ukmoose
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Posts posted by ukmoose
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Yep not all that surprising so few have gone above average, in fact what is surprising is so many have gone above 3C given the broad global teleconnections at the moment and the fact that the first 10 days should come in around 0C...however I suppose its the fact that we've not seen many months that have come close to this broad set-up in the N.Hemisphere in the last 2 decades so its hardly surprising given people are so used to months not getting below 3C that many people seem to believe it can't be done.
If I had to make a range of which my update will fall into, I'd put it between 1.5-2.5C right now, will wait for the 12z sutie of models/ensembles though before making up my mind.
I might do the same then!
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It was very cold for the first 8 days, some days were sub zero. I remember seeing all of the lakes freezing up. But after that it was mostly average temperatures
Thanks for that - I just can't remember it at all.
In fact the month of January 09 is a bit of a blur. I am amazed it came in at only 3C - the coldest winter month since when - 97? I certainly don't recall any snowfall for this part of the world. If the first week or so was cold, the rest of the month must have been pretty unremarkable with just a steady rise in the CET but nothing exceptional.
Hard to believe - or was it one of those months where the CET was affected by lower temperatures in the northern part of the CET much more so than the southern part?
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15 3.4-C: paul tall
44 3.1-C: Supercell
8 0.1-C: trickydicky
37 0.2C: Optimus Prime
10 1.0C: Polar Gael
42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam
3 1.2C: Snowstorm1
109 1.3C: fozi999
107 1.4C: Norrance
53 1.5C: Gavin P
57 1.6C: snowlover2009
119 1.6C: Mr Maunder
11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm
67 1.8C: Roger J Smith
112 1.8C: Polar Side
9 1.9C: alza
71 1.9C: Snowyowl9
72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST
47 2.0C: AderynCoch
49 2.0C: casparjack
45 2.1C: Iceni
56 2.1C: V for Very Cold
117 2.1C: Great Plum
63 2.2C: vrtualsphere
101 2.2C: Cal
65 2.3C: damianslaw
38 2.4C: sufc
103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006
92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection
106 2.5C: artic fox
114 2.5C: Don
126 2.5C: Snowman0697
39 2.6C: kold weather
51 2.6C: pjb120
60 2.7C: snowmaiden
80 2.7C: adamjones416
102 2.7C: Tonyh
125 2.7C: Thundery wintry showers
58 2.8C: Magamoonflake
124 2.8C: reef
6 2.9C: mike Meehan
48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower
95 2.9C: mk13
78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
90 3.0C: davehsug
99 3.0C: ned
31 3.1C: Paul T
35 3.1C: izi
73 3.1C: The watcher
88 3.2C: TomSE20
118 3.2C: ukmoose
7 3.3C: Koppite
113 3.3C: Jack Wales
121 3.3C: DR Hosking
46 3.4C: Anti-Mild
59 3.4C: SteveB
69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW
14 3.5C: BARRY
55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister
77 3.5C: The PIT
2 3.6C: mark bayley
115 3.6C: lostobsessed
1 3.7C: summer blizzard
19 3.8C: Mr Data
22 3.8C: Pete Tattum
41 3.8C: shuggee
50 3.8C: high ground birmingham
52 3.9C: Paul Sherman
23 4.0C: fozfoster
123 4.0C: rikki
25 4.1C: osmposm
24 4.4C: Milhouse
13 4.5C: mullender83
12 4.9C: Paranoid
5 5.6C: James M
27 8.0C: Craig Evans
Only 5 guesses above the January average so far. Several revisions downwards in the list above.
Can we really get a sub 3 month after all these years? I guess it's on the cards the way things stand...
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At the moment it is looking as though areas just inland from the coast are going to catch a few showers, some possibly heavy. It looks like the kind of set up that restricts snow to these regions - further inland (beyond 20 to 30 miles) probably dry and clear. Then see what happens in to next week.
