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Long haul to mild

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Everything posted by Long haul to mild

  1. Long haul to mild
    So just a brief toppler on the GFS this morning but that still looks like a nasty storm, especially for the Eastern side of the UK. For what it's worth I don't think the evolution between Christmas and New Year is anything like nailed yet.
  2. Long haul to mild
    News coming through that the ECM employees, as a bit of fun on the last Friday before Christmas, had a "draw a chart that will never verify" competition. The winner would have their entry included in tonight's 12z run.Step forward T216! (would be just our luck if it did though!)
  3. Long haul to mild
    T240 on ECM looks a bit colder again from the North but where have all the Greenland heights gone? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014121912/ECH1-240.GIF
  4. Long haul to mild
    I personally would have been very surprised if we had cross model agreement at T192 and even if we did, there would inevitably be a model tomorrow morning that dumped the idea of cold instead! ECM goes wrong between T144 and T168 and doesn't allow the block to ridge between the lows, causing them to phase together instead. We end up with a belt of low pressure stretching from the southern mid Atlantic right up to Siberia! It looks wrong to be honest, but that doesn't mean it is of course. Plenty more solutions to be played out over the weekend I imagine! Yes, that huge elongated belt of low pressure just looks so odd, I really can't remember seeing anything like it before. For that reason, I hope it's got it completely wrong!!
  5. Long haul to mild
    It's the 18th December but you would think it's the end of March judging by some of the posts on here. When I was growing up, I was taught that winter didn't start until 21st December! The fact that I have seen more snowy Easters than Christmases further backs it for me! Anyone calling a winner from the models for synoptics ten days hence is very brave and liable to portions of a certain pie somewhere down the line!
  6. Long haul to mild
    WAY too much panic in here tonight, which is obscuring the facts. Even following the great model runs from yesterday and overnight, the coldest weather wasn't really due to hit until about the 27th or 28th. That's 9-10 days away; that's FI. The mere fact that we COULD get some significant cold soon is already better than last winter where I barely even saw a frost (already had several this month) let alone snow. And herein we find the problem with stellar model runs; the comedown when the next run is inevitably different is really big on here. So, to all those hitting the big red button marked "oh no" or "told you so" or "hahaha", I would say read Tamara's posts; winter has barely begun and the background signs are good. Snow is always more commonplace in Jan/Feb than Dec anyway. If it gets to halfway through Feb and nothing has still happened then I might begin to believe that we're out of luck again. But not yet. Hang in there folks.
  7. Long haul to mild
    I don't have much faith in any model beyond 6 days when it comes to that level of detail and I lost even more belief in the ECM after leading us up the garden path with a few cold runs in November that never materialised.Yes, there is always the risk of a good cold setup being messed up by something like the ECM shows but for me, two runs isn't enough to start being overly concerned. In fact you could say that the GFS P is equally bullish about a very cold spell between Xmas and New Year and has been showing it for more than just a couple of runs. As always, time will tell but I no longer think that the ECM is all-conquering. As for the Met, they have signified that there is uncertainty about the synoptics at that range, as there always will be. They are not likely to start ramping up events nearly two weeks away. Seems like my glass is definitely half full!
  8. Long haul to mild
    I am not too concerned about the chance of snow as that is exactly the kind of detail we simply can't predict at that time scale. At 10-14 days the trend is excellent and that's the key here. I seem to remember some wise words from days gone by on here: "get the cold in first and let the rest happen"
  9. Long haul to mild
    Couldn't agree more. There's no point getting too hung up on details for charts still 8-10 days away, that kind of thing will change with every run. What cold fans should focus on is what is NOT currently showing for the period between Xmas and New Year; i.e. mild Atlantic driven weather. Every model has some kind of unsettled and cold theme; just different takes on it. That has to be a good sign; the trend is clearly there.
  10. Long haul to mild
    Thanks to rjbw and Nick for their views, I think I have a better handle on what to look for in the outputs. I don't have a lot of scientific knowledge to add to the debate but what I will say is that many good cold spells and snow events that I can remember in recent times have appeared at around the T180 mark so I don't get too downhearted about model output 10 days plus ahead as things can and do change. That is not to denigrate in any way longer range forecasts and output which I believe have much to offer too.
  11. Long haul to mild
    Thank you John, that helps my understanding. I suppose that, just like the operational output differs, so do the anomaly charts across different models and organisations.
  12. Long haul to mild
    Now this is where I get confused. John says the anomaly charts show no change to the current pattern whereas others have posted anomaly charts showing expected HP into Greenland with resultant troughing to the East, which seems like a pattern change to me? Are different models showing different anomalies because I'm losing track!Apologies if I'm just being slow on the uptake.
  13. Long haul to mild
    Fair point and apologies if my original comment took the discussion off track; that was certainly not my intention. My point was more that I never see any model output here that could possibly lead to some of the very specific forecasts we see being made for dates almost three weeks hence.On to the 6z Gfs and still looking like a windy week ahead with some secondary depressions spawning off the main trough.
