Frosty.

The GEFS 12z mean shows a more settled and warmer pattern becoming established through early august as the Azores high builds into the uk, the PFJ is pushed way northwest. These nice benign looking charts tie in with what Exeter have been and still are predicting for most of next month...reasons to be positive..plenty.

You are way too negative mushy, there has been lots of good charts for the early August period today and previously,there are good signs for August, I'm surprised you refuse to acknowledge that!

You forgot to mention there is a spell of high pressure from the end of next week which lasts well into the following week on the gfs 12z with dry weather and sunny spells, not warm but pleasant in the sun before it all goes Pete tong later in FI. As for the August outlook, the met office are on-board with largely fine and warm weather for most of August which is good enough for me.

The GEFS 6z mean shows better times ahead from early August onwards with high pressure building in from the southwest and bringing increasingly settled and warmer weather to most of the UK, especially the southern half. I can understand the caution but with the experts on-board for a nicer late summer and the charts steadily improving in the mid / longer range, I think we will see a more summery pattern evolve, if not by the start of August, soon after.

The Gfs 6z shows pressure rising later next week bringing drier and sunnier weather to the south as a ridge of high pressure pushes east across southern britain but further north it stays unsettled, however, by early August we have a much stronger anticyclone building in from the Atlantic and slowly migrating eastwards with a nationwide increasingly warm and settled spell which would improve further beyond the end of the run. I think we are on course for a pattern change by early next month with high pressure firmly in the ascendancy by then. I've just read the latest met office extended outlook which is continuing to firm up on a more summery period for most of August, especially for the south of the uk

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a longer lasting high than the op which has an Atlantic low applying pressure to it by T+240 hours, no such concerns with the mean.

The Ecm 00z shows high pressure building in from the west through the second half of next week with a more settled look to the weather, at least for a time with temperatures slowly rising through that period.

The Gfs 12z turns into an absolute beauty through low res with high pressure domination and the formation of a blocking Scandi high and even a brief link up with the Azores high on this run which is nice to see, it's a classic way for a summery pattern to evolve from the azores. These type of charts are what I'm expecting to see increase and gradually moving from low res to high res by the time we reach the end of July / start of August, it looks to me like the change of month will bring a marked change in our weather...for the better

Add the 6z to the list and plenty more to come! I'm really positive about August prospects, this is a much better 6z than yesterday and having read Glacier Point's earlier post regarding August, the last month of summer is now hugely anticipated. I hope GP is going to have the time to post regularly, it will be fantastic for netweather if he can.

The Gfs 12z looks rather more summery into early August than the 6z with a spell of warm anticyclonic weather and becoming very warm in the south with the promise of much more widespread settled weather once that trough fills and drifts away north. The met office seem very confident that a large part of August will be much more like most of us on here are hoping for and I expect we will be seeing lots of very summery low res charts in the days ahead.

I'm really optimistic about August weather prospects with high pressure building in from the southwest and bringing a largely settled and warmer spell to most of the UK which is exactly what the experts are saying and the gfs 6z is hinting at. Now that early August is within gfs range, it will be fascinating to see the change to anticyclonic conditions evolve. The south has had a good summer so far whilst in the north/northwest of the UK it's been abysmal but I think we will all see a good deal of fine and warm / very warm / occasionally hot weather for the majority of the final month of this meteorological summer.

Sorry Biggin but they don't show mid 20's celsius for the next 10 days, not even in southern England.

The Ecm 12z temperature wise looks average in the south where it also looks drier and brighter on most days, below average in central and especially northern britain where it looks generally more unsettled. The warmest day is next Monday with potential for mid 20's celsius for most of England and wales but also rather unsettled start to next week but then the warmth drains away south with Scotland looking rather cool, especially late next week, what a dreadful summer Scotland is having, if its not flooding its cool winds! I couldn't find any signs of even a brief plume on any of the 12z output. What I did see are signs of the Atlantic cranking up on the gfs/gem.

The main point of my post was that coldies wait and wait, and then wait some more for decent height rises to the northwest in winter and it becomes frustrating beyond belief. I already have a feeling the upcoming winter will be a good one for coldies thanks to a strong El Nino and cold PDO cycle (Pacific Decadal Oscillation).

This may sound controversial but I would sacrifice the rest of this summer if it meant the Greenland high remained strong for the rest of this year and gave us a much better chance of a colder autumn and especially winter with a southerly tracking jet. I love hot weather in summer but I love cold winters more!

Indeed

The Gfs 00z gives us an early taste of autumn in low res, notice the little pockets of cold air starting to appear in the arctic, they become much more organised through August and gives coldies a tingle of anticipation for the winter ahead which will surely be better than the last one.

Looks like it's migrating south to me..lol

We just need this Greenland high to persist for another 5 months

Really I can't see anything to moan about for folk in southern parts of the uk next week with temps of 25c plus and high pressure building in close to the south for a time according to the gem 12z, gfs is even better!

It looks very warm /hot in your area next week, the hottest part of the UK..lucky you!

Comparing like for like, today's Gfs 12z is much better than 24 hours ago, this one shows a lot of high pressure for the s/e from Sunday and throughout next week which is reinforced by another surge of HP from the southwest, it becomes increasingly very warm / hot, especially for the south & south eastern half of England. More unsettled and relatively cooler further n/w. The met office outlook for the first half of August sounds really good too with a generally settled and warm / very warm spell.

Ok here goes, the gfs 12z is pure garbage, I really liked the 6z but the 12z is pish poor, as is the Gem. In summer I don't want to see cool limpet troughs stuck over the uk taking forever to fill, I want warm anticyclones and spanish plumes..rant over!!!

The Gfs 6z looks increasingly fine and warm next week with pressure slowly rising, just a few showers dotted around early in the week but becoming largely dry with long sunny spells and light winds, it becomes very warm / hot through low res.

Looking at the next few days, the Gfs 00z shows increasingly fine and warmer weather with more in the way of sunshine, thursday being very warm in the south, into the low 80's F but more humid too with scattered thundery showers later, bright with sunny spells and fresher on Friday for most areas with a few showers, mostly further n/w, meanwhile, a band of moderate to heavy rain spreads across north western UK later on Thursday, affecting the far north on Friday into saturday. The weekend looks like sunshine and showers, some heavy with hail and thunder and temperatures in the low 70's F but progressively cooler further north by north west, the far south/se may escape mostly fine. Next week shows a nw/se split with north western UK more unsettled and cooler but with fine and warmer interludes. Further south and east, especially the south eastern half of england looks warm / very warm with a good deal of fine and sunny weather before turning cooler and fresher by the end of next week...this run shows a spell of very acceptable summery weather for at least the southern half of the UK for most of next week.