I agree that the good thing is that the cold is setting in at last from today and may allow things to become interesting sometime next week.
But hey, cold and frosty is not bad is it?
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15 3.4-C: paul tall
44 3.1-C: Supercell
8 0.1-C: trickydicky
37 0.2C: Optimus Prime
10 1.0C: Polar Gael
42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam
3 1.2C: Snowstorm1
109 1.3C: fozi999
107 1.4C: Norrance
53 1.5C: Gavin P
57 1.6C: snowlover2009
119 1.6C: Mr Maunder
11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm
67 1.8C: Roger J Smith
112 1.8C: Polar Side
9 1.9C: alza
71 1.9C: Snowyowl9
72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST
47 2.0C: AderynCoch
49 2.0C: casparjack
45 2.1C: Iceni
56 2.1C: V for Very Cold
117 2.1C: Great Plum
63 2.2C: vrtualsphere
101 2.2C: Cal
65 2.3C: damianslaw
38 2.4C: sufc
103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006
92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection
106 2.5C: artic fox
114 2.5C: Don
39 2.6C: kold weather
51 2.6C: pjb120
60 2.7C: snowmaiden
80 2.7C: adamjones416
102 2.7C: Tonyh
58 2.8C: Magamoonflake
6 2.9C: mike Meehan
48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower
95 2.9C: mk13
78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
90 3.0C: davehsug
99 3.0C: ned
31 3.1C: Paul T
35 3.1C: izi
73 3.1C: The watcher
28 3.2C: Snowman0697
88 3.2C: TomSE20
118 3.2C: ukmoose
7 3.3C: Koppite
113 3.3C: Jack Wales
16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers
46 3.4C: Anti-Mild
59 3.4C: SteveB
69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW
14 3.5C: BARRY
55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister
77 3.5C: The PIT
2 3.6C: mark bayley
115 3.6C: lostobsessed
1 3.7C: summer blizzard
19 3.8C: Mr Data
22 3.8C: Pete Tattum
41 3.8C: shuggee
50 3.8C: high ground birmingham
52 3.9C: Paul Sherman
23 4.0C: fozfoster
25 4.1C: osmposm
24 4.4C: Milhouse
13 4.5C: mullender83
12 4.9C: Paranoid
5 5.6C: James M
27 8.0C: Craig Evans
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15 3.4-C: paul tall
44 3.1-C: Supercell
8 0.1-C: trickydicky
37 0.2C: Optimus Prime
10 1.0C: Polar Gael
42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam
3 1.2C: Snowstorm1
109 1.3C: fozi999
107 1.4C: Norrance
53 1.5C: Gavin P
57 1.6C: snowlover2009
11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm
67 1.8C: Roger J Smith
112 1.8C: Polar Side
9 1.9C: alza
71 1.9C: Snowyowl9
72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST
47 2.0C: AderynCoch
49 2.0C: casparjack
45 2.1C: Iceni
56 2.1C: V for Very Cold
117 2.1C: Great Plum
63 2.2C: vrtualsphere
101 2.2C: Cal
65 2.3C: damianslaw
38 2.4C: sufc
103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006
92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection
106 2.5C: artic fox
114 2.5C: Don
39 2.6C: kold weather
51 2.6C: pjb120
60 2.7C: snowmaiden
80 2.7C: adamjones416
102 2.7C: Tonyh
58 2.8C: Magamoonflake
6 2.9C: mike Meehan
48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower
95 2.9C: mk13
78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
90 3.0C: davehsug
99 3.0C: ned
31 3.1C: Paul T
35 3.1C: izi
73 3.1C: The watcher
28 3.2C: Snowman0697
88 3.2C: TomSE20
118 3.2C: ukmoose
7 3.3C: Koppite
113 3.3C: Jack Wales
16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers
46 3.4C: Anti-Mild
59 3.4C: SteveB
69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW
14 3.5C: BARRY
55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister
77 3.5C: The PIT
2 3.6C: mark bayley
115 3.6C: lostobsessed
1 3.7C: summer blizzard
19 3.8C: Mr Data
22 3.8C: Pete Tattum
41 3.8C: shuggee
50 3.8C: high ground birmingham
52 3.9C: Paul Sherman
23 4.0C: fozfoster
25 4.1C: osmposm
24 4.4C: Milhouse
13 4.5C: mullender83
12 4.9C: Paranoid
5 5.6C: James M
27 8.0C: Craig Evans
Here is the up to date and revised CET list.
