builds NE across the uk and most of us have a window of largely fine weather with temps rising, especially through midweek with 21/22c instead of the pathetic14/16c some of us have endured this week..it's not a settled run, we would still have more rain and heavy showers at times but with spells of fine weather too and temps generally feeling more like July!

Fair comment knocker, I'm splitting hairs but it does look a bit warmer than this week at least and if the ukmo 12z was right, rather drier and brighter too, at least further south. :- )

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a ridge building in close to the south next week and warmer upper air (850s) flooding in from the southwest, the south would potentially see 24/25c for a time after midweek and it also looks relatively warmer than this week in other areas too. It's not a settled outlook by any means, the northwest corner of the BI looks most unsettled but overall it's not looking as cloudy, cool or rainy as this week, indeed the south would have some fine spells, more so than this week at least.

Temps would actually be a little above average for a time next week if the ecm is right with low to mid 20s c in the south and more settled in the south for a few days, certainly warmer than this week anyways!

Yes Matthew, I'm encouraged by the Ecm 12z and especially the ukmo, next week doesn't look as cool or as unsettled, indeed it looks warm further south with some fine spells.

Good news for us is its warmer next week from the Ecm 12z, would be nice to see mid 20s c again in the south.

The Ecm 12z shows a ridge of high pressure building across the south next week and it becomes warmer too with temps into the low 20's c but nearer 24/25c in parts of the s /se with +10 T850 uppers flooding across southern areas. It's not a settled outlook next week, there would be some heavy and thundery showers post ridge but compared to this week it's a significant improvement, at least further south.

The GEFS 12z mean is much better than the 6z in the medium to longer range, it's less trough dominated to the northwest and the jet is better aligned, more towards wsw / ene with the azores high pressure ridging to the southwest that bit closer to the uk so it would mean a relatively warmer outlook with more in the way of dry and fine weather, especially further south, not a settled outlook but certainly more summer like than the unsettled and cooler looking 6z mean...compare them and you will see what I mean, I posted the 6z mean earlier.

If anything, the ukmo 12z is better than the 00z with pressure that bit higher across the south of the UK in particular next week so if this was to verify, it would be a drier and warmer week further south with more sunshine, lighter winds and temps comfortably into the low 20's celsius, a touch higher in favoured spots.

The thing is, I hate delivering bad news because nobody wants to read negative comments but that's the current situation sadly.

Followed by november, December, January and February warmer than normal..

What's happened to that heatwave exacta weather were forecasting this week?Lol. This summer is going pear shaped as the met office signal for a pattern change to summery weather by mid / late July has now been dropped so even though it's only July 1st, it looks like another poor month ahead to join the poor June..not good.

Bad news I'm afraid, the GEFS 6z mean looks flat zonal beyond mid July with no hint that the Azores high will build in and even worse than that, the met office signal for a mid / late July pattern change to warmer and more settled has disappeared. If you want heat, probably best to fly well away from the UK this month!

This is some of the worst output I have ever seen for the height of summer with the jetstream much further south and firing Atlantic lows at the uk almost non stop. Temperatures below average, even cold at times in scotland and a risk of ground frosts. This is a really shocking Gfs 6z, no sign of summer and I feel sorry for anyone having a holiday in the uk during the next 2/3 weeks.

34c is too hot, 25c would do nicely...and stop gloating!

The models look autumnal again today, it's hard to pin down the reason why it's so rubbish and why the uk seems incapable of having decent seasonal weather these days!