Frosty.

The GEFS 12z mean shows there is good support for the Azores high to have an increasing influence on the uk weather next week with a warmer and settled spell, at least for England and Wales.

The Gfs 6z showed a lot of fine and warm weather away from more northern / northwestern parts of the UK but the 12z becomes very warm / hot next week with even the n/nw noticeably less unsettled and warmer at times. It would be great if we get to see charts as good as these within the reliable timeframe. The met office extended outlook is generally very good, especially for England and wales so I expect we will be seeing more runs like this in the days ahead.

It's not largely unsettled at all, the south and east have a lot of fine and warm weather on the 6z.

Well what a cracker the Ecm 12z turned into, another spanish plume event and a buckling jet with high pressure building in the perfect position. I thought the gfs 12z was excellent in low res but this has raised the bar even higher..hope we can tap into the continental heat again soon...lovely stuff.

The GEFS 12z mean shows there is growing support for a warmer and more settled extended outlook which ties in with the very decent met office longer range update today.

Much better Gfs 12z, especially through low res with high pressure building in and intensifying over the uk bringing dry, warm and sunny weather to all parts of the UK. The reliable timeframe looks better too, Thursday looks very warm with sunny spells but then thundery showers developing, Friday turns cooler and fresher but then a nice ridge of high pressure builds north east into next weekend with temperatures starting to rise again. There is some unsettled weather around but most of it misses the southeast and then gradually pressure rises and summery conditions become widespread

Looking further ahead, there are a fair number of 6z perturbations trending towards a more settled further outlook, the reason I'm posting these is because the met office extended outlook is very promising from week 2 onwards with a good deal of fine and warm / very warm weather, especially further south.

Hi weatherguru14, here's the 6z charts for later in the week, I have to say, most of this run is a horror show for the majority of us who want summery weather.

The Gfs 00z low res is very nice this morning with high pressure becoming dominant, at least across the southern half of the uk and temperatures recovering following the cooler unsettled spell. I will be very happy if the weather improves like this run later in july.

The Ecm 12z is better than the gfs/gem and holds the worst of the Atlantic at bay to the northwest. Later next week becomes very warm with temps into the 80's F, the best of the weather in terms of fine and sunny conditions across the s/e and a nice ridge of high pressure builds from the southwest next weekend followed by another pulse of very warm air and then a chance of high pressure building north and east beyond T+240.

The highlight of the Gfs 12z is next Friday which looks very warm and humid for most of England with a brief injection of continental conditions but after a sunny morning, thundery rain spreads from the west. The rest of the run is abysmal with charts I would like to see in winter but not in mid summer!

It's both surprising and disappointing that the latest met office update doesn't mention any warmth / heat later next week considering how good some of the recent models have looked, the ecm 00z especially, even the gfs 6z shows a very warm day next Friday. I actually thought there was a chance of a mini plume for the south. We could be looking at short term pain for long term gain though because the outlook for later in july and into August sounds more summery.

The Gem 00z also has a surge of heat later next week, slightly delayed compared to ecm but thereafter becomes more mobile although still warm in the south. The gfs 00z is not interested but the Ecm 00z is very interested in reloading the very warm / hot and humid continental conditions into the following week. It's a potentially very interesting set up next week imo.

The Ecm 00z shows the south hotting up for a time later next week, next Friday looks a scorcher with low 30's celsius for the s/se and still very warm in the SE into next weekend...and then the ecm says hey..let's have another reload of heat, nice charts

The Ecm 12z is warmer than the 00z, especially further out and its only the far n/nw which has any cool conditions between T+96/120 hours. The s/e look warmest with a pulse of very warm and humid air from the continent pushing up across the s/se later next week, close to 30c 86f for a time, the southeast is warmest and also looks like having the best of the sunshine. In my opinion the Gem 12z is the best run with HP building strongly to the east (charts I posted on previous page) with the hottest conditions but I think a plume is looking a good bet, at least for the south during the second half of next week.

The Gem 12z shows some fine and very warm / hot conditions at times, especially for the south and east with high pressure building to the east. I think there would be a chance of T-Storms in the s/e as well as the best of the sunshine and dry weather.

The Gfs 6z has an Epic low res with high pressure gradually building in with dry, sunny and increasingly warm weather followed by a lovely spanish plume with another heatwave as the jet buckles, much as it did recently. I firmly believe the last 7 weeks of the meteorological summer will produce more plume events and plenty of high pressure.

The Gfs 00z looks much more settled through low res with high pressure having the upper hand and only a brief interruption to the settled picture, the run ends on a high note with an intensifying anticyclone over the top of the UK bringing perfect summer weather..and speaking of perfect weather, for England and Wales today it's perfect summer weather with warm / very warm and sunny conditions and temperatures in the mid to high 20's celsius, warmest in the SE.

The best thing I can say about the Gem 00z this morning is that it becomes warm for most of the run and occasionally very warm / hot in the south/southeast, temps next week generally mid 20's celsius across the southern half of the UK but high 20's c for a time in the SE later next week. It's not a settled run, humidity increases at times but there would be spells of very warm sunshine but also with outbreaks of rain / showers, some heavy and thundery.

The Gem 12z turns into a thing of beauty next week with a stalling Atlantic trough and hot continental air drifting north across the UK, it's very similar synoptically to the recent heatwave with a sharp buckling of the jet. Anyway, anything that doesn't show cool unsettled dross is good, and this is better than good..it's what many of us would love to see verify.

The Ecm 00z shows a marked improvement later next week with the cool unsettled dross shunted away to the north east as high pressure builds in from the southwest and gradually becoming warmer.

No problem As for the next 7-10 days, the north of the UK looks like being coolest and most unsettled whereas central and southern areas become changeable but at least temperatures look more pleasant with more of a tropical maritime influence and generally more in the way of dry weather and sunshine further south. Looking at the end of the Ecm 12z, not a bad finish with a ridge of high pressure building in. Looking further ahead, pleased about the MO extended outlook, sounds like plenty of settled and warm weather is on the way during the second half of july and into early August with the south having potential for hot spells and even the long suffering north west of the UK seeing a change for the better.

The Gfs 12z shows a very nice low res with warm anticyclonic conditions and the next few days look decent, after a cold start tomorrow, good sunny spells and becoming pleasant enough. Friday is the best day, dry, warm and sunny with low to mid 20's celsius but cooler with rain across Scotland. Then we are into a changeable period but pleasantly warm although cooler further north west. Further into FI looks nice and I hope it's something the models can build on. I see no reason why not since the MO update today sounds very reasonable, at least for the south of the UK during the second half of july.

The GEM 00z showed a warm settled outlook next week and the 12z is heading the same way, albeit a little slower but the end result is the same with high pressure becoming more of a dominant feature.

The Gfs 6z shows a good deal of fine and warm weather during the next 7-10 days, especially for the south of the uk with temperatures into the low to mid 20's celsius range, a smidge higher/lower at times with the southeast having the warmest conditions..e.g Saturday into the low 80's F further SE. The further north by northwest you are, the more unsettled and relatively cooler it looks but it's no washout, there are some fine and warmer spells there too. Thurs/fri look increasingly fine and Friday looks warm with temps around 24/25c 76f. The weekend looks less settled with sunshine and thundery showers, warm Saturday, very warm in the southeast but becoming cooler and fresher sunday but then next week turns fine for a while as the Azores high ridges n/e across the south with temps well into the 70's F. The following week shows high pressure further west and lowering heights to the north east but that's deep into low res and subject to changes.