Frosty.

Just take a look at these minimum temps from the Gfs 12z run, more like you would expect in April than early June, I never expected such a bad run when we have such a warm and summery met office outlook.

Friday not looking as warm as recent output for the south east on the Gfs 12z, maybe this is due to a lot of cloud and thundery showers in the southeast on Fri afternoon. Next weeks high shunted further west, so far west we have inland showers breaking out and temps next week, as Michael fish would say, nothing to write home about. I'm a bit disappointed how things are working out, heatwave has vanished and next week ho hum on this run.

The Gefs 6z mean indicates strong support for a pleasantly warm anticyclonic spell next week. The latest MO update also settled and warm next week.

The Gfs 6z looks warm and anticyclonic next week with temperatures into the low 20's celsius, if it happens, it will be the best weeks weather since april.

The Ecm 00z shows a change to anticyclonic conditions next week and gradually becoming warmer, very warm later next week.

The Gfs 00z shows a generally warm settled extended outlook with high pressure domination, the high initially is centred just to the west but it slowly migrates to the east of the UK and enables very warm continental air to push north across the UK. In the meantime, wed/thurs look calmer, drier, sunnier and warmer than recently and Friday looks very warm and humid in southern areas, especially the southeastern corner but there is a risk of thundery rain on Friday, some big storms perhaps for the southeast. The weekend should be fine and pleasantly warm in the south and east due to a ridge of high pressure and then next week onwards could really be the start of something special for early summer 2015

Agreed, the meteorological summer is only 1 day old, this week is an improving picture and all the models I have seen indicate a warm anticyclonic spell next week, best of all, the met office outlook is for a lot of warm and fine weather this month with a risk of a few thundery outbreaks mid June.

The Ecm 12z looks good next week with high pressure building in from the west and becoming warm. In the meantime, the current cool, windy unsettled weather will be replaced by warmer and drier conditions for a few days, temperatures rising with increasing amounts of sunshine on wed/thurs with Friday being the warmest day for the south at around 27c 81f and a risk of thundery rain pushing north. The weekend looks cooler and fresher but pleasantly warm and largely fine in the south and east but the northwest of the UK more unsettled, nice next week.

I don't understand the doom and gloom, next week looks warm and anticyclonic, not only the Gfs showing good weather next week, more crucially, the met office are too..cheer up

The Gfs 12z for Friday is a very warm sultry day across the south of the UK with a risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms due to a brief pulse of continental heat, that's swept away east next weekend but the south/se should be pleasant with sunny spells whilst the north and northwest looks more unsettled but then next week is shaping up to become anticyclonic and warm with a good deal of sunshine.

The Gfs 6z looks very warm and humid from the Midlands southwards on Friday with mid to high 70's / low 80's F and sunny spells but there is a risk of heavy thundery showers, especially in the west, the weekend looks best in the south, cooler than Friday but pleasantly warm and fine for the south and east thanks to a ridge of high pressure, more unsettled further northwest. High pressure becomes dominant next week and warming up into the low 70's F...much better than the recent/current dross

I like the Gem 00z, it's not settled but it does deliver occasional pulses of continental heat and humidity from Friday and into next week with temperatures sometimes into the 80's F with thundery outbreaks and sunny periods.

The Gfs 00z shows the south of the UK in particular becoming fine by midweek with pleasantly warm sunny spells, warmer by Thursday with 21 celsius in the southeast. Friday becomes very warm and humid in the south as we briefly import continental air but heavy, thundery rain pushes north up the western side of the uk, the weekend is cooler and fresher, mainly dry and bright in the south & east, more unsettled to the northwest but then next week becomes anticyclonic and pleasantly warm again.

Next weekend looks a scorcher, loving these Ecm 12z charts, I think low 30's celsius next weekend across southern uk and a risk of T-Storms breaking out, then the Azores high set to build in again. After weeks of cool unsettled dross, I'm really excited by the potential later next week onwards

Yes, if there are no brief incursions of fresher atlantic air, it will be hot, humid and hazy across the south of the UK. What a great outlook though. May has been disappointingly cool and unsettled, especially in the north / northwest of the UK but we are now on the cusp of a prolonged spell of increasingly summery weather.

The GEFS 6z mean is perfect, high pressure building in and becoming warm / very warm. The MO outlook is superb with high temperatures and lots of sunshine and a growing chance of thundery weather at times in the south where it becomes very warm / hot and humid. Once the pattern change arrives, it looks set to become entrenched and is unlikely to be displaced until sometime in July, who knows, it may last longer. I hope it does

Cheers BA

Yes mushy, Early June 1975 is a very good comparison, the current charts are even better. Exciting times to come during June, I'm sure of it.

If the Ecm 12z is right, with +15 plus T850 hPA surging northwards (564 dam thicknesses) we would see max temperatures of 30-32c if the weather is sunny. The Ecm and Gfs 12z show heatwave conditions this evening..really exciting charts today, hope the models keep this up.

Awesome Ecm 12z this evening, great to see continuity from the 00z. Really exciting potential for the majority of us on here. 30c 86f/32c 90f from this run with reload potential..lovely stuff

For anyone who hasn't seen the Gfs 12z, there is some incredible eye candy for you. This reminds me a lot of the stonking Ecm 00z this morning, most interestingly, it's the sort of charts we will see verifying if the met office extended outlook is correct. Enjoy.

It looks to me as though this is going to be a fantastic June, day after day the gefs mean is showing charts like these and reading the met office updates there is no sign of cool unsettled Atlantic driven weather returning, once the warmer anticyclonic pattern becomes established later next week. I think we are going to stay within a warm/very warm/hot and humid pattern for weeks and weeks. I'm looking forward to a sustained spell of summery weather.

The Gfs 6z is not a poor run, there is plenty of warm and very warm sunny weather but also some thundery rain at times with higher humidity..as mushy said..B A N K

Ecm 00z is Fabulous, if ever there was a run I would love to verify, it's this one, it turns warm, then very warm, then hot and humid with continental conditions becoming widespread across the UK with spells of hot sunshine but also a risk of thunderstorms breaking out and pushing up from France..stunning charts.

The Gfs 00z shows summery weather from next Wednesday across the south of the UK and then more widely a day or two later, becoming warm / very warm with long sunny spells as high pressure takes control. Looking further ahead, this run shows pulses of thundery rain pushing north across the UK with increasing humidity but still with a lot of fine and warm weather too.