Long haul to mild

Unbelievable run from the GFS. Wonderful to look at; the excitement only tempered by the fact that all the action is in FI and the chances of it coming off like that are very small. However, the fact that an operational run is showing those kind of conditions at all should be cause for some cautious optimism about cold and snow prospects for January,

ECM showing windy weather for Xmas Day but still not buying into the storm.

Real letdown here, nothing wintry at all today, just rain showers.

Yes, ECM doesn't clear the trough to the South like GFS does, so it's harder to get any colder air to dig down.

I've become a bit of a convert to those anomaly charts this winter as I think they are good at picking out the mid range overall pattern. For anyone wanting widespread snow in the next couple of weeks we will need to see signs of the +ve anomalies heading to Greenland else it's likely to be more of a NW flow with snow reserved for the usual favoured spots.

Certainly some interesting charts but I'll keep at the back of my mind that according to a run from GFS a week ago, it should have been snowing here about now and lasting well into tomorrow! Therefore charts at T192 aren't something I'm going to take too literally. Nevertheless there is starting to be some good model agreement for the general pattern next week and some wintry weather is likely at times for some places.

Yes, maybe something more like this (CAUTION : historic eye watering chart alert): Those were the days, I can only imagine how exciting the model thread would have been leading up to that; if only the internet was around then!! Nowadays everything seems to be marginality and downgrades and blocking being blown away..........

Suppose I was always interested in the Easterly due to my location and the fact that they are incredibly rare nowadays, so it's very disappointing to see it apparently fizzle out so tamely. Was therefore looking to next week for the diving trough and subsequent NE'ly that has been showing on most models (particularly GFS) but there seems to be a general movement away from that too at the moment.

Have to agree with that. The Easterly this weekend gets weaker and more short lived with each run and it is pretty much gone by the end of Sunday. Next week looking increasingly flat and the GFS appears to be moving towards the ECM. Just hoping that Singularity is right about the MJO possibly confusing the models.

Interesting. Admittedly I tend to only look at it in the medium range and always find it bad at spotting trends, be they mild or cold.

I've long since given up on the GEM, I find it appalling generally. Every now and again it is correct, but I think it's more because of the "even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day" maxim than anything else......

Seems to be pretty good model agreement to drop LP to the SW of the U.K. next weekend. How it transpires after that it crucial to snow chances. I'm not usually fussed about the pub run but tonight's will be very interesting in what solution it offers. Same goes for the overnight runs, some consistency would be nice, especially as Nick Sussex's laptop (not to mention many other members' electronic devices) may not survive the throw from the window if this all goes pear shaped again!

Someone pop out to Staples and get a trough sharpener for the ECM! Apparently the Bolivian model* has a trough so sharp its mum has warned it that it will cut itself one day....... Seriously though, these charts have the sneaky hint of improvements in them and the GFS, which is usually first to plough in with a flat pattern is really picking up the baton for next week. These heights to the NE can be very hard to shift and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see some very interesting cold charts over the next few days. We deserve some snow just for Nick Sussex's sake if nothing else; his quest for a countrywide event is tireless and he won't even get to experience it if it does arrive! *may not exist

We get wind and rain pretty much all year round so while I agree there is some notable weather in the medium term, I use the models to look for something different. Therefore my focus will remain on the hope of something either involving cold and snow or some pleasant unseasonable warmth. Certainly no sign of the latter at present in the models but looking at the outputs today, it wouldn't take a lot to turn a UK trough to something that would open the floodgates to a Northerly. ECM and some GFS ensemble members have continually shown interest in something wintry as we go to mid month and a slight nudge in the right direction (East and South!) will pay dividends.

Indeed it does ; a very timely post! Phase 3 would seem to hold far more interest, with the Azores High firmly pushed away to the south west.

Interesting chart! Appreciate it is FI but what would it mean for the overall outlook when a PV lobe sets up shop over Britain? Would that lead to something better for cold prospects?

While that may be turn out to be true this time, the GFS was appalling in the recent cold snap, continually bringing Atlantic mildness in a whole week before it actually happened. I think it is a bit early to be calling victories for any of the models yet, even though it now looks like ECM was over amplifying with its runs yesterday.

Yes, the last thing we need is that Euro high sticking around; it's one of the biggest problems we've had in getting cold here this winter. Hopefully we will see the GFS back down from that idea, but I get the feeling we are in for an interesting but fraught period of model watching!

IMBY moan post klaxon! I see all the talk on the model thread is of Feb being dominated by NW winds. That wind direction is an utter waste of time over in this corner of the country, might as well have Southerlies for all the snow chances a NW wind brings here! Only a E or NE flow is any good, otherwise it might as well not bother Coming out of whine mode, I hope that those who do benefit from PM / NW air get some decent snowfall

Yes, pretty grim for cold as early as T120: Eventually goes to a UK HP, which drifts East afterwards:

I am certainly too far East to get anything from this. Hope all those who get something enjoy it!

Because GFS had us in mild SW winds for this weekend only a few days ago, whereas UKMO was always going for cold?

After a few hours of sleet, it's snowing and blowing a gale here, starting to settle a bit on cars and grass. Looking at the radar, seems that there is more to come this evening. Hoping the rest of the snow lovers on here get something over the coming days and weeks.

Snowing hard here now, settling on cars and grass, still very windy too.

Mainly sleet here but snowier in heavier bursts. Blowing an absolute gale too!