Paul_1978

January 1984? At least I think it gave deep/heavy snow over a wide area from a north-westerly? At least it did in Bradford - I remember it being very deep indeed.

So which version of the GFS should we put credence in? The normal op or the Para? Does anyone know?

Not at T+384 it won't.

Well well.....interesting GFS run. First time for a while we've not seen the HP get bulldozed out of the way. 6z awaited with interest!

Many thanks for that - didn't realise. Interesting stuff.

Deary me Mr Ventrice... a T+360 chart hardly worth the paper it's written on.

It was there on the 6z too, but not a "closed off" high then.

I make 10 AO members here, with 6 negative and 4 positive by the end of the graph.

I'd say that means it "possibly" rules out a block ;-) On the other hand, if there is a block in place and low pressure systems start to move in across the south, then we all know what that means....... Easterly. So if there is indeed a block in place, it would be nice to see the jet continuing to dig south and into the Med. As long as we keep heights to the north..... Let's get this milder spell out of the way, then get HP back on the scene and see where we go from there - it could be good, it could be indifferent, who knows, but it will sure be interesting to see it unfold.

Don't forget, today Met Office update STILL shows cold weather returning later in Dec. I feel we need to just get through this milder spell and keep our eye on the models for a colder spell returning.

Been coming on here for years and never heard of CANSIPS!

Well well..... South Westerlies at T+201 becomes Westerly/North Westerly by T+225, and a sinking low and Easterly by T+276 and the Atlantic starting to look blocked again. Perhaps today hasn't been so bad after all?

Reverse psychology @MattHugo - Love it ;-)

Yes, this was no slight at SummerSun, but a query about the Tweeter. Totally agree, but some people will do anything to get a "bite". Anyway..........back to the models............ It looks like a short period of "less cold" weather may be likely looking at the output, but the signs appear to be good for an improved second half of December (if you like cold weather).

Is he trolling?

Show me the last 240 chart that verified and you might have something.

With all this cold weather around, and the potential for it to become colder in the next few weeks, we could do with a bit of precipitation to give us the snow that a lot of us want!

Can't watch it.... His style grates a bit too much for me.

Indeed. After Sunday's GFS 0z, some people were proclaiming the return of South Westerlies by Monday 4th Dec. Fast forward 24 hours, and Monday 4th Dec currently shows HP remaining in place, and by Weds 7th Dec, HP still in situ.. The Atlantic certainly ain't getting through. As winter officially starts this week, then let's hope we can see some of the white stuff in the not too distant future. We've certainly been spoiled with the output so this autumn.... yes autumn!

Looking in the "reliable" 7 day time frame, it looks like a week of settled weather dominated by HP. Any Atlantic influence (however lengthy or brief) is AT LEAST 8 days away - which is outside the reliable. For me, over the next few days, I'm going to keep my eye on a week on Monday (5th Dec) and it will be interesting to see if these south westerlies come into the reliable time frame... we shall see. I suspect due to model volatility they won't.

Yes but they're T+372 and 384. We've been seeing brilliant 384 charts for weeks and they never happen. This isn't worth worrying about.

Well by T+171, it's more Northerly and lest North-Westerly than the 0z. Much sharper ridging in the Atlantic.

Which high pressure are you referring to? Surely we don't want the HP in the North Sea to sink? That would be indicative of the jet then riding over the top?

A strong jet?