Frosty.

The Gfs 6z shows a spell of pleasant weather for most of the week ahead with long sunny periods and light winds under high pressure but then a change to generally unsettled conditions arrives and a brief cold blast into the far north with wintry showers / snow on hills followed by a very wet and windy spell with severe gales in places, however, later in low res the weather slowly improves with some fine and pleasantly warm spells.

Before the transition to unsettled weather, the Gfs 0z shows increasingly pleasant conditions in the days ahead with more in the way of sunshine and lighter winds with temperatures rising comfortably into the 60's F, Friday is the day of change as rain spreads from the southwest.

Ecm for the third consecutive run is showing a colder shot for the last week of April with a chance of wintry showers on hills and night frosts.

Both Ecm runs today show a colder shot beyond T+168 and the Gfs 12z is similar. We know it's going to become more unsettled from the end of next week, the met office have mentioned that today, the question now is will we have a polar/arctic maritime outbreak during the following week?

The Gfs 12z is a colder run through week 2 compared to 6z with mainly NWly winds (Pm airmass) and some wintry ppn, at least for northern hills and a higher risk of night frosts. In the meantime, although tomorrow will be much cooler and cloudier in the east with scattered showers, the trend next week is for warmer and sunnier conditions, especially the 2nd half of next week which shows a spell of very pleasant weather before a gradual change to unsettled conditions, lol it's so quiet in here I'm probably just talking to myself...

The GEFS 06z mean shows a trend to more generally unsettled weather from the end of next week onwards but at no stage indicates anything particularly cold. The second half of next week will bring above average temperatures and good sunny spells but from Friday it turns more unsettled, once the unsettled spell kicks in, temps are likely to slip back to nearer average but it would still be pleasantly warm in the dry and fine intervals between bouts of wet and windy weather, the south is likely to have the best of the fine weather and temperatures within the generally unsettled pattern which is normal.

The Gfs 6z shows a good week coming up with high pressure in control, temperatures slowly recover, becoming pleasantly warm, especially during the second half of next week, the weather turns more unsettled by Friday but temperatures stay respectable in the south of the UK, rather cooler further north. The further outlook shows changeable weather with some dry, warm and sunny weather but with showers and longer spells of rain too, especially in the north, coolest in the north with the south having temps around average but sometimes warmer.

I think support is growing for a colder/unsettled shot from the nw/n beyond T+168 hours, as shown on the Ecm 00z. Looking at the week ahead, it will be largely settled with the best of the sunshine and highest temperatures in the west but we should all see sunshine at times and feeling pleasantly warm in the sun but where skies clear at night, a touch of frost is likely.

It's me who should apologise John, sorry I over reacted, it's guys like you that I'm trying to learn from and make my input better, no hard feelings I hope.

I never said it was a done deal, I just commented that the Ecm 12z T+240 chart last night showed sub -5 T850 hPa 528/522 dam thicknesses sweeping into the northwest of the UK bringing wintry showers and if that run had continued, it would have brought in even colder air from the northwest...I'm really disappointed how you have been so critical of what I thought was a fair and balanced post..cheers

The Ecm 12z shows a warm up next week with plenty of sunny weather with high pressure dominant, I would think low to mid 60's F by the middle of next week but then towards the end of next week it gradually becomes unsettled from the west/northwest and cold by T+240 with showers turning wintry across the northwest, 522/528 dam thicknesses with snow on hills and night frosts, post day 10 would turn even colder.

The GEFS 6z mean indicates a warmer, sunnier spell next week with high pressure centred on top of the UK but then, as with the 6z op, retrogression occurs and arctic air pushes south into the far north of the UK, thereafter, the UK becomes cooler and generally unsettled.

Yes PM, the Gfs has been showing this type of arctic incursion shown on the 6z at times recently, as you say, the devil will be in the detail.

The Gfs 6z shows high pressure retrogression later next week and an Arctic blast bringing snow to the far north and then an unsettled and chilly further outlook. However, for the next week or so the 6z shows settled conditions as high pressure takes over from tomorrow, temps much lower than they have been in the south by tomorrow but not much different for northern areas. We should all see our fair share of sunshine but it may be rather cloudy in eastern counties bordering the north sea as long as we have a NEly breeze which becomes strong for a time in the far south. Temperatures start to rise above average once we lose the NEly airflow. Most of next week looks fine and pleasantly warm before that much colder weather I mentioned at the beginning arrives in the far north towards the end of next week.

When you say we will have a nagging north easterly until next Tuesday I assume you mean your location because the northern half of the UK will have light winds being closer to the core of the intensifying anticyclone so it will actually feel pleasantly warm in central and northern areas in the sunshine and light winds.

The GEFS 12z mean shows very pleasant benign conditions with high pressure for most of next week, thereafter, pressure falls, and our weather becomes cooler and generally unsettled through late April.

The GFS 12z shows temperatures returning to normal by friday with low teens celsius but then they lift a little through the weekend, edging closer to 60F in favoured spots, next week shows temps returning to above average. Next week looks very pleasant with long sunny spells but then by week 2 it becomes cooler and unsettled from the NW

18-20c is for near the south coast tomorrow. Very warm for mid April.

Winds look light further north so central and northern areas should feel pleasantly warm in the long sunny spells.

Widespread cool is over doing it, temperatures returning to normal is hardly widespread cool is it? The outlook is very pleasant with high pressure, light winds and lots of sunshine, then temps returning to above average.

The GEFS 6z mean shows a change to cooler and unsettled weather by the end of next week onwards but there will be plenty of fine, anticyclonic and pleasantly warm weather with good sunny spells to enjoy for the next 7/8 days or so, indeed, next week should become rather warm with temperatures into the mid 60's F.

Looking good into next week on the Gfs 6z with high pressure covering the UK and temperatures rising into the 60's F nationwide and plenty of sunshine for all, much of next week looks fine and warm with temperatures nudging higher, becoming very warm later next week as a trough digs south to the west of the UK enabling warmer air from the azores to bathe the uk.

There is a nationwide settled spell on the way from Friday which continues for much of next week as a new area of high pressure builds in and intensifies over the UK, the Gfs 00z for example shows HP still in charge by next Thursday. I expect it will become rather warm again once the high is firmly established.

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a new anticyclone building in over the top of the BI and intensifying during the weekend and lasting until later next week with a nationwide settled spell bringing lots of sunshine and temperatures recovering again after a cooler interlude, I would think temps will rise into the low to mid 60's F by early next week but with chilly nights where skies are clear. As for tomorrow, the SE could squeeze out a 25c 77f and those very high temps could also trigger a few thunderstorms tomorrow evening across parts of the south / southeast.

The Gfs 6z shows a risk of isolated thunderstorms tomorrow evening across parts of southern britain as the curtain comes down on the very warm spell in the south but then we see a new anticyclone building in over the UK from Friday and intensifying during the weekend into early next week with lots of strong sunshine and light winds with temperatures recovering again after a cooler blip, rising into the 60's F so a very pleasant spell nationwide but with chilly nights under clear skies, then later next week as our high drifts away NW (classic retrogression) we have an Arctic maritime incursion with snow in the north and sharper night frosts for a time.