Troubleatmill

?? Not sure where that cold air is on the 06z MJB? O6z Op run is definitely not what we want

It's weird but after the 06z I was thinking exactly the same. Maybe completely the opposite and they all show nirvana in the ops and ens...just think the run you describe is usually about due

Yes spot on YP, I remember it well too! It was one of those very few occasions where the GFS Op picked something up way out and stuck with it until it actually happend

West based -nao = blocking in the Western North Atlantic Ali, so it's certainly possible. I'm as hopeful as you for a memorable event but still very cautious.

15 years I believe

Wouldn't it just. It's great to see such charts isn't it, with so many crackers in the ensembles! Think the ECM Op is telling us to be a wary at the moment though hey

I'm not over struck, despite the seemingly stunning synoptic. 850's aren't good & I think there is a real risk of a west based -nao if it panned out like this, with the UK on the wrong side of the trough.

Agree with you there Duane. Anyhow, as the UK is one big flood zone at the moment it will take two weeks of high pressure to give the snow (that comes later) a fighting chance of sticking!

If we can get some low DPs and wet bulb temps, it will help 'suck' the water from the ground too. Most places really need it, fields around these parts have been waterlogged since last Sept

It looks pretty certain we will will have a UK high building in next weekend on the GEFS, looking forward to it! What happens from there is anyone's guess currently. We have a window of opportunity when the high is sat over us. With low pressure over more southern and SE Europe this ensures that the high doesnt quickly flatten out, but with the TPV to our north holding firm, it has no where else to go. Will the TPV weeken and split to allow WAA and get this high to go north (plenty of opportunity to do so)? or will the low pressure to our south fill and give way first, letting the high sink to its favoured place? Bit of a race I think

Personally I am loving these precipitation ensembles after what has been endless grey and rain since last June! Happy New Year everyone

GEFS Stamps for the 9th showing how wide the spread is

Crikey, reading that buddy, SSWs are actually Sudden Somerset Warmings! who knew!!

Ensembles are looking good, think it's the first time the mean GEFS has dropped below the -5

I think it's important to remember that we are looking at possibilities rather than forecasts at the moment. The EC ensembles, with far more members, highlight this, perhaps better than the GEFS.

It would be great if there was a semi permanent feature called the Labrador high wouldn't it!

Icon is the worse, then better then the same...easy

Thanks Met4Cast . Would you know if we knew about things like SSWs back in 1962? Looking at the Archives for mid Dec 1962 and it's hard to believe what was about to happen a week later. I take my hat off to you, Blue, Tamara and Catacol, (and GP before that). Part of me thinks the weather is just chaos and un-forecastable after maybe a week max because of that, but you guys push the boundaries, even though you can be open to criticism from a few 'thumbsuckers'

Same, I can tell it's written in English but that's where my understanding stops

t384 on the GFS, pfft what's the point looking. However, the number of members on the 06z going for a HLB akin to ec46 shows which way they are both thinking ...at last!!!

And don't forget to enjoy what ever the weather is is doing today, get out into nature to appreciate the beauty each weather type can bring...one of these weather types is hard to come by, probably reason we hunt it so much!

ECMWF | Charts CHARTS.ECMWF.INT Yes!

Indeed we do have to start somewhere , but even with these NH postage stamps I don't see a pattern to watch for, some are good, some are bad and some are in the middle, but like you say..we have to start somewhere. Think until the ensembles start grouping together we can live with hope but nothing more , not questioning your knowledge, just playing devil's advocate I guess

Not sure I am seeing what you are seeing mate. Not saying you are wrong, I just don't see it, looking at the GEFS pastage stamps at t240, look a bit meh overall, not awful, just meh :