Frosty.

Cheers guys, what a day!..and the good news is we have plenty of warm / v warm weather showing on the 6z for the rest of this week, the weekend and early next week, at least for the south of the UK.

The Gfs 6z shows a lot of warm / very warm weather across at least the south of the UK, the rest of this week including the weekend and early next week show temps into the 80's F at times with some very humid days / nights and an ongoing chance of thundery weather, we are not going to see this very summery pattern brushed aside although today is the peak of the heat. There is a less warm phase through the middle of next week but temps are still comfortably into the low 20's celsius and next week could become more unsettled for a time, especially in the north but the 6z shows high pressure then building across the south.

It was 33c 91f at Heathrow at 10.30 / 11.00am and the beeb forecast has adjusted the max temp to 36c today whether it's at Heathrow or another part of south east England. Edit..northolt in nw London has already had 34.5c 94f today, I think 36c will be reached somewhere in the SE, maybe a smidge higher!

The Gfs 6z has undercooked today's max in the southeast, since it's already heading for 34/35c at Heathrow, the highest temp today has now been adjusted upwards to 36c 97f in parts of SE England which puts us very close to a record high temperature..in Paris they expect 40c today which is very dangerous heat, hope they have better rail tracks than we have. Lol

In a few months it will be the wrong kind of leaves on the line. Looking further ahead into next week, the north of the UK certainly looks much cooler and more unsettled but it could easily stay on the warm side further south with pulses of very warm tropical maritime / continental air.

The way things are going, maybe somewhere in the southeast will reach 36c 97f, Heathrow could be the mega hot spot today! Looking at the rest of this week, the models still show warm / very warm and occasionally humid conditions with sunny spells but with thundery showers around, London should reach 27c 81f tomorrow and low 20's c for most other areas. Just turned 33c 91f at Heathrow..wow

Glad you are enjoying it:) Temps already 30.5c 87f in parts of the south and British rail are having problems, apparently it's the wrong kind of heat.

Next week does look cooler and more unsettled according to the gfs/ecm 00z although the ecm does warm up for a time later next week into the mid 20's c across the south but for me its all about today, what a great start to july with temps widely into the high 20's to low 30's celsius and close to record high levels in the southeast with 35c 95f expected, enjoy today.

There is a lot to like about this evening's Ecm 12z, first of all tomorrow, what a scorcher of a start to july, I think somewhere in the southeast will reach 35c 95f tomorrow. Tomorrow looks even more humid and thunderstorms will break out. Looking at the rest of this week, a chance of a few heavy / thundery showers on Thursday but a generally quieter, fresher day with sunny spells and temperatures down to the mid 20's c in the SE, low 20's c further north and west. Friday sees the heat and humidity rising again across the south and spreading north up the eastern side of the uk for a time on Saturday, it looks fine on Friday but with a band of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms later spreading from south to north before clearing east on Saturday with drier, brighter & fresher weather spreading from the west by sunday. For a time early next week it looks less settled, especially in the north but the south looks largely fine under a ridge of HP, the ecm then shows high pressure building across the southern half of the UK for days 8/9/10 and becoming generally warm, very warm in the south.

According to BBC weather, the southeast will reach 34c 93f tomorrow which is a couple of degrees higher than the gfs 12z shows. Today has been beautiful with almost cloudless skies and hot sunshine but tomorrow will be even more humid and there is likely to be a scattering of intense thunderstorms breaking out and then spreading N/E.

I could get used to this, the Gfs 12z shows tomorrow is the peak of the current hot and humid spell with a higher chance of thunderstorms later. The rest of this week is less hot but still very warm, especially for the south and east.

The Ecm 12z ens mean shows warm / very warm weather persisting across the south/southeast next week with temperatures into the mid 20's celsius or a little above, largely fine in the south too, less warm and less settled across the northwest of the UK. It appears to be a nw/se split next week but having said that, we could still end up with high pressure in charge nationwide by days 9/10 like the ecm op.

Cheer up mushy, enjoy this week, the best week of this summer so far with hot sunshine and a very good chance of intense thunderstorms at times.

There is a lot to like about the Ecm 12z run with high pressure next week becoming more dominant and no sign of a return to cooler, unsettled Atlantic weather. More charts like these through the rest of this summer will do nicely.

