Frosty.

This evenings Ecm 12z shows increasingly cold and unsettled weather from Sunday until later next week with cold Northerly winds as shown below, this run and the ukmo 12z are similar and would extend the chilly showery spell until at least next thursday, 522 dam thicknesses at the end of April would be impressive, the ecm shows the unseasonably cold spell lasting all next week, frost risk increases too..so it's the euros v gfs.

Well from sunday and throughout the first half of next week looks cold and showery, well, much colder than now anyway and the ukmo 12z is cold until at least midweek, we might not have a straight northerly but we do have a cold northwesterly of arctic origin, and there would be wintry showers and below average temps so it doesn't look much of a turnaround to me, not until later next week at the earliest.

The ukmo 12z looks a lot colder and much more unsettled than it did on the previous few runs at T+144 hours with widespread showers and hill snow if that verifies, potential big shock on the way with the current warm and sunny (20c max) replaced by much colder and unsettled with Arctic Nly winds (6-9c max), strongest winds in the far north with frequent showers, many of them heavy with hail and thunder and becoming cold enough for settling snow on northern hills and sleet and wet snow in the heaviest showers further south as temperatures drop like a brick during showers before recovering in the sunny spells between the showers.

The change to colder and unsettled weather is getting closer although saturday will still be on the pleasantly warm side across the south of the UK but with a risk of thundery showers but then it turns progressively colder from the NW, down to low teens celsius in the south by Sunday and lower than that early next week. The Gfs 0z shows a very unsettled spell on the way with stronger winds than of late, at least for a time which will accentuate the cold, especially in the north of the uk and by the start of next week it will be cold enough for snow on northern hills. Later in high res and especially through low res (beyond T+192 hours) shows a change back to warmer and settled spells for the south and east but with the north / northwest staying generally unsettled but becoming milder. I ignored the 6z op because the latest met office outlook (6-15 day) for early may is more in tune with the gfs 0z, i e... trending drier and brighter for the south & east

The GEFS 12z mean supports a cold and unsettled first half of next week with wintry showers and night frosts but after midweek indicates drier and brighter conditions spreading from the southwest as the Azores high ridges northeast into the south of the uk cutting off the cold air supply with temperatures then starting to climb back towards average, conditions return to normal further on.

No HC but I'm sure there are some on here who are concerned about frosty nights next week.Meanwhile, the differences between the ukmo 0z/12z at T+120 are ridiculous, the 0z showed a cold unsettled week with arctic winds, the 12z doesn't, this is really making it difficult to call..

Looking at minimum temperatures on the Gfs 6z next week, there are some very cold nights / early mornings with widespread frosts, some sharp frosts for gardeners and growers to be concerned about.

Yes, this is an amazing chart for 1st May..sensational.

These are very interesting charts for Sunday on the 6z, lots of snow in the north and amazing temperature contrast from north to south.

Sub zero nights all next week is not ordinary at the end of April and early may, neither is frequent wintry showers in an Arctic airflow..did you read gibbys summary? Next week is as wintry as you can get so late in the season IMO, some surprise snow next week is on the cards with potential for snow to accumulate on hills, especially in the north..late season joy for Scottish ski resorts too!

Wintry blast on the way, look at these early morning minimum temps on the Gfs 0z.. Brrrrrrrrr

0z models showing a wintry blast, I expect we could see some quite spectacular skies as showers build in an Arctic flow...Bring it on!!

In my opinion, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks about as wintry as you can get in late April / early may. A strong Arctic airflow bringing frequent wintry showers with hail and thunder and icy frosty nights. I think it's still game on for an unseasonably cold blast next week with snow on hills and to lower levels in the heaviest showers but with sunny spells too.

The Ecm 12z shows an unseasonably cold spell next week with arctic maritime air flooding south across all areas with sunny spells and a wintry mix of showers, some heavy with hail and thunder and some sharp night frosts, snow would be a possibility in the heaviest showers since temperatures would drop like a brick during showers but especially on northern hills, pressure rises from the west towards T+240 with increasingly fine conditions.

