Frosty.

Superb Ecm 12z T+120 chart for next Tuesday, the best yet in my opinion..high 20's celsius if this verifies, ecm just keeps raising the bar for Tuesday, hopefully will be the warmest day of the year so far.

The Gfs 6z shows much warmer weather on the way for the southern half of the uk, 20c in the south by Sunday, 21-23c next Monday and 24-26c on Tuesday, I'm hoping somewhere in the south/east will reach 26c because that would be the highest so far this spring. The North/Northwest of the UK are unlikely to see much improvement from current conditions and from the middle of next week the very warm settled weather is swept away eastwards as low pressure and cooler Atlantic air arrives, the unsettled conditions don't last long with the Azores high building in and bringing more settled weather to the south for a time.

The Ecm 00z shows a very warm spell for the south of the UK during the first half of next week with plenty of sunshine and temperatures well into the 20's celsius, Tuesday could be the warmest day of the spring so far, beating the current highest 25c set in April. The northwest of the UK stays more unsettled and cooler and all areas turn unsettled from midweek and gradually cooler from the west but the run ends on a positive note with high pressure set to build in from the southwest beyond T+240 hours.

The Gfs 00z is showing 3 fine days for most of England & Wales (sun/mon/tues) with high pressure becoming centred to the southeast across the near continent, this enables a surge of warmth from southern europe to pump north across the southern half of the UK early next week with 17-19c on Sunday, 21-23c on monday and 24-26c on tuesday. By midweek the temperatures are back down to normal and the weather becomes very unsettled and much cooler through the second half of next week.

The Ecm 12z @ T+144 is a BEAUTY...no sign of a downgrade and the ecm continues to show warmer conditions than the gfs next Tuesday, if this verifies it will be the warmest day of the spring so far. Sun/Mon/Tues look dry with lots of sunshine for most of England and wales. I hope we see many more charts like these during the next 4 months.

The Gfs 12z shows increasingly fine and warmer weather from Sunday to Tuesday for most of England and Wales with Sunday becoming pleasantly warm and Monday turns warmer with air sourced from southern europe, into the low 70's F. Tuesday is the warmest day with 23/24 celsius in parts of the east/se. The north and northwest of the uk are cooler and more unsettled throughout and we all turn unsettled and cooler during the second half of next week. Looking further ahead, a spell of high pressure gradually develops and it becomes pleasantly warm again.

The Gfs 6z holds on to the warmth next Tuesday with mid 20's celsius for parts of the southeast / east anglia and although it then turns cooler and unsettled through the second half of next week as a trough swings down from the northwest, it's not long before high pressure returns with warm weather making a comeback through low res. The good news is most of the uk will have a warm up, especially England and Wales. Sunday looks fine and pleasantly warm and then mon/tues become even warmer, very warm in the south & east, this is a better run than the 00z.

I hope the Ecm 00z is correct as it extends the warmth from the south through midweek unlike the Gfs which shunts the warmth east of the uk by tuesday, the ecm shows a very warm / locally hot spell through the first half of next week, especially for southern/southeast England with temps into the 70's F widely across England and Wales and even higher in the south, closer to 80 F for a time.

For the first time this spring I'm using the word HOT to describe next Tuesday on this evenings Ecm 12z op run. Temperatures could reach the high 20's celsius if this chart comes off, it shows 564 dam into the south +15 T850 hPa..Epic charts. The Ecm looks much better from Sunday until the middle of next week, the run ends cool, windy and unsettled but next Tuesday could be a cracker, hot and sunny in the south and very warm further north.

The Gfs 6z op run shows fine and increasingly warm weather early next week, widely high teens c on Monday and then low 20's celsius and closer to 24/25c across the east/se next Tuesday, from midweek it gradually becomes cooler and more unsettled from the northwest but it doesn't stay unsettled for long. I'm just happy to see a much warmer spell firming up for the first half of next week.

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows warm / very warm air from southern Europe spreading up across the UK early next week with widespread low 20's celsius, at least for the southern half of the uk and closer to 24/25c for the s/se. With high pressure to the south, the best of the weather next week would be across more southern parts with warm sunny spells, more unsettled and less warm further northwest.

The Gfs 00z shows very warm weather for the south and east early next week with mid 20's celsius for favoured spots and generally the best of the weather further ahead is across the south and east with occasional incursions of high pressure from between southwest & southeast, the northwest of the UK looks relatively cooler and more unsettled with persistent lower heights to the northwest but with a few fine and warmer interludes. I'm happy to say a surge of warmth from southern Europe is looking more and more likely early next week.

The Ecm 12z shows a nw/se split next week.

Those charts are 10 days away, there is certainly a good chance the south and east, especially the SE will have some warm / very warm and summery weather next week, the ecm has been showing warmth in that timeframe for the last few days.

This Evenings Ecm 12z shows an unsettled start to next weekend but there is quite an improvement by Sunday and then through most of next week, becoming very warm and sunny at times in the south and east but with at least a small risk of thundery showers from time to time, low to mid 20's celsius, it looks to me like a typical nw/se split next week with the northwest of the UK more unsettled and cooler but this ecm run is really not bad at all the further SE you are with +10 T850 hPa making occasional inroads from the south.

I agree, I'm really starting to believe we will have increasing amounts of warmer and more settled weather, especially through the second half of May. In the meantime, next week looks better for the south and east as I reckon we will have a typical nw/se split next week and longer term, a nationwide settled spell could be on the way.

Medium to longer term, things are looking up with more in the way of settled and warm weather, especially for the south & east / SE. The GEFS 6z mean shows a general improvement next week and further ahead with high pressure in the ascendancy. And in addition, the models show an improving picture by the coming weekend with lighter winds / calmer and mainly dry conditions with warm sunny spells. I also like the met office extended outlook which mentions above average temperatures and a trend towards settled

The Ecm 00z shows a warm up from the south by the end of this week but more especially through next week with temperatures eventually into the low to mid 20's celsius across the south and east, especially the southeast with +15 T850 hPa (564 dam thicknesses) very close to the SE at T+240 hours. I'm hoping we will see a marked warm up next week

The Ecm 00z is going for a warm up from the south by next weekend, it becomes very warm in the south with low to mid 20's celsius, another taste of summer could be on the way.

The Ecm 12z shows very warm weather for the south and east later in the run, After reading comments like ..oh dear, summer is on hold I was expecting to see cold unsettled charts, instead I see 564 dam thicknesses into the south and very summery temperatures.

The outlook doesn't sound much different from yesterday, from next weekend the south turns settled and warmer, then extending north, it's only the northwest of the UK which could be the exception.

I like the end of the Ecm 00z with very warm air from the south soon after, met office still going for a warmer and more settled further outlook.

Really impressive GEFS 12z mean this evening from the end of next week until potentially well beyond mid may, it becomes increasingly anticyclonic and warmer.

The Gfs 12z is the best gfs run so far today with the Azores high building in later next week and bringing most of the UK a prolonged warm and summery spell with lots of sunshine with temperatures into the 70's F. These charts are excellent and remind me of yesterday's 12z.

The Gfs 6z through low res is generally much better than we have had for the last week or so, there is a lot of fine and pleasantly warm weather with high pressure in control for most of the time. Very warm air across the near continent flirts with the south later in FI. The latest met office outlook (6-15 day) is very good news with warmer and more settled weather spreading from the southwest although there is a ? how far northeast the fine and warm weather gets but for southern UK things are looking up later next week onwards with the Azores high building NE into the uk