72 entries so far. I think the record is over 100? Maybe wrong.
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So far the average C.E.T prediction is 2.9c which is 1.3c below average. (Would be 2.8c (-1.4c) without Craig's 8c guess) When was the last time we had a sub 3c month or a winter month more than 1.5c below average? Certainly looks a cold for the first half of January!
January 2009 was 3C (which is colder than I remember I must admit. Can't think of any particularly cold weather for January at all though clearly I am wrong.) Before that, we have to go back to 1997 to find a January CET below 3C (2.5C).
Then we have to go back another 10 years to January 1987 to find a Jan CET below 3C (0.8C).
So only two Januaries recording a CET of below 3 since 1987.
Five Januaries (2002, 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008) in the noughties have recorded a CET of more than 5C.
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15 3.4-C: paul tall
44 3.1-C: Supercell
8 0.1-C: trickydicky
37 0.2C: Optimus Prime
10 1.0C: Polar Gael
42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam
3 1.2C: Snowstorm1
53 1.5C: Gavin P
57 1.6C: snowlover2009
11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm
67 1.8C: Roger J Smith
9 1.9C: alza
71 1.9C: Snowyowl9
72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST
47 2.0C: AderynCoch
49 2.0C: casparjack
45 2.1C: Iceni
56 2.1C: V for Very Cold
63 2.2C: vrtualsphere
65 2.3C: damianslaw
38 2.4C: sufc
92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection
39 2.6C: kold weather
51 2.6C: pjb120
60 2.7C: snowmaiden
80 2.7C: adamjones416
58 2.8C: Magamoonflake
6 2.9C: mike Meehan
48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower
78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
90 3.0C: davehsug
31 3.1C: Paul T
35 3.1C: izi
73 3.1C: The watcher
28 3.2C: Snowman0697
88 3.2C: TomSE20
7 3.3C: Koppite
16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers
46 3.4C: Anti-Mild
59 3.4C: SteveB
69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW
14 3.5C: BARRY
55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister
77 3.5C: The PIT
2 3.6C: mark bayley
1 3.7C: summer blizzard
19 3.8C: Mr Data
22 3.8C: Pete Tattum
41 3.8C: shuggee
50 3.8C: high ground birmingham
52 3.9C: Paul Sherman
23 4.0C: fozfoster
25 4.1C: osmposm
91 4.2C: ukmoose
24 4.4C: Milhouse
13 4.5C: mullender83
12 4.9C: Paranoid
5 5.6C: James M
27 8.0C: Craig Evans
There you go. Discounting Craig's guess, nothing higher than 5.6C.
