Paul_1978

Good news or bad regarding the Aleutian ridge?

People say this is no 2010, which is quite correct, but surely we are in a prime position for cold and snow over the coming weeks, if perhaps not as severe as that famous winter. So don't be disheartened. To be honest, if we can get a repeat of the events Dec 1990 and Feb 1991 alone then that would be a great winter! So whilst I won't be looking for a 2010, I'll certainly be looking for a one off "big" snow event. Surely we've got a higher chance than normal this winter.

Where's CreweCold disappeared to? Spends ages chasing cold charts - we get some and he's nowhere to be seen.

@Essex snowman rated the post as “sad” but surely it’s better than the ensembles are “flatter” rather than “climbing”?

Thanks Paul, will try that to determine the root cause, but I can't turn the add-ons off permanently as we need them for our Trello board. Will try using the site in IE instead of Chrome too.

Yes there is an ad blocker and also some add ons. I am using Chrome on a work-issued device. I tend not to use IE at work as it is very slow.

I should clarify this is on Google Chrome on Windows laptop. OK on iPhone.

https://twitter.com/weathertrending/status/936633927984472064

If I'm in a thread, eg Model Output, sometimes a pop-up comes up at the bottom saying "New Posts", and you have an option to click the link to show the new posts. However, if one of the posts is from a person on your Ignore list, it shows their message in the left hand column under their name, rather than in the larger field to the right of their name.

Indeed. We are in danger of straying, but @terrier didn't mention this key paragraph from the extended outlook. Confidence is currently low for which pattern will be most likely prevail at this stage as it currently looks to be a constant battle between weather systems arriving from the south and west against the push of colder air from the north. This suggests temperatures will generally be below average with some milder interludes. Nevertheless, model watching in coming weeks sure to be as exciting as it is frustrating! Can't wait!

You couldn't make it up! The rollercoaster continues. I don't know if I'm coming or going .

So the 00z GFS shows a deepening low approaching western Scotland at T+168. By T+186 it take a south-east track into Ireland and into the channel, resulting in a North/North-Easterly wind across the UK by T+201. The North/North-Easterly is pretty much gone within 24 hours replaced by a Westerly, before we go into low-res. Then we clearly see pattern indicative of a meridional Jet Stream which is basically what we've had in the last few weeks. So to me we are still stuck in a rut of northerlies coming and going every week or so, but I also feel we are approaching a crossroads where something has got to give. There are goings on in the strat, as well as events in the Pacific which have been mentioned. One thing is for sure, it's going to make an interesting few days model watching to see which way the cards fall, and who knows which way it's going to go. That's why we are all here. But the thing for me is that it's 1st December tomorrow, the meteorological start of Winter. We've had some great model watching recently and it's easy to forget it's actually still only been Autumn.

Are you allowed to post graphs of that?

To me it's more of a case of getting too emotional with each run as Zakos pointed out. If you think back to 2015 and many other winters and then think this latest EC run is 'absolutely dire' then I don't understand it.

Weren't you wanting low heights to the south a few minutes ago? You have low pressure over Portugal and Spain there.

Such a range of opinions and emotions!

Guys, hold your horses - I can only see one frame on the 12z ECM that looks "dodgy" and that's the T+192. The T+216 chart looks to have the situation recovered. You're always going to get nuances run by run - I don't see why people are getting too hung up on one frame. Don't get too low with the lows or too high with the highs and you'll have a much more enjoyable model watching experience,

Summer Sun may well be aware what the chart is showing, but many aren't. Team Jo asked earlier today if people would be so kind as to not just post a chart with no wording or context. Anyway, enjoy model watching all - I know I am!

Upgrade, downgrade, upgrade downgrade.......... Come on guys, we have the same every run. Nothing is really changing. You're always going to get variances. The overall pattern is the same.

Reply to self..., Just checked the (new?) ECM northern hemisphere archives. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=0&month=12&day=9&year=1990&map=0&hour=6&type=era&region=nh December 1990 was a strange evolution (follow it through from 1/12/90). Northerly to a North Easterly to a full on Easterly. Looking at the vortex then (seemingly quite strong) then the current situation is a totally different ball game.

Yes indeed. Classic “wishbone” effect from a northerly wind. However I believe the significant snow of Dec 1990 was from a northerly. Will have to check that out in the archives.

I wonder if I could suggest some changes to post ratings? ”Thanks” change to “Thank you”. ‘Thanks’ to me sounds like “Yeah thanks a bunch” which people might say sarcastically. New ratings I think would add some value are: - Agree - Disagree - Informative - Optimistic These are on another forum I use (non-weather) and make the forum more interactive without necessarily having to reply. Keep up the good work!

It’s only out to T+84 - hold your horses!!!!

Hi mate, still learning so a quick question - what is the significance, in practical terms, of Siberian lobe of the PV? Many thanks

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