Frosty.

The Gfs 00z shows high pressure in control until midweek with fine and mainly dry conditions with sunny spells and light winds and chilly nights where skies clear. Thursday is the day of change, thundery rain pushing north across southern England, spreading up to northern England later and also warm and humid in the southeast in particular, further thundery rain and showers pushing north through Friday and again warm and muggy in the south. By next weekend this run shows cooler and showery conditions spreading south and covering the UK, 17-18c in the south, around 10-12c for northern Britain and colder on northern hills. Next week shows a gradual change to warmer and sunnier weather as the Azores high builds north east, the south of the UK becoming very warm, the north stays unsettled for longer but eventually high pressure becomes nationwide and the charts later in low res look very summery, becoming very warm / hot across England and Wales, a fantastic end to the run.

Agreed, I'm glad Tamara is posting through the summer, superb.

The GEFS 12z mean shows a cool unsettled blip next weekend but the following week shows a marked improvement with the azores high ridging towards the UK, although I don't like the Azores high in winter, I can't get enough of it during the summer and I hope it keeps building and rebuilding our way in the next 3 months.

The Gfs 12z shows largely fine and pleasantly warm weather for most of the week ahead, close to 70F just after midweek, gradually becoming unsettled for next weekend and then during the following week, the azores/atlantic high builds in again, FI is a lot nicer than yesterday's gfs 12z.

The GEFS 6z mean shows there is very strong support from the perturbations for the Azores high to build in across the UK after next weekend's cooler unsettled blip, mid to late June could become largely fine and warm/very warm.

The Gfs 6z shows a largely fine and pleasant spell continuing until later next week with lots of strong sunshine and light winds but with chilly nights where skies clear. The weather then turns very unsettled in time for next weekend but then a big recovery during the following week with the Azores high building in bringing gradually warmer and settled conditions

Agreed, let's enjoy the fine pleasant, fresher weather which will last at least until next thurs/fri instead of glossing over that and moaning about a possibly more unsettled outlook, the outlook is not necessarily going to be unsettled

Most of the week ahead looks very pleasant with spells of very strong sunshine on Gfs 12z, I think it's best to enjoy what we know is coming in the reliable timeframe, which is fine and pleasant for most of us.

The GEFS 6z mean shows an increasingly warm and settled outlook beyond the cooler less settled blip at the end of next week, the Azores high builds in strongly for the mid June period which could set us up for a good second half of the month. In the meantime, the short term looks decent with high pressure bringing strong sunshine during the week ahead but it will turn more unsettled across the northwest corner of the UK after Tuesday. It's a very encouraging mean longer term

I noticed the Gfs 00z showed snow on high ground in Scotland on the 14th, the 6z doesn't but it still shows unseasonably cold Northerly winds with -5 T850 hPA flooding south into northern scotland. What the hell happened to the summery charts..lol

The Ecm 12z is a really good run with the week ahead dominated by high pressure bringing long spells of very strong sunshine and light winds, as for temperatures, pleasantly warm first half of next week with chilly nights but then becoming warmer by day and night, very warm or hot in the south towards the end of next week, a risk of thundery showers later..what else can I say apart from B A N K

I think the GEFS 12z mean is very encouraging both in the short term and further ahead with the next week or so dominated by high pressure bringing pleasantly warm and dry weather with good sunny spells and although there is a cooler less settled blip at the end of next week, the Azores high builds in a few days later with a return to warmer and sunnier conditions.

The ukmo 12z shows the best possible outcome next week with a very pleasant spell for all parts as the UK based anticyclone drifts slowly east and becomes centred slap bang on top of the UK by T+144 hours, we would see temperatures into the low 20's celsius during the second half of next week on this run. I think next week is going to be a good one for most areas, at least for England and Wales, high pressure in control, light winds and a good deal of sunshine and pleasantly warm but with chilly nights where skies clear.

The Gfs 6z in low res looks really nice, it shows a scandi high forming and linking up with the Azores high to bring a nationwide fine and warm spell. In the meantime, this weekend will be fresher with sunny spells, mainly dry apart from blustery showers in the far northwest. Next week looks largely fine and pleasantly warm across England and Wales with high pressure in control bringing good spells of sunshine but the high gradually sinks south and the north turns more unsettled, especially for Scotland and northern ireland after midweek. A widespread cooler unsettled blip at the end of next week but then signs of fine and warm conditions returning.

I mentioned about the Ecm 12z op not being a bad run and now we have the Ecm 12z ensemble mean which looks better with the cool northerly in the late stages of the op held at bay to the north of the BI on the mean. Not a bad way to end today.

Ecm 12z is not bad at all, high pressure bringing good sunny spells and pleasantly warm in the sun. After the dross we had through most of May and the start of this month, next week looks decent.

The Gfs 12z operational is the best run so far today, the reason being that the high gradually migrates to the east of the BI which enables very warm continental air to drift north into the UK. High pressure takes control next week, initially to the west but it's really the second half of next week onwards when temperatures start to climb as the high becomes centred over the top of the UK with increasing amounts of sunshine. I hope this will be the eventual outcome.

I disagree, may was awful, especially in the north and northwest, by comparison, next week looks very pleasant for a large swathe of the uk, even the northwest of the UK looks fine and warm for most of next week, at the very least, there is a strong ridge of high pressure covering the UK for a change, compared to the dross in recent weeks, it's very pleasant.

The Gfs 6z doesn't disappoint next week, high pressure building in and temperatures slowly rising into the high teens to low 20's celsius, feeling very pleasant in the strong June sunshine and light winds but with chilly nights, following weeks of unseasonably cool unsettled and sometimes windy weather, next week is looking very good.

The Gfs 00z shows some very thundery activity in the southeast on Friday, a very warm and humid day down there with heavy downpours but hazy sunshine too, quite warm for most of England and Wales and persistent rain for parts of scotland..then things start to improve.

Yes PM, it's looking good for our first nationwide settled and pleasantly warm spell throughout next week, actually, the coming weekend looks good in the south and at last, the northwest of the UK has something to look forward to next week with dry, sunny and warm conditions for a change.

The Gfs 00z shows a very pleasant anticyclonic spell next week with lots of sunshine and light winds with temperatures very respectable for the time of year but with chilly nights in low to mid single digits celsius, it briefly turns cooler and more unsettled as a trough swings down from Iceland but after a day or two, high pressure builds in again...it's a good run.

I think you speak for most of us on here

Not a bad Ecm 12z this evening, better than the Gfs 12z with stronger anticyclonic influence next week, generally fine and pleasantly warm surface conditions by day with good sunny spells and light winds but with chilly starts.

Hope you're right:)