The GEFS 12z mean shows support for watering down the cold blast next week, similar to the op with weak height rises from the s/sw cutting off the arctic incursion before it even establishes in the south. the arctic blast could turn into a non event.

Well just as I was saying a major pattern change is on the way, along comes the Gfs 12z which shows high pressure building from the south next week cutting off the arctic blast prematurely, indeed, this run shows a pleasantly warm Saturday for most of southern / eastern England with the SE corner warm on Sunday too, further north the arctic air does flood south with wintry showers but it doesn't develop like it did on the 6z, the south starts to warm up again and become fine, this wasn't in the script..lol

We are racing towards a major pattern change, most of April has been warm and anticyclonic across the south of the UK, not so further north but we will all soon be into a cyclonic pattern with low pressure domination. The Gfs 6z shows the UK being plunged into an unseasonably cold spell with arctic maritime air digging south bringing frequent showers of rain, hail, sleet and snow with thunder and lightening too, also, bouts of strong winds and persistent rain with snow on hills and damaging night frosts, however, there will be pleasant sunny spells but when the showers arrive, temps would drop like a brick. For fans of action packed weather, your cup will runneth over from the end of this week until possibly well into early may.

I don't think snow would be confined to the tops of the Scottish mountains, the Gfs 0z for example shows a risk of wet snow even across southern Britain at times. It looks like a very unsettled and unseasonably cold outlook with polar maritime and arctic winds heading our way.

The Gfs 12z turns into an unseasonably cold run for the time of year and also much more unsettled than we have got used to, a pattern change is on the way. Friday is the transition day with a band of rain spreading north and east. Saturday shows a risk of heavy, thundery showers but temperatures still look respectable in the south of the UK, cooler further north, colder by Sunday but the south of the uk looks drier and brighter but then through next week it looks very unsettled and chilly everywhere with a polar/arctic maritime airflow bringing sunshine and frequent showers, some wintry with hail and thunder, and bouts of heavy rain and strong winds with snow on northern hills, daytime maxima on some days struggling to reach double digits celsius in the south and lower than that further north. There would also be a high risk of damaging frosts for gardeners and growers if something like this run verified, snow in early may on this run.

Hi Andy, thank you. Currently I'm thinking more a slacker LOW than a deep one for the weekend with early sunshine on saturday giving way to showers after the persistent rain clears through the UK by Friday night but I also think it could be breezy and the showers next weekend could merge into longer spells of rain, some heavy with hail and thunder but there are likely to be a few areas which miss most of the showery rain and have pleasant sunny spells, however, it is likely to become significantly cooler by Saturday, more so further northwest, it could even become cold enough for wintry ppn on northern hills, especially scotland and night frosts risk becomes higher.

The Gfs 6z shows rain spreading northeastwards across the UK during friday and the weekend looks cool and unsettled, cold enough for wintry showers on hills in scotland, for many of us it's a sunshine and showers weekend, some heavy with a risk of thunder. The chilly unsettled spell continues for the first half of next week but the showers gradually die out with more in the way of sunshine but with cold frosty nights but the second half of next week looks better with higher pressure and good spells of sunshine with daytime temps recovering to pleasantly warm levels, however, the 6z then shows another low swinging down from the northwest with a cold blast in its wake bringing a return of chilly, showery weather, the showers wintry on hills and further night frosts.

I wish it would happen too Chris, and looking at the GEFS 12z mean, it certainly looks like becoming colder and very unsettled with a polar maritime and even the chance of an Arctic maritime flow, so it looks like very interesting model watching with a pattern change on the way.

Midweek (29th April) is even colder with snow in the south, even the southeast, quite amazing. Beyond that, although temperatures start to recover, it stays very unsettled into early may. This is an exceptional gfs run, anything like this occurring will give us plenty to talk about and hopefully increase the numbers in the forum.

The Gfs 12z shows a return to winter for Scotland next weekend with a risk of snow showers, the cold blast then sweeps south to the rest of the UK on the 27/28th with a risk of wintry showers even in the south, what a huge shock to the system this would be for southern England with the recent 25c temps, this would be quite something and certainly not boring..lol

The GEFS 6z mean is strongly supporting a colder and very unsettled outlook.