Long haul to mild

It is immensely frustrating that every time we seem close to a great pattern setting up, something comes along to scupper it. Maybe we'll get a shot at a HP retrogression to Greenland a bit further down the line that could open up possibilities? Certainly some promise in the charts, but of course so far this winter promise has led to nothing........

All the hi res models currently showing a period of potential (probably only temporary) snow on Sunday for parts of EA and the SE (esp Kent) as a weather front drops down into the entrenched cold air, Will be interesting to see how this pans out as time goes on. On another note, hope all those on the coast stay safe tonight.

What a damp squib that turned out to be! When will we finally get a snow event with no marginality?

Flickering lights up here in Ipswich too. However, the sleet we had earlier is now back to rain. Looks like a bit of a non-event here.

Seems to be relating to the intensity of the ppn; the areas with darker green colours on the radar seem to be the places that have the heavy snow.

Yes, definitely sleeting now, some big flakes mixed in but not proper snow yet.

Still just rain here near Ipswich, but don't think we're due to see any potential snow until 7 or 8pm.

Here you go.... Edit : @ghoneym beat me to it lol but you now have a choice of Europe or N Hemisphere charts! :-)

GFS still brings an area of rain, sleet and snow down the Eastern side of the country on Friday morning. Could be some nasty conditions considering the strength of the wind too. Very marginal for ppn type and the mild sector may keep it as rain near the East coast.

To illustrate how Friday's potential snow feature is very questionable at present: Below is from NMM model; snow moving South through the region: But this is how the ARPEGE shows it; nothing to see here..... Which way will it go?

Slight SE'ly tilt to the wind direction at T216 brings in a bit less cold uppers to the SE quadrant but hey it's still a great chart and lots to be optimistic about at the moment anyway!

Sorry to ask a silly question but still learning. What happened to that quite deep looking Azores low on the T144 chart? It seems to have virtually gone by T168, yet the High has been pushed Northwards?

Beware of taking anything too literally about Friday at this stage. There's a warm sector to that depression very close to the East coast which will keep ppn as rain or sleet for East Suffolk and Norfolk. If that warm sector comes too much further West it will affect inland areas too. Ideally we want to see a tiny shift East of that mild sector so everyone gets snow but not too far East or there won't be enough ppn to begin with! Talk about a knife edge situation. Lots of twists and turns to come no doubt!

Well despite this Met Office graphic, I'll be staggered if I see any settling snow out of what is effectively a NW'ly. Ten minutes of transient sleet is more likely going by past experience!

Ok so this cold snap is going to deliver some snow for the North but down here it will just be a cold wind and the odd sleet shower as usual when a NW'ly is involved. I only get interested when there might be an Easterly but I think I have more chance of winning the lottery than the UK getting one of those! I love snow but if we are not going to get that, it may as well be dry and mild. Cold and wet or cold and dry does nothing for me at all. At least with mild weather I don't have to worry about ice on the cycle paths! Moan over, if you get some snow later this week, enjoy it

After a promising T168 chart, ECM FI goes all wrong and squashes the high back into Europe, leaving us in a W or SW flow. So a bit of a downbeat morning but still some hope for next week as the models clearly haven't nailed down the pattern properly yet.

Big disappointment from the UKMO 0Z We have gone from a nice clean Northerly flow with amplification on the 12Z to a modified NW flow and a rounded high with too much energy to the North on the 0Z ECM still has some amplification at the weekend but it's now on its own of the big three. Need a switch back on the 12Z UKMO to stop this being a two day cold snap then a return to Westerlies and the Azores slug. Sigh.

Completely agree with this. I know it's only anecdotal but I've been following the winter model output for years and I can hardly ever recall a situation where the 0Z runs improved on the 12Z, especially when cold has been forecast. In fact, they usually go the other way. Seems that most of the time folks go to bed happy only to be brought down to earth with a bump in the morning!

Or put another way, this forum may not be a pretty place to be come 6.30 tonight! It's quite an education on here; I never knew before how much a seemingly innocuous area of low pressure on the West coast of the USA could affect our weather down the line!

Haha sorry, but NW'lys are notoriously poor for my neck of the woods so I use the model output to chase any sign of an Easterly possible, however unlikely it may be! I do find the differences at such an early timescale quite staggering. For me this shows that all the supercomputers in the world struggle with the chaotic nature of weather!

The latest output from the UKMO model won't have been factored in to any public forecasts as yet, and the 12Z is a better prospect for cold than the 00Z.

So IF (and I know how big an 'if' it is when another model shows the kind of weather we are used to having) the UKMO 144 chart verified, would it likely lead to an Easterly along the line? Just asking for a friend......

Great outputs tonight but it always seems to me that the 0Zs (especially GFS) are the hangover runs that try to tell their late night counterparts to sober up and stop being so silly! Really want to see the trends continued tomorrow even though the detail may be different. Snow fans really don't need more teases and let downs. I suspect a middle ground solution will transpire, nothing as snowy as 18Z but not as flat and zonal as the 12z GFS either. It could just mean another UK high but maybe we could get it to edge North enough to give us a shot......

I'm no expert but it looks to me that even if the Atlantic and Scandinavia ridge join forces at T240, we will just end up with a belt of HP over the UK that will have set up too far South to get any proper cold air drawn our way. There looks to be too much energy to the North to allow the High to migrate to where we would need it to be?

Some really nice runs in the GFS ensembles but a few zonal borefests that make you want to spit too! Here's two good'uns with a not so nice one in the middle!