  14. Long haul to mild
    There is certainly a pattern change afoot in that only a week ago the models were touting the Azores High to be the main player in the UK weather this coming week and there was plenty of talk about the pleasant anticyclonic, quiet weather it would bring. Now however, we are looking at a wet windy and cold week ahead, with increasing chances of Northerly incursions. What this has taught relatively inexperienced people like myself is that the models are frequently wrong after about 7 days. That doesn't mean I don't value their existence or LRFs etc, but only for gaining more knowledge in the overall patterns that make up our weather. Actually trying to get into specifics is fraught with danger. So I take no notice of a mild forecast at 14 days out in the same way as a cold one.
  15. Long haul to mild
    If I recall correctly,the CFS and its insistence on a cold and blocked December in 2013 was one of the drivers behind those ridiculous "100 days of snow" headlines that were so spectacularly wrong. So let's discuss it by all means but it's not got a good track record and that's hardly a surprise given that most models struggle beyond seven days.Too much doom and gloom on here in my opinion; December rarely delivers much in the way of snow for the UK with a few notable exceptions. Loads of time still; winter is only four days old! The charts are different to this time last year, more PM incursions this time around, which often have far more potential to lead to something better down the line. I think the horror of last winter has got to people; more patience is needed. This chart looks pretty cold to me; not the big freeze that many are waiting for, but it's not mild mush SW'lys either and that's promising I think.
  16. Long haul to mild
    Some absolute classics on the model discussion thread in the last 24 hours. Apparently you can't take any notice of charts more than 5 days ahead, but in the same post the next four weeks is written off for any chance of cold weather. Make me wonder if people actually read what they have typed sometimes! Oh and by the way for all the people hitting the "no snow" panic button; check your calendars. it's November the 17th. It's still Autumn. For the next two weeks. And snow is fairly rare in most of the UK until at least mid December anyway.
  17. Long haul to mild
    Good grief, the main model thread is hard work at the moment. Loads of pointless arguments over subjects like what constitutes mild, with the mods having to continually step in to edit posts that get out of hand. We all have our own preferred weather type but the sniping gets very tedious and some of the posts are clearly worded to get a reaction. I wish people would stop it. I think it must be the mild snowless winter we had last year but for me, some people are scrutinising the models so hard and getting far too worried far too early about snow chances. It's only 12th November, still firmly autumn, and I don't usually consider that there's much chance of anything wintry until we get well into December anyway. Also, I don't think folks should get too hung up on seasonal model predictions; wasn't it the CFS last autumn forecasting significant HLB and cold for Nov/Dec 2013, leading to those silly "100 days of snow" headlines? Then look what happened; all to be taken with a pinch of salt. It certainly will be interesting to see how the OPI index vs the long range models plays out; they are forecasting completely different outcomes! In the meantime, I await the first "winter's over" post; wouldn't surprise me to see it before winter even starts!
  18. Long haul to mild
    I honestly think that after experiencing October 1987, everything else just pales in comparison and they don't stand out in my memory. Be thankful you were only about 1 when that one happened; I thought war had broken out from the racket it made!
  19. Long haul to mild
    I honestly don't recall the October 2000 storm Knightrider, but then again my memory isn't what is used to be
  20. Long haul to mild
    I honestly can't remember those storms you mention so I am assuming that they didn't cause the damage that St Jude did around here! Maybe you got those ones worse than us here?
  21. Long haul to mild
    Morning Knightrider I can assure you St Jude was worth the hype here; the strongest winds since 1987 that I can remember, 77mph recorded locally, albeit in a contained two hour spell. Last night's winds are like a weakly blown raspberry in comparison However, Jude was quite localised due to a narrow sting jet which blew West to East across Eastern counties north of London. Suffolk and North Essex were two of the worst hit.
  22. Long haul to mild
    For this autumn/winter, it's a Bronze medal here for this storm, just missing out on Silver (taken by Dec 23). Gold went comfortably to St Jude. Hope that's it for storms now, everyone's had quite enough I'm sure!
  23. Long haul to mild
    Not exactly looking forward to tonight. For this area, I am expecting similar gusts/duration as the 23rd December storm (65mph), but not as bad as the St Jude storm (75mph). Hope everyone comes out safely and intact the other side!
  24. Long haul to mild
    Think we were right in the path of a "sting jet" here during St Jude, which caused two hours of chaos (just ask my poor fence and most of the local trees), but it clearly wasn't the same for everyone. South Coast looks like the place for the strongest gusts tomorrow/Sat, but anywhere in the SE quadrant will have a pretty wild night by the sounds of it! At least the wind battered areas from yesterday will be largely spared this time.
  25. Long haul to mild
    St Jude was quite selective with who it hit, but it was easily the worst storm here since 87 and I am not expecting anything as bad during tomorrow and Saturday. Expected top gusts of just under 60mph here on Saturday; still unpleasant but nothing like the 75mph we got during St Jude.
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