Theresnoway
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Posts posted by Theresnoway
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26 minutes ago, Timmytour said:
If anyone needs to know why a hurricane forming in January would leave such a question mark hanging over the validity of the various models' output, it may well be worth having a look at the path the 1938 hurricane took ....
The best guide to what happens after such a phenomenon, may be to look back to what the weather did in January 1938. You can see from the below link that after the anticyclone on the 5th, travelled up the west coast of Irleland, a wet and windy month followed. May be the models that are showing a quicker return the Atlantic domination are onto something?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/j/Jan1938.pdf
Edit: Add link!
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Please can someone link to the model timetables, I cannot seem to find them.
TIA
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I'm no expert but with the Usa getting cold again this will only fire up the jet. I can only see this cold spell ending one way after this happens,Think Ian f summed up my fears earlier today.
You could not be more right.... This cold spell will end only one way, it will get warmer!
I am no expert either. Could you explain why the "USA getting cold again" means the jet will fire up?
Thanks
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- Popular Post
Good evening all,
As someone who has been on this site for 9 years, I would like to share some of the wisdom I have learned. I do hope this will improve your enjoyment of this forum, because at times it can be the most frustrating place in the world, at other times, there is not a better place to learn about weather. But you need to be able to identify what is good and what is not! I hope the below aids you in that process.
1. Just because someone has made lots of posts, that does not mean they know lots. Passed experience has taught me, some of them talk complete rubbish.
2. Learn who the valued contributors are and do not waist too much time reading other posts, you will make much better use of you time.
3. Even if you are a cold weather fan, also follow the thread occasionally in the summer, it will help you understand better who the real unbiased posters are.
4. Accept the fact the majority of posters, no matter how good at reading the models, have a preference for cold weather
5. Understand that if somebody is not a cold,weather fan, they probably demonstrate a warm bias
6. There are few posters who give a truly balanced view, but to name a few.... Nick Sussex, Nick F, Tamarra, and Gibby.
7. Just because someone is confident in what they are saying does not make then right
8. Anything past 5 days when talking about specifics is pure speculation, look how much the Met Office forecast can change, even for day 5
9. Learn who to trust and concentrate on those posts
10. Do not take it too seriously
11. Post charts to help articulate your point
12. If you do not know, do not pretend, say and learn
13. Ever year has buzz words, each one a new, do not get too caught up in these
14. Not everybody sees the world the same way you do! Have empathy!
15. Not every run is correct, the trend is your friend
16. Do not pay too much attention to snow risk or precipitation charts!
17. Whatever people say, the Met Office do know what they are talking about (better then most)
18. Twitter is a great place to follow some knowledgeable people, @MattHugo81 springs to mind
19. Generally people like to look at the period where the models are uncertain, that is half the fun
20. It is only weather, there are more important things in life (although, not many!)
Enjoy, it really is a great forum, if you know what to believe and what to not. If you believe every thing you read, you will, soon become disenchanted!
Hope that helps
David
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Why does this constantly happen?
or is it just me!
ECM + UKMO = awesome cold synoptic = GFS rubbish
ECM + UKMO = watered down synoptic of cold = GFS awesome cold
end result: all watered down and middle ground average?
If you have different modles or even different ensebles showing varying solutions, then middle ground would have to be the form horse (in most circumstances). I have seen this many, many times. I guess because of peoples personel weather preference, sometimes they will choose to go with one of the solutions. But this will often lead to disapointment.
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I'm touching a very large piece of wood at the moment.
What you get up to in your own time is up to you!
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Really????
I thought it looked a bit sleety in Canford Heath!
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Rain today radar showing precip. in your part of the world - please tell me it isn't rain.
Good luck tonight
There is rain some places now, but colder air will feed in from north France later. This is just starting to happen now.
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Looks like turning to sleet/rain late am. Let's make the most of it!.
Yes after about 12-1pm, goes dry and then may be some sleet/rain. But, things may change, could be dry or further flurries instead.
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I love snow because..............................?
It makes me feel warm inside!
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I WIN!!
Yep, well done Paul. Snow over Dartmoor National park! The Princetown contigincy should have snow soon.
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bit harsh to call me a drama queen when the met office are saying 9pm today heavy rain isle of white porstmouth.
Apologies, my remarks were not based on just that one post!
Why are you surprised at rain now when the snow has never been forecast until tomorrow?
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So, if the coastal fringes are penciled in for Amber Warnings, how come we have some light spots of rain in Ferndown at the moment? Doesn't bode well !
That is a bit like saying, the traffics lights are red, so they are going to be red this time tomorrow. Tempretures are forcast to be lower tomorrow morning compared to todays. I agree it may be marginal at times on the coast, but I am expecting to see a good 6 hours of snow before (if) it turns back to sleet / rain. There is still an outside chance it might remain as snow in my mind.
