Frosty.

Sensational Ecm 12z guys, next week turns into a scorcher. Exciting times ahead, BBQ weather, and as Alan partridge would say, lovely stuff.

The Gem is back on track following its 00z wobble, that's 3 stonking gem runs out of 4, add the amazing ecm 00z and the stunning gfs 12z and really I'm starting to believe we could be in for a heatwave starting next week..90 F + next week?..let's hope so and let's also hope the Ecm 12z is a gem of a run.

The Gfs 12z is sensational..lovely stuff..I thought the 6z was good but this is the best run of the summer so far with many days of very warm / hot and sunny weather and warm clear nights, it's just full of gorgeous weather, yesterday's gfs 12z was instantly forgettable but this one is EPIC!..I'm looking forward to next week now, if it's even half as good as this it will still easily be the best spell of the summer so far.

The GEFS 6z mean shows most of the UK becoming warm / very warm next week with temperatures widely into the low to mid 20's c and high 20's celsius across the south/southeast of England and humidity levels rising through next week. Early next week looks like becoming fine for all areas with the south and east holding on to the fine and sunny conditions for longest whereas the north and west, after a fine start next week look like turning unsettled with spells of rain, heavy at times from midweek.

The Gfs 6z turns into a cracker of a run, early next week high pressure builds northeastwards through the uk and migrates to Scandinavia and intensifies and with a trough to the west / southwest, the UK becomes warm / very warm, breezy & settled with long sunny spells for much of next week with continental air spreading to all parts, even northern Scotland has very warm weather next week, eventually it breaks down from the southwest with torrential rain but I would very happily take what this run shows next week....BANK

Well it's amazing, the Gem 00z-12z yesterday were showing what the Ecm is now showing this morning which is sensational heatwave conditions next week, fantastic Ecm 00z charts with temperatures into the 90's F.

Since there was nothing worth posting on the Gfs 12z I see nothing wrong with posting these Gem 12z charts this evening. Let's hope we see heatwave conditions next week. The GEM has shown remarkable continuity from the 00z so let's hope it's on the right track.

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, one thing we can be sure about next week is it's not going to be cool, the southeast in particular looks like having generally warm / very warm and humid weather next week and most of the UK looks rather warm, low 20's celsius with the south / southeast having a more continental southerly flow, nearer mid to high 20's celsius. The north and west of the BI look very unsettled next week with spells of heavy rain but with fine intervals and temps around average. The southeast is likely to have the best of the sunshine and dry weather but with a risk of occasional heavy and thundery rain. It's a fairly typical summer nw/se split with lower heights to the northwest and continental high pressure to the southeast.

The Gfs 6z saved the best until last, temperatures into the 90's F in the south through early July.

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows its too early to write off our chances of a surge of continental warmth / heat to bathe the UK next week, the Atlantic trough is further west and a large swathe of the UK becomes very warm and humid with mid to high 20's celsius, we still have a good chance in my opinion.

The Gfs 12z shows a standoff next week between a slow moving Atlantic trough and high pressure building to the east/southeast of the UK, this means our weather would be warm and humid with a tropical maritime airflow covering the UK and I think there is potential for an even warmer more southerly continental flow. As things stand, Sunday into early next week trend warm into the mid 20's celsius, the north and west of the UK have a band of persistent rain but away from that it looks drier and sunnier. In the meantime, this week will bring a good deal of fine and pleasantly warm conditions but with some showery rain from time to time.

The Gfs 6z shows the weather turning very warm or hot for a time early next week across the southern half of the BI, as high as mid 80's F in the southeast. Looking at the bigger picture, a fair amount of fine and pleasantly warm conditions this week under a ridge of high pressure, not completely dry but a decent spell for many of us with temperatures into the low 20's celsius. Most of the rain on this run is across the north and northwest of the UK. I think we are looking at a typical nw/se split for the next few weeks with the southeast having the warmest and driest spells but we should all have some fine and warm weather at times.

The Ecm 12z shows a lot of fine and pleasantly warm weather to come during the next 7-10 days, especially further south and then it hots up in the south, could be 30 celsius + in the southeast with a hot and sultry, thundery looking T+240 chart. Like I have said before, I think we have a good chance of a widespread warm up through week 2...it's great to see the 564 dam line / + 15 T850 hPA encroaching into the UK and I hope this is what we can look forward to seeing a lot more of during July and August.

Agreed, I'm really encouraged by the 12z runs so far, the gefs 12z mean offers hope for a widespread warm up through week 2.

The GEFS 12z mean shows very warm continental air making significant inroads into the UK from next weekend onwards, we would see temperatures well into the 20's celsius quite widely across the UK and certainly very warm in the south and a lot of fine and sunny weather too with the Azores high ridging up through most of the uk...i'm really impressed by these charts.

The Gfs 12z shows a good deal of warm and fine weather for the south and especially the southeast and occasionally very warm. I think it won't take much change to the current pattern to see continental heat reach the UK in the coming weeks.

I wouldn't call it desperate, even the met office think there will be periods of very warm and fine + humid thundery outbreaks for at least the south and east of the UK through towards the end of June and early July which is the main reason why I posted those 6z charts, because there is a good chance of very summery weather on the way...and there is a signal for more widespread drier than average conditions from mid July.

The Gfs 6z through low res turns into a BEAUTY across the south / southeast of the UK with high pressure building in and soaring temperatures into the 80's F. For what it's worth, I think there is a very good chance, it will be great for Wimbledon if it does.

I really like the Ecm 12z this evening, next week looks increasingly fine with pressure rising and becoming warmer. I think there will be plenty of settled weather from Tuesday onwards, especially for the southern half of the UK and there is potential for very warm air to push up from the continent into the south later next week and next weekend into the following week with the Atlantic trough held at bay.

After an unseasonably cool and unsettled start to next week, the Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a warming trend and less unsettled too, at least for the south and east with the south of England into the mid 20's celsius range later next week and into the following week.

After a cool unsettled start to next week, the Ecm 12z shows an improvement with pressure rising and temperatures rising too, becoming largely fine and pleasantly warm with good sunny spells and light winds, at least across the southern half of the UK and especially further south / southeast but still with an ongoing risk of a few sharp and thundery showers at times. The northwest of the BI looks generally cooler with less sunshine and more in the way of rain and showers which has been the story of the spring and summer so far.

The Gfs 6z shows a decent window of largely fine and pleasantly warm weather across most of England and Wales for much of next week with broken clouds and good spells of sunshine after a very cool and rainy monday with temperatures then recovering into the low 20's celsius and heading towards mid 20's c further southeast. The north and west, especially the northwest of the UK looks generally unsettled and relatively cooler with a fine and warmer day here and there but the southeast of the BI, as you would expect, has the best of the weather with plenty of dry and rather warm conditions being more influenced by continental high pressure, still with a risk of sharp showers at times and the occasional longer spell of rain.

The Ecm 00z doesn't look bad next week, especially for the south and east, there is a moderate pressure rise with increasingly fine and pleasantly warm conditions and another pressure rise for the south / southeast at the end of next week when it also becomes very warm for a time...it's no washout, even across the northwest.

The Gfs 00z shows an improving picture across the south and east next week after a cool wet monday, becoming warmer with more in the way of dry and sunny weather but still a risk of a few sharp thundery showers developing from time to time but the main thrust of unsettled weather next week becomes concentrated across the northwestern corner of the uk. Further into FI becomes more generally settled for a time as high pressure builds north and becomes centred to the southeast of the BI and temperatures soar into the low 80's F before a breakdown from the west.