Theresnoway
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Posts posted by Theresnoway
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Well the 06z has got to be the most awful run yet if you are looking at it for potential cold and snow (which let's face it most of us on here do).
And to end it all off, we end up with the beginnings of a Bartlett High...ohh well...there's always next winter (JOKE)
Excellent news.
The fact that it is so far out means it stands a very, very small chance of verifying... (But must remember the same stands for when it is showing cold!)
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Any update on the ECM 32? I believe that was due at 11pm...
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this is weird - spot the mistake on this copy of the fax
It is yesterday's fax?
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EDIT - was 5th person to post
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Hi All,
Nothing settling in Poole yet, 3 miles from coast.
But hoping it will when precip intensifies.
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I'm guessing everyone knows already about the Meteox forecast toll for 3 hours ahead?
Does that not just forecast based on the current trajectory?
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Anyone know if the warm sector is further north? further south? on track? as Met Office warnings moved us into the orange which is weird.
For anyone who is confused.
New meto orange warning is for ice!
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Hi,
Does anybody know of any good weather twitter feeds to follow. I am sure I saw someone with a meto forecatsers the other day.
Thanks in advance.
David
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Yet again so near but so far,Snow in Wimborne so presumably snow at Broadstone? ,hope so winterwonderland at work tomorrow if so
Hi,
As above, no snow in Canford Heath! Just sleety rain, defo not settling... Yet!
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Well you are just on the right side of marginal in Wimborne, still has a sleety feel to it in Canford Heath and therefore not settling.
Hopeing the temp will drop a little more.
Going to stay up till about midnight, hope to see settling snow by then...
Dave (Ever the optomist!)
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18z NAE is delaying the PPN slightly compared to the 12z, this to me would suggest that it is predicting the block to be harder to break than first progged, it also fits in my mind with Ice's comment about the 18z GFS not letting the PPN get so far north...
What I cannot figure out is how this will impact me in Poole....
UPDATE... Looking at the 24hr chart on the 18z NAE, there seems to be more leading edge rain than the 12z, awaiting the crucial 30hr
Dave
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Hi,
In Canford Heath it is not as heavy as it was, but still moderate and settling.
Anybody now how long this will last?
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Actually snowing outside now.Hope it isn't a let down again and fizzles out within a minute
Hi Snow,
I am in Canford Heath and it is not snowing, the cloud does seem to be getting darker though.
Fingers crossed we can get a covering!
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Still snowing heavily, as long as it doesn't disappear, it looks like 2-4 hrs of moderate snow for south dorset, maybe some heavy snow as well in that.
Currently still moderate snow here but quite windy. It seems to be falling at approx 2 to 3 cm a hr atm
Looking at the latest Meto Radar (9am), I am hopefull.
There is an area of moderate precipitation moving almost due west along the south coast, lets hope it falls as snow!
If anyone has the netweather radar, maybe they can tell me where the precip is now.
Thanks
Dave
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Paul,
If I were you I would be having a conversation with Rackspace, that new server is not enough!
It is very frustrating to have downtime to the forum on a night like this. Surley it will ultimatley impact your advertising revenue!
Sorry for the tone of my post, just a little frustrated!
Regards
Dave
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nobody has any place names due to heavy traffic on the site i think!
fromey
Maybe for tonight everybody could put their location in each post, would be useful!
Thanks
Dave (Poole)
Edit: and just like that they are back on!
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Well it now seems we have all the models singing from the same hymn sheet. As I stated yesterday evening, as it stands this looks like being a very cold, but dry spell for most.
Hi Solar,
I think the most important thing at the moment is establishing the cold / severe cold air source, precipitation in these situations can not be forecast acuratly until 24-36 hours out. Although the models do not currently prog much precipitation, I guarantee that some areas will see significant precipitation during this cold spell. As some one has already mentioned, any precipitation that does fall is likely to do so as snow.
The longer the cold spell the more probability of snow fall.
I am being carefull not do get dragged along with all the hype, but in terms of what I have seen from the model outputs, this really is unprecedented. More importantly, people who have been watching the models for a lot longer than me also agree.
Looking forward to the next couple of weeks.
Dave
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Some hefty looking showers coming up although it will be sleet again acording to my crystal ball.
Snow for dorset later in week but they don't get north enough to reach north somerset what a joke.
What is the ppn falling as in bristol now anyway?
Hi Mull,
I wish that statement was true, but not according to the Met-Office, what is your source?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/dorchester_forecast_weather.html
Also knowing local conditions I would say unlikely, medium / longer term forecast is looking more promising though. Hopefully we can get this cold pattern really locked over the whole of the uk and then for lows to track in from the South West, stalling over us rather than the Midlands / Wales.
Dave
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Strange thing with the N-W radar, when viewing as UK, the precipitation type is not correct, it seems to be accurate if switching to Euro view. Raining here by the way.
That is a very interesting difference...
If Paul is reading, I would be very interested to hear about why this is different?
Thanks
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Looks like something's bubbled up and is headed my way on that...not that I'll be awake to see it...
It should be here in just over 1/2 an hour, will tell you all about it tomorrow.
Dave
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its lyk snowinggg nowwwww
:unsure:Is it settling?
I have to say the http://www.raintoday.co.uk is looking better, turing to snow as heading towards the coast, not going to bed quiet yet!
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You're right. My sister lives in Telford and she got nothing but rain - she has been on the phone 3 times and is still fuming - said she has watched lamposts for 10 days now for nothing! hahahaha
Well that is it, I have given up all false hope.... Just my bottle of whiskey to keep the comfort (and my wife up stairs!)
Will stay here in hope for another hour or so, may get colder down south!
Dave
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OMG it really has turned sour in the midlands... 1 post in the last 36 minutes!
I am for ever less hopefull!
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I'm here... just to make the numbers up, as I feel our class is being picked on.
No Snow so far, apart from gutter drifts...lol
I hope tonight delivers at least something as the precipitation shown on radar, whilst short lived is better than the dusting I stayed up for the other night.
Here's to a drift as Michael McIntyre Said "you can only wake a woman for two things, a celebrity death, or snow..." can only pray for one of those.
Steve
I would go for the celebrity death! lol
:unsure:
Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Theresnoway
Whilst the signal might be "pretty strong", it does not mean it is right. If the medium range forecast can change at the drop of a hat, then I would not give too much weight to any long range forecast. I think some people fall into the trap of thinking well the models show it, so it must be right. How many times have we seen this not to be the case?
In fact I would go as far to say, I feel more comfortable with them showing warm. Because when a cold outlook is forecasted at long range, it rarely seems to materialise.
I would use the models and trends as guidance, not matter of fact! It may very well, and probably will change and change again.
Plus surely the teleconnection forecasts are just a set of results from a long range model, so what means that these forecasts are going to come to fruition?