snowhope

Just this fine dandruff falling from the sky, No moisture in the air I am guessing. Is this likely to change. We are quite far south in the midlands (Worcestershire/Gloucestershire border) but I have not seen anything resembling snow rates that will give 4 inches we were advised of. Not at all sure about this.......

For the first time in a long time I wish I still lived in Abergavenny! I would be happy with that to! Working in Tewkesbury I am hoping its enough for a snow day

@Glacier Point What are you thinking for Worcestershire (i am in Upton upon Severn, fairly near you I think) over the next few days GP? Looking at the Met and BBC latest forecasts we seem to be on the Eastern Edge of the precipitation with the heavy stuff missing us and going into wales and staying in the South West. Where would you anticipate to get hit the heaviest?

I know it was just for fun, but still annoying how the heaviest snow falls in the Irish Sea!

I know we should take precipitation with a pinch of salt but I am confused. We are seeing a cm or 2 of predicted on these charts and for the spine of Britain from the midlands south nothing at all in terms of precipitation. I am not sure I remember the last decent easterly very well (1991??) but will this setup really give the whole country snow or are we in the south and west of the country going to have to rely on a Low pressure hitting the block as per Dec 2017 before we get to see anything but cold from this predicted outbreak? This seems to be a more Easterly affair to me. Thanks in advance

At this range neither have much chance of verifying as shown so its all Mute. Interesting that the low shows up from last nights 18z though, Look for trends, not specifics!

Is it still generally the concensus that we should compare runs to the previous days or to subsequent runs now? eg 18z yesterday for 18z today?

A flake would be Amazing, Lying snow would be too much to ask.... surely! Looking at the last few runs though there is a chance over the midlands to see some snow. All dependent on mixing out the warm sector and as others have mentioned the intensity of the evaporative ecooling effect to see it to low levels.

I suppose many more runs and changes to come yet, some upgrades would be nice rather than the expected downgrades.....

You really couldn't be more unlucky! Cold Air all around us with a massive mild sector over practically the whole of the UK. It brings to mind this line from a famous poem: "Water, water, every where, Nor any drop to drink"

This should tell you all you need to know though. The models as we have all seen in the past week or so are so volatile in their output, why would the MO/BBC commit? Millions of people rely on them for the forecasts! With the models in such a state of disagreement in the relative short term it would be a brave person to commit to a scenario on here let alone in the national Media.

Its been said many times before, weather sells newspapers. One year they may get it right but if they do it will be pure dumb luck!

Snowing in Tewkesbury where I work. Covered the ground and trees. First snow in nearly 2 years wooooohoooo

Whether you are right or wrong Phil, thanks for putting together a clear and concise forecast backed up nicely. I would gladly take your forecast if you are right!

Wont be going on till we get frosts and sub zero nights, even then the windows stay open!

Can snow penetrate right across the country in these setups or is it more likely an Eastern only event if it comes off?

Can Wales see convection off an easterly of this type or would it be eastern and central UK that benefit from this setup, am just confused when peoples say showers penetrating in land? Thanks still learning here

Nothing in the south west of the region but was always going to be a non event here, not even raining currently

I think some people forget just how expansive the midlands are, some saying snow event for the midland can be misleading. Half of the midlands on the current output would still see a marginal/non snow event. Need further shifts south and west over coming days for this to include the whole of the region. Would be nice for once not to have to ride the rollercoaster right up until the day especially with some of the ppn totals showing... ahh for an all snow event somewhere is likely to get pasted but where will it be

I think looking for trends in the models over coming days is now the way to go, we are not quite out of the current cold spell which has provided something for most. Still time to feel the effects of what winter can offer. Most indications of cold have been picked up in the relative short term by most models. Lets see what unfolds day to day without trying to predict an entire months weather a week before we even reach it. Chin up chaps, it could be worse. You could be a Swansea Ball boy!

latest charts have this going through solid until tomorror fingers crossed

Dunno about malvern but its hammering it down here now, long may it last wooohoooo

They even have stopped that now with the flood defenses!!!! Is it settling in malvern? Just about trying to here now

lol I need to blame someone inch and a half of snow is all we have seen down here at 6m asl

Lighter here in Upton now, Malverns blocking my fun as always