Frosty.

I agree with gibby, it could be a whole lot worse. The outlook for the next few weeks shows at least as much fine and warm weather as cooler and unsettled, the further south you go, the better it looks.

The GEM 00z looks good for most of next week with high pressure bringing warm and settled weather with lots of sunshine.

Well said mushy Looking at the Gfs 00z, thurs/fri are increasingly fine, sunny and warm, still warm in the east/southeast on Saturday and then the Azores high ridges north east across the UK to bring a fine and warm first half of next week.

The GEM 12z compares favourably with the gfs/ecm this evening with high pressure building in after midweek with very warm continental air pushing north into the UK, the theme of the output today has been for a rinse and repeat summery pattern, especially for the south of the uk. It appears to me like the southern half of the uk in particular has lots of fine and warm / very warm and sometimes hot weather to look forward to in the weeks ahead with occasional very humid thundery outbreaks.

I like the Ecm 12z this evening even though it's more progressive than the gfs 12z regarding next weekend but the benefit on this run is a warmer and more settled spell through the first half of the following week which the gfs doesn't have, the Azores high then ridges in again towards the end of the run. All in all, I'm pleased with the 12z output, the upcoming cool northerly plunge doesn't penetrate into the south and west and in any case is shunted away to the north east during wednesday with thurs/fri looking increasingly dry, sunny and much warmer by Friday, still warm in the south and east on Saturday.

The Gfs 12z looks great for 4 days from Thursday with high pressure bringing lots of sunshine and increasingly warm as the HP migrates to the east and then we import continental heat, the weekend in particular looks glorious with very warm / hot weather and anything unsettled restricted to brushing across the far north, hope this is a new trend to lengthen the fine spell...nice end to the run too.

Agreed Pete, if anything like the 6z verifies, I would be very satisfied if I lived in the south because temperatures would regularly be into the 80's F and plumes bring the added interest/excitement of thundery outbreaks as we have seen plenty of in the last week....more to come hopefully.

There is no shortage of fine and very warm weather on the Gfs 6z, especially for the south and east with regular incursions of heat from the near continent and generally fine and warm at other times. The north west of the UK is more unsettled and cooler but occasionally warm and fine. This is a very acceptable run with plenty of warmth and sunshine.

The GEFS 12z mean doesn't look too shabby at all, at least across the southern half of the UK as it indicates the Azores high ridging across the south at times with plenty of fine and warm weather and potential for very warm air from the continent to make occasional inroads into the south, generally less settled and less warm further north/northwest.

The Ecm 12z gives the south a brief plume later next week with temps around the mid 80's F for a time and widely into the mid 20's c across the rest of England and Wales. Looking at next week in general, Monday will see a band of rain pushing in from the west followed by sunshine and showers in a breezy and fresh Atlantic air flow, similar bright and breezy showery mix on tues/wed and feeling cool out of the sun but a ridge of high pressure from the west brings a more settled Thursday and HP to the east of the BI by Friday enables the very warm continental air to drift north, it's brief but Saturday is very warm too in the east/southeast and further ahead, the south does best for largely fine and pleasantly warm conditions with temps into the low 20's c on this run.

Looking further ahead on the Gfs 6z, a noticeable feature is the reloads of hot weather from the continent, apart from that, the south looks best for fine and warm conditions.

The Gfs 6z shows another summery spell during the second half of next week with high pressure migrating eastwards across the UK and enabling a pulse of continental heat to drift north, beyond that, it stays warm and largely settled further south / southeast.

The cooler than normal regime as you put it is only a blip which lasts a few days before the weather starts to warm up again and become more settled due to the increasing influence of the Azores high!

The GEFS 12z mean shows we are on track for another increasingly warm and settled spell from later next week onwards with high pressure building in from the west and then slowly migrating east, once that happens, we again start to import warmer air from the continent...this looks better than the 6z mean to me, there are growing signs that for at least the southern half of the UK, most of july could be largely fine and warm / very warm, the Azores high looks like being our friend.

The Gfs 12z shows a good recovery in conditions from the west during the second half of next week with high pressure building in from the atlantic and slowly migrating eastwards, although temperatures drop back to average /slightly below briefly around midweek, they soon start to rise again towards the mid and then high 20's celsius, especially in the south with a generally quieter more settled spell which then continues into the early part of the following week.

There is good news from the GEFS 6z mean, firstly, unlike the op there is no northerly flow next week dragging temperatures down to well below average, the recovery starts much earlier with pressure rising, becoming more settled, especially in the south and temperatures gradually into the mid to high 20's celsius.

The Gfs 6z shows next week becoming unseasonably cool for the time of year with northerly winds and early next week looks unsettled with rain and showers but as next week goes on, the unsettled weather retreats northwards with the south gradually drying up with more in the way of sunshine. Looking further ahead, high pressure builds in from the west/southwest and our weather settles down and gradually warms up through low res, later in the run it becomes very warm / hot in the south. Next week would be a shock to the system following the very hot and humid weather but in the longer run, the fine and very warm weather returns to most of the uk.

The Ecm 12z ens mean shows nothing cool as such with max temps in the south into the low 20's c at worst and there is a warming and more settled trend as the Azores high ridges in across the south towards the end of next week onwards with temps rising, certainly into the mid 20's c and probably higher than that...Looks good to me.

I agree with mushy completely, brief cooler unsettled blip early next week and then the models are showing another increasingly settled and warmer spell.

Only briefly, it then looks like turning warmer and settled again!

The Ecm 12z shows a change to more settled and warmer weather after the middle of next week with high pressure taking over, very similar to the gem 12z. I think there is growing support for another spell of very summery weather from towards the end of next week and then continuing well into the following week.

There is talk of a more settled and warmer spell towards the end of next week and looking at the latest 12z output, I think the south of the UK should fine up and become warmer again after next midweek, it could even become very warm in the south. As for gem performance, I think it performs pretty well compared to the gfs/ecm/ukmo.

The Gem 12z looks a lot better than it did yesterday for later next week with high pressure and increasing warmth. I think we will see a fine and warmer spell develop, at least across the southern half of the UK.

The Ecm / Gfs 12z both show high pressure taking control from later next week and becoming very warm, the Ecm 12z T+240 chart is superb, the Gefs 12z mean is also showing a more settled and warmer outlook from late next week onwards so after a cooler, fresher more unsettled blip early next week, it looks like becoming more settled and progressively warmer.

The Gfs 12z shows the weather turning very warm and settled again across the southern half of the UK later next week and through the rest of low res, high pressure keeps the south largely fine and warm. In the meantime, tomorrow is a warm day with mid 20's c in the SE and low 20's c elsewhere with sunny spells and scattered heavy and thundery showers but then Friday and Saturday become very warm and more humid again, Friday looks fine but a band of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms will spread up across the UK between Friday evening and Saturday morning. Sunday looks fresher and early next week looks mixed but still pleasant enough, temperature wise in the S/E..so, overall, it's a good run with plenty of warm and fine weather, especially in the south.