Long haul to mild

Would not want to see the model threads diluted. To open a "hunt for cold" thread would mean the main model discussion would become very quiet and restricted to those with more technical knowledge, and there is already a thread for that anyway. I, and I am sure many others who have a basic knowledge of charts, use the model discussion thread to learn and interact with the experts; by removing the emotion of people who love traditional winter weather,it could become a closed shop where people are scared to post. The Mods already do a fine job in filtering out the pure moans and ramps from those posts which have a clear bias but are still objective and actually discuss the model output. I understand that anyone who prefers mild weather probably feels outnumbered on here, but that's just the way it is here; the vast majority are looking for snow and cold. I would suggest to those members a greater use of the ignore button when they see ramping that annoys them. As for cherry picking, what's the problem with that anyway? As long as it is relevant to model output and backed up with a few comments, then it's fine. There's a number of posters who post the mildest chart they can find as well as people posting cold based ones, so I don't think either "side" can claim to be discriminated against here. Finally, I think a "hunt for cold" thread would become a hunting ground for over emotional "winter's over" type trolling posts, and would lack in objective model discussion. We already have the moans and ramps thread for those, so why create another one? Just my tuppence worth......

Thanks for the replies. As recently as two weeks ago, an SSW was expected in early January, which turned out to be wrong. Is it unrealistic to hope that the forecasts of no SSW for the rest of the month could also be inaccurate? Sorry, just how my rather unscientific mind is thinking!

As far as strat forecasts are concerned, what kind of time period is the "foreseeable future"? Is it similar to the GFS i.e. about two weeks, or is it longer?

Interesting that below is the chart that gave us an ice day in many parts of the SE today. Quite deceptive I think; if you had that chart appear ahead in the model output no doubt there would be a few predictions of mildness and double figure temperatures!

A definite sense of "assume the worst" pervading this thread this morning. When FI NE'lys were showing on the GFS and GEFS yesterday, a lot the comments were along the lines of "oh it's FI", "just a bit of eye candy", "it's miles away", "pinch of salt" etc. All quite sensible and correct. Now following last night's 18Z and the 00Z runs which show a non-snowy MLB in FI, the comment trend is "we've lost our chance", "look to Feb", "disaster" etc. Considering we are talking about the same time ranges (about 300 hours) why is today's forecast of a MLB any more likely to be correct than yesterday's snowy nirvanas? FI is FI, occasionally a trend may be picked up on and verify but that doesn't happen with enough regularity that anyone should get too hung up on it. My only conclusion is that after last winter, everyone's view has been tainted and assumes that the weather will be as bad as it can be for cold prospects! There are times where I wish I could teleport back to the pre-internet days where the only long range forecast we had was Countryfile (or "weather for farmers" as it used to be called!) where a nice wintry surprise would be sprung on us at only a few day's notice!!

Yes, that was me!I assumed by meridional that we would be primarily looking at a NW (or maybe NNW) flow, which in my experience is not really a snow giver for the South. However as Severe Siberian Icy Blast mentioned, it is possible to get snow for the South in these setups particularly if there is entrenched cold air already present or disturbances in the flow, but history has told me that it is much harder without some kind of Easterly element. I guess it's because I have seen far too many N'lys deliver nothing to me except wind chill! Although having seen your location Cornish Snow, you might not benefit from Easterly elements and might well do better with a NNW anyway!

Going to have to respectfully disagree here mushy. I believe that weather is ultimately chaotic, and most good cold spells I can remember suddenly appeared on charts at about T180, so whilst I accept that the next week will not produce any cold weather as such, I won't yet write off anything outside days 8/9. This is not to deride in any way long range forecasts, anomaly charts or other drivers, because I think they are valuable tools in helping us understand the weather. However, many fine forecasters have been proved wrong at surprisingly short timeframes in the past by sudden changes in atmospheric conditions, and with 2/3rds of winter left, that is why many of us feel that epitaphs to either the winter or a particular month are being written too quickly. Already the models are picking up on colder signals mid-month and it would not surprise me to see them brought forward in future runs. Someone will no doubt light a fire in Southern Greenland later today and start off a whole new chain of events

I agree that there are causes for optimism in the future but that chart isn't one of them sadly. Raging PV to the North West, Azores high stretching into Europe, and a small feature crossing us bringing lots of rain; uppers of -4 won't be of any use for snow in that setup (unless you live in a shack up a mountainside)

Any crumbs of comfort, however small, will be seized upon I'm sure! Will be interesting to see if these signs are indeed maintained in future runs.Although it has to be said that for those in the South looking for snow, a meridional pattern alone would not likely deliver much, but hopefully something better could develop from that starting point.

