Troubleatmill

Not sure what you are looking at buddy, the UK looks mostly dry on those three ens members?

Obviously nothing has verified yet, however each model is going further away from a continuation of cold. Or course it's entirely possible all the models are wrong, but surely it's more realistic to think they may be right? Let's hope for a big turnaround from where we are headed, although if the models are wrong and the more knowledgeable are right, we aren't heading there anyway, it's a dilemma

I'm still holding out for what the likes of Tamara have said, they know way more than me and most of us. Sadly the models arent switching yet, although ECM extended will be interesting later, as last night the pressure anomoly was pretty good after a brief unsettled week 2. Just hoping, but in the end the weather is unbridled chaos really, bit like my wife sometimes, don't know what she will do next either

Or some in the north. 2010 my last fall, can anyone beat that? I'm hoping some little feature will show up in the Irish sea at short notice. The charts look favourable for that

And Preston

Have to be of an age to remember Francis Wilson

Financially probably but they will always be southern so I hold some sympathy for them, must be hard being unfriendly most of your life and needing to set the alarm on holiday to get the towel on the sun beds poor souls

I meant tweaked before updates rather tweaked before each run (as I said knowledge and math improved) . Would you not expect some or even one ensemble to go cold going off what the knowledagble are saying? If not what's the point of models?? I'm playing devil's advocate obviously as ive been around long enough to know what you say is true. But when NO ensemble is cold and humans says everything AAM, MJO ect...is pointing cold (models WILL take these into account)....something gives surely Anyhow, thanks for responding, much appreciated mate

Thanks very much for that bud. Yeah I realise the models aren't people, but surely the models are only computers and algorithms set by knowledgeable people who know the things you mention and build them in,...perhaps 'tweaking' occasionally as knowledge & math are superseded? There are no members here, and I would expect a few at least?

I'm confused with longer term ideas, if any one can advise? On one hand we have very knowledgeable people on this forum saying that everything points to cold going forward (after nexts week spell), yet the ensembles (using GEFS admittedly) show little to sign of that? Surely the staff at GFS,ECM ect are just as clever as our clever folk on here and we would see that on the models? It just conflicts massively

Only my own experience of this rather than scientific. When short waves or polar lows are picked up on the models at short notice, they tend to be more west come the event. I.e initially shown to affect me in lancashire but then turn more into a Wales, West Midlands and south west event.

I think the difference between this set up and the normal track of these type of lows, is that the cold air is not yet in place, so it will be all about timings of each airmass. I also understand the whole concept that the further south a low tracks, the longer the cold is kept in. However that's only ideal if places further north got snow afterwards (so south and north get snow...all happy families lol), in reality the cold normally hangs about for another two days and then the Atlantic full onslaught with no battleground. Not the usual set up this though is it....who knows

After next week's fun, games and no doubt frustrations, there is a growing number of GEFS ensembles building heights to our East NE

Offend? No, not at all mate, sorry.. I think you missed my point, i wasnt questioning you at all. Sometimes I think we were far less stressed before we had access to so much info. (Goes for Life in general too i guess) Maybe before your time and I am getting past it

I sometimes miss the old 'farming' weather which used to be on TV every Sunday at midday in the late 70s - 80s. We never had this aggro back then . If that was now and it said it was going to be cold all week with snow at times...happy days for everyone. Nowadays we look for the end before it's begun and micro analyse it all, shame really hey mate

Think if anything it's going more into a bitter Norwester, which for some is better than any northeasterly

Current temps, dew point and wet bulb temps in Preston Town centre, lovely wintry wind to go with them!

Yeah same in Preston, wind mixes the slightly warmer atmospheric air with the colder 'nearer the surface' air, making it harder to freeze at ground level. Also the reason we coin the terms ground frost and air frost. An air frost happens at a colder temp than just a ground frost

ECM 00z looks about perfect for a major snow event event for the midlands/ north of England and all of Scotland in the latter time frames, bank this run for sure!!

It's the problem in the model discussion thread. Unless your from daan saaf you can get drowned out by the noise from down there. Can be a bit like when you are on holiday...you always know where the noisy groups will be from.

Jeeze, thats cold! suppose Shropshire got to -26 in 1982, not a million miles away from there so could happen maybe..with a bit of snow cover .

Think that suprise big snowfall in December was just southern Cumbria. Amazed how many daan saaf think the north gets plastered all the time. So often when cold gets way down south the areas that get snow when the Atlantic comes in are just the midlands southward

A chart for the archives, about as perfect as it gets

I don't think anything has changed really, it's been the 15th since it was 1st picked up. I do we believe we are on dangerous ground though, looking at greats charts so far away that they have only just started to appear at the very end of ECM runs is full of banana skins and potential mirages . Great model watching, as long as you realise that's all it is at the moment.

Totally get you MJB and pretty pointless this far out hey, although I believe all you would get from those charts is perhaps some back edge snow as cold air undercuts. High risk high reward for me is when cold air is already in place and you have systems 'trying' to get. No bother, still turns out great anyway hey mate