Theresnoway
-
Posts
180 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Theresnoway
-
-
Frosty. Having been on this forum for a very long time and gained a feel for peoples weather preferences, you actually got me there!
I was thinking well of Frosty’s thrown in the towel, we’re all doomed!
-
1
-
-
Mike Poole There was a period down south between roughly 2000 and 2010 where we had hardly any snow, then came along 2010, 2013 and 2018. So although we won’t get favourable conditions every year, I still believe the right synoptics will come around eventually, even given longer term changes in climate.
-
9
-
-
Stuie Very wise, but occasionally a trend does get picked up on , and come to fruition. Having not been following the models all winter, I probably have more patience and hope than others.
-
2
-
-
Stuie Indeed, on the short ensembles shown, all looks pretty mild. I believe the excitement for cold weather fans comes after this period, which may or may not materialise. Lots of changes to come, but better than the weather being shown in recent days.
-
I’m personally not sure a Red will be issued, impact and certainty would both need to increase to hit that threshold. It may happen somewhere, further north and (or) west, I doubt it for central southern England.
-
1
-
1
-
-
Just now, jy said:
Was too dangerous instructor said I would be in Calais in 22 minutes
-
1
-
-
Main snow looks to be north of the M4 now, now where have I heard that before!
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
Did Weymouth get snow?
I sincerely doubt it, I’m 6 miles north of Poole and it’s all rain here
-
1
-
-
23 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Met Office will have to adjust their warning, there's absolutely no scope for ice down here, let alone snow.
Temperature dropping quickly, let’s see how low it goes!
-
4
-
-
2 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:
Trawling through the last 5 pages of the MOD thread and trying to take an average(!) there is a fairly higher chance of snow for the top half of our region for most of tomorrow, more especially with a bit of elevation and away from the Bristol Channel, followed by another potential event on Thursday - a lot of the models seem to be bringing Thursday event further south than was predicted yesterday.. So I guess north of our region/south midlands could see snow both days. Presume lying snow after tomorrow (if there is any!) would help keep it cold, especially if Thursday’s low stays fairly south! Of course this is a bit IMBY, but Cotswolds east of me and the Chilterns could do very well! Rapidly clearing skies here as the sun is going down, a frost would be good tonight…
It might be IMBY, but I would say a fair assessment based on all the model output. Unfortunately, it’s not IMBY!
-
1
-
-
Expecting rain, hoping for snow! There is still a lot of variations in the models, personally I hope the low struggles more than is modelled against the cold
-
2
-
-
4 minutes ago, camturbo said:
Dont think I will get anything maybe some sleet
FWIW I think you will get snow in your location. Let us know tomorrow if you do!
-
1
-
-
51 minutes ago, snowysouth said:
I never have high expectations since the "it's definitely going to snow" a few years ago and the ppn sat in the channel. Battleground northerlies are a curse here
Word of the day, Marginal (at best!)
-
3
-
-
4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Better on Wednesday
Ah sorry, I thought the first chart was 1am Wednesday?
What time of day is the second chart you posted for?
Thanks
-
1
-
-
23 minutes ago, Nights King said:
I believe tonight into tuesday it will be rain, sleet.
Followed by a weak southerly tracking low on wednesday with temporary accumilations of 1cm in places (mainly hills) follwed by strong low steam rolling in thursday giving us rain.
Temperatures just don't look good enough to me and unless it is heavy and persistent which wednesdays isn't currently then its just going to end up in disapointment.
That’s what my head says too, although my heart says otherwise
15 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Yay sleet!
-
1
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, snowdog said:
Yes. It was around 5/6pm. My husband went for an interview before the snow. He couldn’t believe how quickly it happened. By the time he finished the interview snow was fairly thick on the ground. I remember our children, along with the local kids all rushing out and throwing snowballs. Think it had more or less melted by middle of the following day.
If we do get any snow this week, I expecting a similar situation, not with regards to depth, but melt.
Roll on Wednesday morning and enjoy the twists and turns before then.
-
1
-
-
-
2
-
3
-
-
9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
Hi everyone been out whole day working...what's the latest on this cold spell the kind of blink and you will miss it..im not convinced we will see snow in the south later in the week..the risk seems to be diminishing as we speak..it appears Scotland will do ok!as it will be in the cold longest,the South is more of a cold couple days then swept away by the atlantic..is that a fair assessment on things currently?
If you take the operationals as gospel, then a very fair assessment. The models have definitely wobbled today, that is for sure. But given the difficulty forecasting the current setup, the varying model and ensemble outputs, I won’t be writing snow off in the south off just yet.
Let’s see what the models show in the next 48 hours, I think we’ll have a better idea then.
More concerned than yesterday? Yes! Throwing my toys out of the pram, not yet
.
-
2
-
-
Given the amount of variance we’re seeing with regards to the position of Thursday’s low, within different runs and models, I think using postage stamps as a guide to probability is a better way forward than taking each deterministic as gospel.
-
4
-
-
1 minute ago, Tidal Wave said:
ICON 06z trends a little north for the Wednesday feature:
vs
Probably best to compare charts that relate to the same time.
-
5
-
-
The UK Met going for 60% chance of the low on Thursday / Friday crossing southern areas, with the cold block putting up more resistance than some runs are showing. 20% further north with rain in the south and 20% further south, with the precipitation in north France.
Still all to play for!
Hopeful for a good set of 12zs
-
2
-
-
Looks like end of next week / next weekend could be our best chance of significant snow, but if the lows are too far north we see rain and too far south it misses us. Just the right latitude and Boom
-
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:
I was hoping for better tbh
I wouldn’t be too disappointed, it’s one det run 7 days out. Still all to play for in terms of potential outcomes.
-
2
-
-
Hey!
is there a way to ignore certain users posts via my phone? There are some posters I would really like to use it on.
Thanks
-
2
-
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
johncam I’m not predicting some kind of winter nirvana, but blocks do tend to put up more of a fight than often modelled. So some kind of a middle ground would be most likely IMHO.