Blocking is always three months away on the CFS it seems!!! I really don't rate that model at all.

Yes, models still poor for cold this morning, but was anyone really expecting any different? We've known for a few days now that a zonal spell will be taking place for the next couple of weeks but having just checked my calendar, I note that it is still December and even taking into account the output, assuming it is correct, that takes us to mid Jan. That means that we still have a whole two months opportunity to get something better (yes, I include the first half of March as historically I have seen far more snow then than I ever have in December). An SSW may well happen over the next 10 days and if so we will need to see if that can produce something for us; but the models will not be picking up on that as yet. Even if it does not occur, it doesn't mean winter is a bust; there are other ways to get pattern change. All coldies know the output is poor at the moment, but we also know things can and do change, and the weather has made fools out of very clever people in the past. It would certainly be nice to see the schadenfreude cut from some posts I have seen here in recent days.

I think the CFS is an awful model that is consistently getting it wrong so I take heart from that forecast! I still haven't forgiven it for the pathetic attempt at forecasting the early part of last winter, its rubbish predictions led to those awful newspaper stories of months of snow....

On the positive side though, strat forecasts change each day too and I would still say that the trend is in the right direction. Whether or not we benefit from any warming is another matter though of course!

I clicked on that link determined to find something to cling to, some redeeming feature. "It can't be that bad" I thought. But you're right, it's a disgusting chart if you are looking for cold. I still think later in Jan may bring something far better though, we just have to ride out this boring Atlantic period in the meantime.....

There always seems to be more confidence in Strat forecasts but I guess they are just as prone to not panning out as trop modelling. Hope it does happen; although we know a SSW is not an all-encompassing guarantor of cold, it would be a handy card to fall in place at a time when the models are offering so little in the way of succour.

Matt Hugo on Twitter reckons that ECM has virtually annihilated the vortex at 10hpa by 8th Jan, so I'm guessing that we will soon start to see any trop response in the outputs?

Yes, that is probably the focus now. The next 10-14 days don't look great in terms of the pattern with the spell of westerlies and potentially stormy conditions set to arrive. However if the stratosphere continues to warm then we may start to see some better trends in FI soon as the vortex has some pressure applied to it. Lots of time left this winter to get some good cold spells.

Fair enough, however the GFS does have a history of blowing away robust blocks in low resolution by assuming that the Atlantic will conquer all. This tendency was repeatedly proved incorrect in the past (2013 springs to mind as an example?) with breakdowns to mild weather being massively delayed.

Thankfully it is a long way out into FI and given the GFS's seeming tendency to flatten almost any pattern after day 7, we can hope that it is just up to its usual tricks!

That's fair enough but the "fantasists" you derided earlier are also doing the same, but they are looking into trends and ensemble members instead of the operationals alone. Everyone is entitled to their view of the output be it optimistic or pessimistic but considering the best respected models don't go out beyond 7-10 days, then everything can be considered as FI after that so claims of whole months being lost to zonality are somewhat premature.

You may well be right in your prediction but calling for zonal conditions in the British Isles is a bit like saying that Chelsea have a good chance of winning the League, therefore for me there is very little kudos attached to it!

Yes, I use it a fair bit, it's just a pity that you still get to see the ignored posts when others quote them in replies.

Oh, the winter's over posts have been here believe me, but one of the Mods mentioned the other day that such posts would be removed from this thread as the crystal ball gazing they indulge in clearly does not relate to model output. Therefore they tend to disappear! Those deBilt Ensembles had some serious cold options in there only 24 hours ago which prompted talk of cold spells. The absence of any such indicators tonight is typical of the volatility of the model output at present.

Downbeat posts are one thing and are understandable given the promise so far unfulfilled. However, it is when it spills over into dramatic proclamations of winter's demise that people get annoyed. I don't think many realistic posters on here ever expected a "blockbuster" winter but I will concede that we hoped for more signs of a colder spell with blocking by now. That of course does not mean it will not happen, SSW or no SSW.

All of January? 34 days ahead? And a continental feed in Feb/Mar would be fine; had lots of good snow events that time of year in the past. Hope you're right about that! And if a high sets up around Scandinavia temps could plummet through the floor. However your scenario is not showing in the model output as far as I am aware so not sure as to its relevance?