Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Theresnoway

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    180

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Theresnoway

    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

    Warmest GEFS member I've seen so far for this year, Member P30.

    Widespread high teens with spots reaching 20⁰C had this occurred.

    Different members showing some very cold conditions for the same date so we're certainly not out of winter like temperatures just yet!

    Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art, Modern Art

    Could contain: Art, Modern Art, Graphics, Outdoors

    Goes to show how the varying positions of the high (when it starts to finally move away), have a big impact on the weather we’ll experience.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    You seem very reactionary to each individual run of the model, you'll pass out from exhaustion in a week or two if you keep that up!

    Deterministic runs need to be used in conjunction with the ensemble suites to get a clearer idea of the route forward. You wouldn't pick ensemble 15 lets say and hang every thought and hope on that 1 single ensemble run each and every time the model updates, so why do that with the deterministic? It's just another ensemble member. The evolution is going to constantly chop and change as models try to find the solution forward. The ensembles will be the best guidance, individual det runs less so.

    Agree with what you say about being reactionary, going to cause a lot of unnecessary stress! Can the deterministic runs be given any additional weight, or are they exactly the same in terms of accuracy as the ensembles? I always thought deterministic runs had a higher resolution. Thanks 

    • Like 1
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    I’m wondering whether this is a data issue perhaps re observations in that area .

    There is a lack of conventional observational data above 70N.

    You have good satellite coverage there but lack other observations. I don’t think we’d be seeing this stand off if the area of contention was further south.

    I’n shocked that this drama has continued overnight ! 

     

    Do the models use the same observational data? Or do they all have their own independent inputs?

    Thanks

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Morning All,

    Quick question, is the data that sits behind the operational runs for any of the charts available?

    I was thinking about plotting a single variable (eg 850’s) from each run from the same model (offset for time difference), to see where they diverge.

    So essentially I’m just looking for 850’s data for a single location for each run, from any model.

    Thanks

    David

     

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, WindWatcher said:

    I’m really worried for my neighbours house, their house burnt down last summer after a neighbours BBQ got out of hand. The builders despite working 7 days a week haven’t got to the stage the scaffolding can come down. Most of the roof is on but the windows aren’t in upstairs. I hope that scaffolding doesn’t collapse causing even more damage. I might have to set up a camera if is as bad as expected down here.

    26370F83-F863-4958-8E4E-FC8EF2A11019.jpeg

    We’ve got a very similar house with scaffolding one up from us! Also have concerns!

    • Like 2

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    49 minutes ago, warmintim said:

    Most of England is already under an amber warning. I honestly don't know what people want?

    Its about using judgement. In their defence, calling red warnings all the time that turn out not to be needed is more damaging than waiting and seeing what is needed.

    There’s a lot of irritability on here today, my comment related to ‘IF’ a red warning was issued later tomorrow morning .

    I have faith in what the Met-Office are capable of, as it sounds like you do! 

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    GEFS is produced by NOAA-NCEP.

    Their data are available here:

    I would not be surprised though if it were quite a puzzle to get those complex data sorted out.
    It would not be my favourite chore, but perhaps you're a data freak?

     

    Superb, thanks for the link. I’m a wanna be data freak . There must be some kind of automation that could be set up to pull the latest data into a DB. I might just give it a go!

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, offerman said:

    I can understand the short-term excitement as does look pretty good for a lot of us ,but only up until Wednesday, as in the south. 
    thereafter it looks like the Atlantic will prevail as it so often does, it’s just too powerful on these charts. 

    I’m no expert, but having followed this and other forums for over 15 years, generally these cold blocks are underestimated. I would add to that that the further you go out in terms of time, the less reliable the forecast, so whilst it is an outcome, it may not be a likely one.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
×
×
  • Create New...