It would soon become very boring if we all agreed with each other but I have to say, I agree with you on this occasion, lol

Interestingly the latest met office update says it will turn very warm and humid again next week away from the northwest of the BI after a cooler and fresher day on Sunday with an increasing chance of thundery showers in the south by next midweek which sounds to me like plume type weather returning, at least to the south, similar looking even further ahead too.It doesn't sound to me like we will be seeing a return to the normal / sometimes unseasonably cool pattern which dominated most of June..ie LP to the northwest and HP to the southwest which is what the EC32 showed, the MO further outlook is for a continuation of summery weather apart from the occasional cooler blip..e.g. this coming Sunday.

The Gfs 6z shows the first nationwide summery spell this week, across the board the temperatures soar into the 80's F and for parts of the south east..into the 90's. Super weather with long spells of hot hazy sunshine but becoming very humid, with an increasing chance of catching an intense thunderstorm, this run shows quite a few storms breaking out and spreading N/E. The plume pushes off to the east for a time with lower humidity on Thursday before spreading north again for fri/sat with increasing heat again. Further ahead, becoming fresher on Sunday from the west but staying warm in the south but cooler and more unsettled further north, a nice end to the run with high pressure over the UK.

Cheers wishfulwinter, much appreciated

Cheers for that mushy Rob but I'm just a small cog in a large wheel.Looking at the Ecm 12z ensemble mean, Great weeks weather coming up if you like heat, becoming very warm and humid, hot at times in the s/e and the plume comes back on fri/Sat...further outlook, staying warm / very warm in the south.

Well what a superb Ecm 12z we have here, lots of eye candy within the reliable timeframe now, favoured hot spots will reach the low 90's F on a few occasions in the next six days. Lots of hot Sun from the south coast to the northern tip of scotland and an increasing chance of intense thunderstorms. Best week of the summer so far by a long distance..BBQ weather. The plume comes, it briefly goes but like a boomerang it's back for an encore performance next Friday and especially Saturday..hopefully we won't have long to wait for the next one!

The Gfs 12z is very easy on the eyes this evening, what a super week ahead of us, lots of sunshine with temps / humidity soaring, especially further east / southeast and with the heat comes an increasing chance of catching a thunderstorm. Normally charts like these would be deep in FI but not this time..hope you all enjoy it.

Well, it's almost here and nothing can stop it now, the Gfs 6z shows the spanish plume surging northwards during Tuesday and wednesday, temperatures by tomorrow reaching 24c 75f in the south and nearer 28c by Tuesday and 30-32c in the hottest spots midweek, once again, the core of the plume is pushed east but it stays very warm / hot and very sultry, the heat rises further as the plume returns for an encore later Friday and into Saturday, things go crash, bang wallop on saturday before gradually freshening up from the west by this time next week. This will be a stonking week with plenty of scorching sunshine and increasing risk of thunderstorms, very muggy nights from tues/sat. Looking further ahead, staying warm in the south with the best of the fine weather, very warm at times. Northern UK becoming cooler but still pleasantly warm and occasionally fine but most of the rain throughout low res is across the north, especially Scotland...enjoy the heat

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows the initial northward surge of the spanish plume on Tuesday and the peak is reached on Wednesday, the plume is slowly shunted to the east on thurs/fri but the actual surface conditions will not change much, then the plume pushes back in from the southeast on Saturday with another scorcher before pushing away east by next Sunday with fresher conditions, however, beyond the end of next week it stays warm or very warm and largely fine in the south and more changeable but still pleasantly warm across northern UK. This is a great spell coming up nationwide, becoming very warm / hot and very humid with lots of sunshine but then scattered intense T-Storms breaking out, very uncomfortably humid nights with inner city areas, especially London, not dropping below 70F.

The Gfs 00z is like a copy of the 18z with the spanish plume initially building northwards from Tuesday and then shunted to the east by Thursday before returning for an encore from the southeast on fri/sat. Temperatures at their highest hit 31-33c, factor in the very high humidity when looking at 27c shown for thursday and feeling short changed. Next week is turning hot and sultry from the south from the south coast to the northern tip of scotland with long sunny spells and an increasing chance of intense thunderstorms. Looking further ahead, by Sunday it looks fresher but that is not the end of the heat, through low res although the north of the UK returns to normal, the south has regular incursions of +15 850's.

chill out knocker, it was a light hearted comment..jeez