Frosty.

The Ecm 00z turns into a thing of beauty by day 9 and especially day 10 with high pressure building north and intensifying, great to see the 564 dam extending north too. If the ecm or similar verifies, we will see temperatures heading towards the mid 20's celsius range and perhaps ultimately higher beyond T+240.

The GEFS 12z mean shows strong support for high pressure to bring a warmer and settled spell to most of the UK from late next week onwards.

The Gfs 12z is looking very good from later next week onwards with high pressure building in and settling our weather down, gradually warming up too, the high intensifies over the UK...Fantastic charts.

Tonight's Ecm 12z shows the Azores high building in bringing warmer and increasingly settled weather to the south by the end of next week and I am guessing beyond T+240 would bring an anticyclonic spell to most of the UK.

The GEFS 12z mean shows a big improvement as we head further into May with a warmer and more settled further outlook with increasing high pressure influence, this looks really good to me.

The Gfs 12z in low res turns into a dream run with temperatures soaring into the mid to upper 20's celsius at times, these are beautiful charts to be sure.

Yes but it's the first time the MO have mentioned it, I've been reading the updates every afternoon and before today it's been saying below average temps until late May on their updates but mogreps must also be looking good for a warmer and drier mid may.

At last, the first mention from the met office that towards the middle of the month there is a chance of somewhat drier and warmer conditions developing at times, especially across the southeast. The Gfs in particular has been showing this for a few days now and it's good to see the experts mention it for the first time.

Looking closer at the BH weekend on the Gfs 06z op run. Saturday starts clear and frosty, coldest further north but Saturday looks a fine day with plenty of sunshine although probably becoming hazy during the day as high cloud increases ahead of the rain later, rain, some of it heavy and strengthening winds push north and east to all areas on Sat night / sun morning, Scotland looks cold and wet on Sunday but warmer air spreading north across England and Wales with sunny spells before heavy and thundery showers develop. BH Monday looks largely fine with pleasantly warm sunny spells across the southern half of the UK. Looking further ahead, some unsettled / settled spells and temperatures look better with some very warm days towards mid may.

The Gfs 6z shows a risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms developing tomorrow, especially across England and pleasant sunny spells in between.

The Gfs 00z shows a delay to the weekend rain with Saturday largely fine with sunny spells after a frosty start, rain and stronger winds then sweep up across the UK sat night / sun morning, some of it heavy but then becoming brighter and showery with a risk of thunder, turning pleasantly warm in the south during Sunday, BH Monday looks unsettled but with sunny spells and pleasantly warm, around 16/18c. Next week looks unsettled but at least temperatures become higher, at least across southern UK, no polar chill next week, more of a tropical maritime influence. High pressure builds in just before mid may and works hard to bring a more settled spell to many areas.

Taking a closer look at the BH weekend on the Gfs 12z, Saturday starts fine and cold with a widespread frost away from the south but after a sunny start, clouds thicken and SEly winds strengthen and persistent rain spreads north and east, however, it stays fine for a while further east and north, winds increase to Gale force in the northwest of the UK. The rain clears north on Saturday night with Sunday looking brighter with sunny spells but heavy and thundery showers developing, becoming pleasantly warm in the south and east. BH Monday looks a drier day for the south and east with fewer showers and longer sunny spells with temps around 60F, most of the unsettled weather across the northwest. Another few unsettled days with cooler Atlantic air but later next week becomes drier, brighter and warmer in the south, staying cooler and unsettled in the north, then signs of high pressure becoming more dominant through mid may.

The Gfs 12z shows very warm weather in the south later next week and mid may looks more settled and generally warmer with high pressure building in...Looking good.

The GEFS 6z mean suggests there is good support for warmer weather, at least for the south in the extended outlook period (T+240 range) I still think we will see a change from the current chilly below average temperatures to pleasantly warm conditions through the BH weekend despite being unsettled, there should be sunny spells too. A band of rain is expected to push north with warmer air following in behind with sunshine and heavy showers from the south, chance of temps into the high teens celsius sun / mon.

The Gfs 6z ends on a high note, it would be nice to think we could look forward to an increasingly warm and settled spell from mid may wouldn't it? In the meantime, the BH weekend indicates a warmer feel than currently, low to mid 60's F with sunny spells / showers, the warmer air pushing up from the south behind a band of heavy rain sweeping north across the UK on Saturday night / sunday followed by sunshine and thundery showers. Through next week it could become more settled for a short time but generally it still looks unsettled with sunshine and showers and a risk of heavy / thundery rain but at least temperatures recover from the end of this week onwards and rather warm at times through the outlook.

Both the Ecm & Gfs 12z show more of a tropical maritime influence in just over a weeks time so daytime temperatures would be more in the 16-19c range, much more pleasant. Even though I'm a coldie I don't want an unseasonably cold May.

Really hope the Gfs is on to something here, much better charts in low res from the 12z with summery temps returning as high pressure builds from the s/sw.

There is a chance some of us will have respectable temperatures (pleasantly warm) during the BH weekend according to the Gfs 12z with sunny spells but there is also a continuing risk of showers.

The GEFS 00z mean shows the PFJ heading north through the extended outlook with milder T850 hPa replacing the chilly polar air so at least temperatures would return to normal with some rather warm days in any prolonged sunshine, however, the outlook continues generally unsettled with sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery being the main theme but there will also be fine spells with more in the way of sunshine.

The Gfs 00z looks generally unsettled with sunshine and showers being the main weather type for the next few weeks but at least temperatures recover from the BH weekend onwards, closer to where they should be at this time of year and favoured spots which have the most sunshine and fewest showers could reach the high teens celsius at times next week according to this run.

The Gfs 6z shows a steady improvement through early / mid may with temperatures becoming rather warm again, into the high teens celsius with some spots nudging into the low 70's F. The BH weekend shows higher temps than currently, more like where they should be at the start of May, into the low 60's F and there is likely to be some dry and sunny weather next weekend but with a few showers around too, BH Monday shows rain pushing north and east but the far east and north escape fine for longest but after the holiday it becomes warmer, still a risk of heavy showers for a while but with a gradual rise in pressure it eventually becomes more settled and the end of the run looks great.

The Ecm 00z shows warmer air than currently by the BH weekend so temperatures could return to the mid to high teens celsius across at least the south of the UK, it won't be settled, there are likely to be some sharp showers dotted around but in the sunny spells it would be pleasantly warm once again, not the dull very cool damp conditions London has today for example.

Something to look forward to hopefully, the Gfs 12z shows warm weather returning from the south later in low res with temperatures into the 70's F. One of the things I like looking out for from late spring and throughout the summer is the 564 dam line and I'm hoping we will see plenty of it close to the UK in the next 4-5 months.

The Gfs 00z shows almost a repeat of the unseasonably cool weather next week during week 2 as well...ie. very unsettled and rather cold with sunshine and showers, wintry on hills and not just on hills and occasional bouts of persistent rain and strong winds, however, it's not cool or cold all the time with the south having low teens celsius a few times in the week ahead and next weekend becomes warmer with temps into the 60's F so it would feel pleasant, especially in the strong sunshine.

This looks great, becoming very warm through early may on the Gfs 6z, I'm looking forward to hot summer plumes and Azores high's.