Paul_1978

Right when it starts to matter...

I was expecting a horror show when I read that. But in summary (GFS): - high pressure over the UK for pretty much the whole run. - Atlantic never gets going. - Polar Vortex never forms. So not sure what you saw?

Meanwhile, latest AO and NAO forecasts suggest they will remain firmly negative into the first week of November, with suggestions that these will remain negative beyond. Which can only be a good thing if it's cold you're after.

Interesting chart, but it's for 5th November (T+384). How reliable are these charts at such ranges?

Just looking through Dr Butler's tweets following @knocker's post above, and noticed this from 1 day ago. And AO still looking to stay negative until at least 1st Nov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml So many confusing signals - I guess that's why we all find it so interesting!

Hmm, not that good then (if you're a coldie). On the plus side, it's only 19th October. Doesn't seem 2 minutes since someone posted that AO was "rising slightly, before tanking negative again". Having said that, most members look to be staying in the negative area up until 1st Nov. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml *** EDIT - I just realised I was looking at NAO not AO *** AO is here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Wow, ECM and GFS couldn't be more different if they tried. ECM keeping the Easerly type component, and GFS bringing the Atlantic back. FI as early at T+120 based on the overnight output

Interesting, thank you very much. :-)

How accurate are NAO forecasts at that range though? November being a couple of weeks away yet...

One thing for certain is the Jet Stream is currently not really raging, nor is it forecast to. It seems to be a relatively weak and meandering affair and only on Tuesday/Weds next week (18th/19th Oct) is the Jet Stream going through the UK before it breaks up and dissipates by the 20th. By Monday (24th Oct) the Jet Stream attempts to power through the UK again, however it starts to significantly buckle so by Thursday we get the mid-Atlantic block established. That's my assessment anyway - the point being, at no point in the Jet Stream forecast up until near the end of the month, do we appear to have a raging west to east jet, which would appear to mean no Atlantic onslaught on the horizon.

Whatever happens, I'm not looking forward to the old "winter clichés" rolling out, eg: "Close but no cigar" "...at this juncture..." "It's a long way back to cold from there". "It's Christmas, there's missing balloon data". "It looks like the Atlantic is coming back in" (accompanied by a T+384 chart). [Read the same for people being overly confident with a cold chart at T+384] "Will it snow in Carlisle?" "Let's wait for the ensembles" "Look at this from the NAVGEM" Updated the post to add suggestions from other posters - many thanks!! More runs needed! It's all still to play for. Cold is locked in for a good while. GEM is a peach! Waiting for the GFS to smell the coffee. Negative tilt Pesky warm sector! CFS is great at T+5000 GFS 6z is always the warmest run of the four One for the shredder GFS v UKMO v ECM - I know which one I'm backing! The 18z has been down the pub again! Watch for the pesky shortwave! Back on topic please! That chart is full of potential!

Definition from TWO: "El Nino can sometimes bring warmer winters to Europe and the UK, and La Nina will usually bring colder winters, but to make it clear, both events can bring extreme weather to many areas. It is just that the effects locally are reversed, depending on location."

Are you able to furnish us with the details Ian?

Ah the old ECM 240. If I had £1 for everytime a 240 chart had been dissected on here.....

Agreed - what a GFS run this morning! If only it was Dec/Jan/Feb - this place would be in meltdown - northern blocking and then LP tracking to the south in the latter stages.

Had a few rumbles and one decent thundercrack at around 05.20 this morning. Kids slept through it, but me and the wife didn't!

When are these figures due?

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/unprecedented-disruption-atmospheres-pacemaker-foretells-wet-winter-europe Interesting paragraph in the article: ....there's a strong statistical suggestion that the QBO influences the North Atlantic Oscillation, a pattern of seesawing atmospheric pressures that dominates European weather. When the QBO winds are in a westerly phase, pressure differences over the North Atlantic tend to be more extreme. That strengthens the jet stream and boosts the chances that northern Europe will experience warmer, stormier winters like this past one, which brought floods to the United Kingdom. The expected easterly phase at the end of this year would have given northern Europe a good shot at a colder, drier winter. Instead, the return to westerly winds means that Europeans are more likely to see another stormy winter. "It's not a sure thing that that would be the forecast, but it loads the dice toward those sorts of conditions," says Scott Osprey, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford

Are the anomalies taking the SSW into account yet @knocker, as unless I'm mistaken even the normal models haven't got a full grip on it yet.

Interesting stuff @Interitus. Here is the Met Office report for March 1980: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/4/b/Mar1980.pdf Edit: ooops I see you've already included that link.

Surprising that the SSW is occurring right down (according to Ed on Twitter) and after a busy winter on this thread, there's been no posts for 3 days!

In Lofthouse Gate, Wakefield. There's a couple of cm's at the most at the moment. Still, a pleasant surprise especially as it was absolutely belting it down with rain around midnight.

So an SSW is imminent apparently. Are the models now picking up on this fact, or not yet?

I think people are weary with seeing charts with great synoptics with little or nothing to show for them. Let's hope we can get one or two decent snowfalls before the spring weather kicks in