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15 3.4-C: paul tall
44 3.1-C: Supercell
8 0.1-C: trickydicky
37 0.2C: Optimus Prime
10 1.0C: Polar Gael
42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam
3 1.2C: Snowstorm1
53 1.5C: Gavin P
57 1.6C: snowlover2009
11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm
67 1.8C: Roger J Smith
9 1.9C: alza
71 1.9C: Snowyowl9
72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST
47 2.0C: AderynCoch
49 2.0C: casparjack
45 2.1C: Iceni
56 2.1C: V for Very Cold
63 2.2C: vrtualsphere
65 2.3C: damianslaw
38 2.4C: sufc
39 2.6C: kold weather
51 2.6C: pjb120
60 2.7C: snowmaiden
80 2.7C: adamjones416
58 2.8C: Magamoonflake
6 2.9C: mike Meehan
48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower
78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
90 3.0C: davehsug
31 3.1C: Paul T
35 3.1C: izi
73 3.1C: The watcher
28 3.2C: Snowman0697
88 3.2C: TomSE20
7 3.3C: Koppite
16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers
46 3.4C: Anti-Mild
59 3.4C: SteveB
69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW
14 3.5C: BARRY
55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister
77 3.5C: The PIT
2 3.6C: mark bayley
1 3.7C: summer blizzard
19 3.8C: Mr Data
22 3.8C: Pete Tattum
41 3.8C: shuggee
50 3.8C: high ground birmingham
52 3.9C: Paul Sherman
23 4.0C: fozfoster
25 4.1C: osmposm
91 4.2C: ukmoose
24 4.4C: Milhouse
13 4.5C: mullender83
12 4.9C: Paranoid
5 5.6C: James M
27 8.0C: Craig Evans
Includes the latest guesses.
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Historical I know as it refers to yesterday and the day before, but what does anyone think about the GFS programming of 'the' low which turned out to be much farther west and north than the other models suggested but dare I say it, was nearer the mark in the end?
Just a thought...
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Last update for tonight
15 3.4-C: paul tall
44 3.1-C: Supercell
8 0.1-C: trickydicky
37 0.2C: Optimus Prime
10 1.0C: Polar Gael
42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam
3 1.2C: Snowstorm1
53 1.5C: Gavin P
57 1.6C: snowlover2009
11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm
67 1.8C: Roger J Smith
9 1.9C: alza
71 1.9C: Snowyowl9
72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST
47 2.0C: AderynCoch
49 2.0C: casparjack
45 2.1C: Iceni
56 2.1C: V for Very Cold
63 2.2C: vrtualsphere
65 2.3C: damianslaw
38 2.4C: sufc
39 2.6C: kold weather
51 2.6C: pjb120
60 2.7C: snowmaiden
80 2.7C: adamjones416
58 2.8C: Magamoonflake
6 2.9C: mike Meehan
48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower
78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
31 3.1C: Paul T
35 3.1C: izi
73 3.1C: The watcher
28 3.2C: Snowman0697
7 3.3C: Koppite
16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers
46 3.4C: Anti-Mild
59 3.4C: SteveB
69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW
14 3.5C: BARRY
55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister
77 3.5C: The PIT
2 3.6C: mark bayley
1 3.7C: summer blizzard
19 3.8C: Mr Data
22 3.8C: Pete Tattum
41 3.8C: shuggee
50 3.8C: high ground birmingham
52 3.9C: Paul Sherman
23 4.0C: fozfoster
25 4.1C: osmposm
24 4.4C: Milhouse
13 4.5C: mullender83
12 4.9C: Paranoid
5 5.6C: James M
27 8.0C: Craig Evans
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The list so far. Three people going for below zero (clearly too much cognac in the Christmas pud).
11 going for below 2 C and 12 more below 3C hmmm Must have been strong sherry in the trifle.
I just wonder of we are all getting a bit carried away with la la land projections in the models...?
