Paul_1978
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Everything posted by Paul_1978
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I found it from following "@weathertrending" on Twitter
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Below is a link to a blog from John Hammond which talks about recent model volatility and also a bit on the stratosphere. Relevant for this thread and no doubt of interest: https://weathertrending.com/2017/11/17/horizon-battleground-britain/amp/
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And that would be a good thing @Interitus?
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What do you know that we don't?
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That's an old chart - there will be a new one out shortly. Nevertheless, there is only one rogue run going positive - the rest are negative.
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I was just going to say the same - it's 14th November - we aren't even in winter yet! Easy to forget. Even 2010's snow didn't occur til the 27th and even that was considered early.
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Afraid of what?? Edit, yes 955mb is pretty deep!
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Indeed. The Atlantic is clearly not making inroads at T+111 when compared to the 06z. HP over the UK holding firmer.
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Yes, but for context he is quoting NASA data and merely suggesting it could be a matter of time before the strat and the trop couple. Summer Sun mentioned it here: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88772-stratosphere-temperature-watch-201718/?do=findComment&comment=3649287
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Hmmm not strictly true that Jvenge. One rogue AO member is positive - the rest are very much in negative territory. As regards NAO lots of scatter, but still generally mainly remaining in negative territory.
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Well for me it's miles better than the 00z! Look at the size of the Greenland High for a start. We've been waiting for a proper GH for years and now we've got one. Just need things to slot into place, which is what half the fun is all about.
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Hi Nick, not a post goes by where you don't mention a shortwave . I know you've probably been asked this before, but could you provide a brief explanation as to what a shortwave is and why these are often problematic? (Problematic at seemingly scuppering our opportunities of cold!) And is there ever a situation where a shortwave is a good thing? (For coldies?)
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If anyone wants to know what the "3.4 region" is..... https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php
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Never heard of the CMC model!
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It's a bit early to be talking about breakdowns 2 weeks away.
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You're a glass half empty chap CC, seems to be always doom and gloom from you. Anyway, are you now changing your thoughts having seen the 00z runs, of which the GFS and ECM are very good and a world away from the 18z's.
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Agreed. 12z couldn't be any more different to the 06z. Puzzling but interesting..... Puts everyone on tenterhooks this model watching doesn't it!
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To be honest I read Tamara's last post on Tuesday and I couldn't make head nor tail of it so I couldn't comment on that! However a negative AO, negative NAO, easterly QBO all being in place, for me, bodes well. And not looking too far ahead is good for one's sanity. I don't see any reason to be too despondent - we're seeing great charts at the moment and I'm enjoying the output.
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It doesn't need to deliver right now though Nick? For me it's about getting the building blocks in place for late Nov/early Dec, which is certainly what's happening.
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Very good run up to the end of high res. We're just seeing variations on a theme and we have a big fat Greenland High developing. Not worried about anything that happens after T+240.
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Latest AO forecast has just come out....... Attached yesterday's and today's. If that's still not going down I don't know what is.
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I'd "Like" this if I knew what it meant!
