Long haul to mild
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Everything posted by Long haul to mild
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Quite a turnaround in the last half hour. Coming down steadily and now settling here just outside Ipswich.
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Snowing heavily here now, but no chance of settling due to all the rain earlier.
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Interesting. I'm in the green area and it's all rain. But if the snow line has reached NE Essex then maybe it'll make it here later.....I can hope!
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Yes, that's always a killer for our snow hopes in these marginal setups. Where's that Easterly we ordered?
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Good to hear you've got some snow Just hammering it down with rain here!
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Yes, NMM, ARPEGE, HIRLAM all showing main snow risk for prone areas as being between 9am and midday. Before that, it's more of a rainy affair.
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I've been following the last few HIRLAM runs and the heavy snow areas have definitely moved South over the course of the day. The 6Z had the heaviest ppn over Suffolk , by the 12Z it was over N Essex, now the 18Z has it over S Essex. My experiences with the HIRLAM in the summer were that it was quite good but tended to overstate precipitation amounts. Hopefully it hasn't this time!
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From the current charts it looks like inland will do ok for snow but anything within about 10-15 miles of the coast will be sleet or rain. Could all change of course....
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Yes, I would say there has definitely been a shift towards sleet and snow across more of East Anglia in the last couple of model runs so we might still be in the game, especially when the heavier precipitation arrives mid morning. The latest ARPEGE shows this well, with only a very small coastal strip in Suffolk getting rain. In fact, it just appears to be the coast itself, as it is snowing out at sea in that map!
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Thanks, you too, about time us people by the coast had some snow luck!
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Yes, we need an Easterly. Been ages since we had one of them, they always deliver the goods! Like yourself, my expectations for tomorrow are low......
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I know, I hate hearing it too and I hated having to type it! I love living near the coast but the downside is it ruins our snow chances most of the time!
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HIRLAM 06Z still keen on a period of heavy sleet or snow for East Anglia during Sunday morning. The further inland you are the more likely it is to be snow. Still likely to be that dreaded "wintry mix" for locations like mine which are quite close to the coast.
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Interesting that the HIRLAM has rain to begin with near the East coast but then brings through a band of heavy snow mid morning which seems to remove that marginality. The NMM also shows this too but I remain sceptical and am still expecting rain or sleet at best here.
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It's going to be knife edge stuff! I'm about 10 miles outside it
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Not sure I like the idea of a huge area of Yellow Snow.....I'd prefer the white stuff.
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Agreed, I find that anything other than an Easterly (or maybe a North Easterly) is pretty much a waste of time for snow hopes over here.
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Easterlies are usually hard to predict so maybe it's a bit better than I've credited it with. I see it keeps with the Easterly theme next week too with more cold pools lurking, interesting times!
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SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->
Long haul to mild replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Cripes the model thread is a bit manic at times isn't it? Such wildly swinging emotions; only potential snow could cause such things! -
If it called this Easterly first then fair enough, but I am still not convinced. The reason I am rather anti GEM is that, following some people saying how good it was, I tried to use it for trends over the summer and found it very inaccurate. It seemed to succumb to the same Atlantic based bias that the GFS suffers from. ECM was generally better but to be honest I have learned not to trust any FI output and tend to just use the UKMO nowadays, winter or summer.
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OK, I will have to respectfully disagree on that. Not nonsense it my view, It followed up one of its cobra runs last week with a westerly dominated fast breakdown; I also followed it during last summer and found it to be generally poor.
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Of all the things I've learned on here (and there are a great many) , up there with the most important is to take no notice of the GEM at all. It has more flip flops than Benidorm beach. If we had believed the GEM at the end of last week, most of the Eastern half of the country would have been iced over and snow bound by this Wednesday!
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I suppose it is stellar in that people will be able to see the stars through the gaping holes in the roof! Thankfully it is at T240 and almost certainly won't come off like this; hopefully not anyway. It's usually the GFS that blows up LPs like this.
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Agree. If the models are underestimating the strength of the block in the reliable, which is quite possible, then the low res ensembles are hardly likely to show anything other than a return to default UK weather in winter. It may be my perception but most cold spells I can remember pop up at about T168, often from nowhere. Therefore, although probability suggests that a zonal mean at T384 may end up being correct, it doesn't mean it will necessarily come to pass.
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Seen this many times before over the years where the models try to blow away a block to our East but in fact the result is very different. With so much doubt over the eventual outcome it really does surprise me when I see posts claiming that we'll have to wait for mid-Feb before there's any chance of cold or snow. The only justification for that line of thinking is if you take model output at D16 etc at face value which is a huge leap of faith.
