Paul_1978

Must be just me then - I thought this afternoons runs were pretty good! We've had a lot lot worse!

Your glass is always half empty!

You would think so! But the op output is frustratingly not playing ball yet!

What do you make of the background signals etc in the tweets from Ventrice, Cohen, Bastardi et al?

Exactly - all looking very good until low res kicks in which is "just for fun" as they say - the all important low res is all that matter and it generally looks pretty good to me.

I'm erring on the side of caution for now. These charts might be a distant memory in the morning. Once bitten twice shy and all that :-(

Any update on the MJO situation today? There are not many straws to clutch at the moment, so I'm trying to keep an eye on this with interest.

What is "Scrussion" and "Sceuro" please? I never see these terms mentioned anywhere other than on this forum!

Well based on Ian's update, it might be just me but I can think of worse places for HP to be than west of the U.K. This winter's not over by a long stretch, and there is bound to be some eyebrows raised (in terms of cold weather) over the next few weeks I'm sure.

Loads of difference!

That's way out at T+264, and the fact it is completely different to the 00z run, I wouldn't worry too much

It's "FI"

Not sure about that Gav - there are some quite meaty looking lows for Christmas Eve on both the GFS and ECM 00z's.

Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit. But overall I can't argue with your summary.

We *may* end the year on a calm note with light southerly winds.

Again, lots of "positives" and "negatives" in the last two pages alone. Confused.com

Why can't we have it where we get "zonality", but the block holds = "zonality" sliding under the block. Then we get the best of both worlds (but with a potentially snowy result).

Falls in with Ian's message from earlier - mobility in a week or so (reflected in output), but possibly (hopefully) only temporary. No worries from me.... but as always it's only one run.

384 this, 384 that.... Whatever's showing at 384...it ain't gonna happen.

You dont have to wait for Countryfile - Weather For The Week is on everyday now ;-)

So to understand this correctly, the "Control" is the raw run that has no nuances added to it (like the ensemble runs would)? And if so what is the "Operational"?

You'll be chuffed to bits with that

Indeed. And how many time does @fergieweathertell us that individual inspection of the postage stamps is absolutely essential?

First of all, I hope I have posted this in the right area. I work in Business Continuity and I have only been working in this area for a few months. Of course, many business continuity issues are caused as a result of weather. We have signed up to the appropriate alerts, eg Met Office, Environment Agency etc, as well as alerts for our city (run by the council) for things such as disruption due major road closures, fires etc. The query is what is the best way to disseminate these warning down to staff throughout the organisation. We could send a text to everyone, or an email, or place on the intranet. Staff will be working in the office, or be off site and furthermore, the notification might need to be sent out of hours (eg evenings and weekends). There are lots of things to consider and I wondered if anyone else was working in this area and whether you've gone through the same process.

Interesting stuff. So is this to say that if there is a disconnect between the strat and the trop, that if a SSW does occur, that this will have a negligible effect (due to the aforementioned disconnect)?