Frosty.

At least the Ecm 12z shows rather warm air for most of the UK during the second half of next week with low to mid 20's celsius, driest and sunniest for the south and east but with a risk of thundery showers later, generally more unsettled for the north and west.

The GEFS 12z mean shows support for high pressure to eventually build in close to the south, especially around the end of June and start of July with generally warmer and drier conditions and becoming very warm across the south / southeast. There are signs of a nw/se split with the south and east having the best of the weather through the extended outlook covering late June / early July. In the meantime, the next 7-10 days look changeable with temperatures close to average.

The Gfs 12z is a generally changeable run with some fine and pleasantly warm spells of sunshine but with cooler and showery weather at times and occasionally more unsettled with longer spells of rain, some of it heavy and thundery, however, I am quite optimistic we will have something similar to the 6z at the end of June and start of July, mainly because the met office update today mentioned a chance of widespread settled weather at the end of this month.

The Gfs 6z shows high pressure building north from the continent later in low res and then becoming centred to the east / southeast of the UK with increasingly very warm / hot conditions and gradually more humid with a risk of T-Storms, the end of June and early July would be fantastic if this occurs. In the meantime, the models indicate a mixture of sharp showers and lengthy dry spells with warm sunshine.

The Ecm 12z is very similar to the Gfs 12z with pressure rising from sunday, becoming drier and brighter from the northwest with the residual rain across the southeast gradually clearing during Sunday and then early next week shows strengthening high pressure in control and becoming warmer, especially midweek across southern UK but then a low pushes east to the north of the UK with lowering heights to the north east and our high is forced westwards into the Atlantic for a few days with cooler air sweeping southeastwards next Thursday with a risk of a few showers, gradually the high out west starts to drift closer to the UK again and the weather becomes more settled and pleasantly warm just like the Gfs run in low res.

The Gfs 12z shows high pressure developing over the UK on Sunday and persisting early next week, initially rather cool but becoming warmer by Tuesday and rather warm in the southeast midweek but turning unsettled and windier across the far northwest of the uk, it's not completely dry next week in other areas but rainfall amounts look small. Our high drifts west into the Atlantic for a time later next week but then slowly transfers east again. Overall, the next few weeks show a lot of fine weather on this run, especially further south.

Agreed, and I will also BANK the Ecm 12z ensemble mean which is showing increasingly settled and warmer weather next week, thanks to the Azores high.

This evenings GEFS 12z mean shows an increasingly settled outlook from the start of next week and gradually becoming warmer too as the Azores high builds towards the uk, the Gefs / ecm ens mean have been showing this for a few days now and for what it's worth, I think we are going to see a change for the better between mid / late June.

Let's hope so Chris, I'm sure most of us on here would welcome a spell of settled and warm weather, the Ecm 12z looks very promising.

The Gfs 12z shows exciting weather is on the way for the south on friday, exciting for those of us who love thunderstorms, Friday brings storms galore across the south but they will be hit and miss, some areas will stay fine whilst others are at risk of flash flooding, and it will be very warm and humid in the south/southeast, generally mid to high 70's F and low 80's F for the far south. The heavy and thundery rain spreads northwards across england and Wales, becomes more organised and stalls across northern England and north wales where it gradually fizzles out on Saturday. High pressure dominates by next mon/tues with long sunny spells and becoming pleasantly warm again.

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows strong support for the Azores high to build north east and extend a strong ridge across the UK during next week and into following week with increasingly warm, dry and sunny conditions spreading to most of the UK, especially the southern half.

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows the Azores high building a strong ridge across the UK next week so there should be a change to mainly dry and fine weather with light winds, chilly nights under clear skies but after a cool start to next week, daytime maxima recovering to low 20's celsius in southern UK by the second half of next week, mid to high teens c further north.

This evenings Ecm 12z shows high pressure building in nicely next week, initially on the cool side compared to what we will have in the next few days but temperatures recovering to pleasantly warm levels by day but nights look chilly where skies clear, cold enough for a touch of frost in prone locations but the main theme of next week and into the following week is becoming mainly dry with good sunny spells and light winds.

The GEFS 12z mean shows strong Azores high influence for the uk from the start of next week onwards, even more so than the 6z mean, the north of the UK would be settled at times but it's the south of the UK which would have the best of the weather between mid / late June...The current trend is good for those of us looking for fine and dry weather through the second half of June.

The southeast in particular looks very warm and humid on Friday according to the Gfs 12z, could reach 80F and across southern UK in general it will be warm and humid, quite a continental feel to Friday with sunny spells, however, there also looks like being a lot of heavy and persistent thundery rain moving north across England and wales, could be some big storms and there is a risk of localised flooding. Looking ahead to next week, high pressure builds in close to the south which is where the driest and sunniest conditions would be with pleasantly warm temps, gradually reaching the low 20's celsius. This run shows a north / south split next week with northern uk generally less settled and cooler. I'm hoping we will see the Azores high eventually bring a nationwide warm / very warm and settled extended outlook.

Cheers aj, tried to pm you

Actually, I posted gfs 6z charts for the whole of low res, and much of it shows very warm and settled weather, if you are going to be critical of someone, at least get your facts right!

The GEFS 6z mean shows strong support for the Azores high to build in during next week and bring increasingly settled conditions to at least the southern half of the UK. For what it's worth, I think the Azores high will build north east next week and bring a fine and warm spell.

The Gfs 6z shows high pressure building in across the south next week and eventually widespread warmth and anticyclonic, mid 20's celsius for a large swathe of the UK...what a cracking run through low res.

The Gfs 00z shows warmer and more humid weather spreading up from the near continent across England and Wales, becoming very warm in the far south on Thursday and quite widely across the south and southeast on Friday with 26-27c for the SE. Thundery weather with torrential downpours push north during Friday but with sunny spells too. What really caught my eye on this run is the mid to late June period which shows high pressure building in close to the south through next week and then a major change to very warm / hot anticyclonic conditions for the whole country, a north / south split for most of next week with the south having a lot of fine and pleasantly warm weather the north of the UK staying unsettled for a while longer but looking further ahead, these charts would really put the Flaming into June.

In the short term, the Ecm 12z shows increasingly warm and humid conditions spreading up from the continent during the second half of this week associated with a thundery low which is likely to produce torrential downpours in places, the weekend also looks warm and humid in the south with sunshine and thundery showers before high pressure takes over for next week.

The Ecm 12z looks great for next week, becoming dry and warm with a good deal of sunshine, nice charts these.

I like the look of the Gfs 12z next week, becoming warm / very warm across southern UK with high pressure building in across the south, it gets better, turns into a very good run through low res.

Looking further ahead, after a day or so of cooler temperatures at the start of next week, the Gfs 6z shows high pressure building in across the south bringing a return to pleasantly warm and settled conditions, at least for the southern half of the UK.

The Gfs 6z shows very warm and humid air spreading up across England and Wales later this week, warmest in the southeast on friday where 80F could be recorded, a thundery low brings T-Storms risk into the far south late Thursday and the risk of torrential downpours and thunder extends north through Friday into Saturday, there is no cool northerly for England and Wales on this run for next weekend, it stays warm and humid next weekend with sunshine and thundery showers with temps into the low 20's celsius but much lower across northern uk.