TNW
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Even at T15, there is a slight westward correction on the GFS for precipitation compared to the 12z
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We are always hearing about different GFS runs being more reliable, i.e. bin the 6z, the 0z and 12z has more data etc.... Does anybody compile verification stats comparing the 4 different GFS runs? If so, where can these be found?
On a separate note, I really only known a way of determining FI per each model, using the ensemble graphs and looking for divergence. Is there anyone that plots the operational graph lines from each model on the same graph to see where the model divergence is occurring. i.e. GFS, ECM, UKMO etc... operational 850 temps by day for a specific location? Hope that makes sense.
Thanks in advance
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Latest from Matt Hugo on the 18z
"@MattHugo81: 18z GFS continues to trickle out and this looks another cold in up to and including next weekend"
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But there is a SSW taking place which changes the potential altogether
Not necessarily! As has been said on here several times the models cover the whole atmosphere, so the SSW effect has already been considered in the current output. That is not to says things will not change, they inevitably do.
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WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG
how many times do we have to go thru this. The ssw is modelled in the same run as the topospheric patterns you look at - iits the same bloody model!!
So the model simulates the ssw and its consequences in exactly the same way it creates a greeny high etc etc etc and then the consequences of that etc etc
The only thing of relevance is the closer we get to the actual ssw, the better the data being fed in as the starting point. But you can say that about any data fed into the run.
Would I be right in saying the models may struggle with forecasting the propagation, so once this has actually started happening the model will be using more robust data. Actual data rather than forecast?
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Pretty laughable the difference with some of the ensembles in the longer term
Indeed those GFS short essembles posted above show a 15 degree variation in 850 temps at 168, so all to play for past next week.
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The GFS this morning isn't far off what I referred to last night.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png
Remember I said about the N,ly flow down the N Sea into Germany on the 18Z but if we look at the 0Z the N,ly flow is now reaching into Holland/Belgium. You may wonder why im fixated with these N,lys and the reason for this is because the further N & W the ridge of HP is the better because the N,ly flow will then veer NE then E. Basically the Siberian express will pass through the UK instead of coming to a halt further E.
The ECM at +144 is pretty rubbish compared to the GFS but the UKMO is an improvement and moving more towards the GFS. looking at the other models the ECM seems to be the outlier at the moment but unfortunately that doesn't make it wrong.
And worth remembering that the ECM is curently the best verifying at 6 days, according to the data I saw a couple of days ago. But that can change, especially as the forecasted synoptics are now very different.
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Hi
"when the strat warming starts to feed in" to the trop. Is what I meant.
I am not sure the strat warming has fed in yet, could have but only time will tell. Can take up to four weeks according to the more knowledgeable, but probably half that in reality.
Thanks for the reply.
So are you saying the models are forecasting the stratosphere to warm, but are not making any allowance for impact on the troposphere? Or are you saying the the models are so bad at handling the propagation, the true impact cannot be modelled so far out in the land of low resolution?
David
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The GEFS mean showing a gradual return to tomorrow's uppers (-3c) in 15 days time, after a relatively mild 6-7 days.
The OP is a cooler option in FI, but other members also hinting at it's trend:
So a settled period coming up with indications that the current synoptics are weakening, around D8. This I suspect is not due to the SSW and is probably just the ebb and flow of winter. This may of course help, when the strat warming starts to feed in.
The 0z control shows a cleaner Atlantic height's build, and something that looks more possible:
The GEFS mean also, at T300, shows a clear tendency for heights around the UK:
FI starts at around D7-8 and this looks like it will vary on the theme of amplification around the UK, so that is likely to chop and change, placement wise.
The strat signals are remaining strong so things are moving in the right direction for mid Jan onwards.
Hi,
Learning here, an answer to the below would help my understanding better...
What is meant by "when the strat warming starts to feed in"? Surley it is already fed in? Is it not these very models that are forecasting the strat warming?
Thanks
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Still a large strat warming forecast at the 10hPa level.
This actually starts in the higher resolution output which is good to see. Overall for fear of jinxing things I do feel we are seeing a few green shoots here which hopefully will be covered by snow in January!
We'll just have to hope those comments tonight by NOAA hold true and we get a little help from the strat warming as we move into January.
Nick,
Am I right in thinking the lower the HPA, the higher up we are talking about?
Is 850hpa (for example) always the same height? Or is that dictated by pressure patterns?
Tks in advance
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I have a couple of learning questions...
Just read the netweather ensemble guide and it talks about spreads, are these the same as anomalies?
The guide is talking specifically about the GFS, do the other models run ensemble data? If so are the data graphs and postage stamps viewable?
Tks
North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)
in Weather Around The World
Posted
Well, all I can say to that.... Is that I along with most NW forum members, are very envious.