15 3.4-C: paul tall
44 3.1-C: Supercell
8 0.1-C: trickydicky
37 0.2C: Optimus Prime
10 1.0C: Polar Gael
42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam
3 1.2C: Snowstorm1
53 1.5C: Gavin P
57 1.6C: snowlover2009
11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm
67 1.8C: Roger J Smith
9 1.9C: alza
71 1.9C: Snowyowl9
72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST
47 2.0C: AderynCoch
49 2.0C: casparjack
45 2.1C: Iceni
56 2.1C: V for Very Cold
63 2.2C: vrtualsphere
65 2.3C: damianslaw
38 2.4C: sufc
39 2.6C: kold weather
51 2.6C: pjb120
60 2.7C: snowmaiden
58 2.8C: Magamoonflake
6 2.9C: mike Meehan
48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower
31 3.1C: Paul T
35 3.1C: izi
73 3.1C: The watcher
28 3.2C: Snowman0697
7 3.3C: Koppite
16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers
46 3.4C: Anti-Mild
59 3.4C: SteveB
69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW
14 3.5C: BARRY
55 3.5C: Duncan McAllister
2 3.6C: mark bayley
29 3.6C: adamjones416
1 3.7C: summer blizzard
19 3.8C: Mr Data
22 3.8C: Pete Tattum
41 3.8C: shuggee
50 3.8C: high ground birmingham
52 3.9C: Paul Sherman
23 4.0C: fozfoster
25 4.1C: osmposm
24 4.4C: Milhouse
13 4.5C: mullender83
12 4.9C: Paranoid
5 5.6C: James M
27 8.0C: Craig Evans
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The low has done/is doing and I think will do exactly what is was always predicted to do. Nowhere in this region was predicted any snow (apart from a little sleetiness in the north of the region)before late this week from this system - irrespective of recent model oscillation around minor mesoscale details. As much I am hardly enthralled about the rain, I am certainly not disappointed about the current 24hrs or so as there was nothing but rain to expect anyway. Even in your locale further north than me, little if anything more was suggested from the beginning.
As for sustained spells, on a less IMBY basis - the spell this December (and counting) has been quite significant. On a totally IMBY basis I too have been rather disappointed in terms of actual snowfall so far, but taking even a larger regional picture there have been areas, very close by in fact, that have seen very large snowfalls which stayed for up to a week until just before xmas.
But as far as heavy snow expectations for the main part of this week - there never were any.
A couple of things - the low has not been easy to predict as you know with the GFS predicting it further north and the other models further south. It has not done 'as predicted' because none of the models could quite get it right even as late as last night when no-one knew where the front would finish. A very difficult set up to call.
There have been quite a lot of suggestions for snow from Wednesday onwards actually over recent days - although too far ahead to take seriously admittedly.
Actually heavy snow was predicted by the BBC last night and again this morning for this part of the region even if it was then forecast for rain tomorrow.
We have had snow here - still a little around in fact in sheltered spots. Asd usual, the north has done better for sustained cold but that's what we would normally expect.
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The first 50 posts for January CET guesses. Will update the rest later.
15 3.4-C: paul tall
44 3.1-C: Supercell
8 0.1-C: trickydicky
37 0.2C: Optimus Prime
10 1.0C: Polar Gael
42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam
3 1.2C: Snowstorm1
11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm
9 1.9C: alza
47 2.0C: AderynCoch
49 2.0C: casparjack
45 2.1C: Iceni
38 2.4C: sufc
39 2.6C: kold weather
6 2.9C: mike Meehan
48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower
31 3.1C: Paul T
35 3.1C: izi
28 3.2C: Snowman0697
4 3.3C: snowlover2009
7 3.3C: Koppite
16 3.4C: Thundery wintry showers
46 3.4C: Anti-Mild
14 3.5C: BARRY
34 3.5C: Gavin P
2 3.6C: mark bayley
29 3.6C: adamjones416
1 3.7C: summer blizzard
19 3.8C: Mr Data
22 3.8C: Pete Tattum
41 3.8C: shuggee
50 3.8C: high ground birmingham
23 4.0C: fozfoster
25 4.1C: osmposm
26 4.2C: SteveB
24 4.4C: Milhouse
13 4.5C: mullender83
12 4.9C: Paranoid
5 5.6C: James M
27 8.0C: Craig Evans
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Some of these predictions look a little on the low side to me.
I will post the entries later on.
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The low that was so troublesome to predict has had the last laugh and has succeeded in doing what most of us hoped it wouldn't.
Nothing but rain for the whole of this region as it edged further north than most expected and has stalled a little it seems preventing the colder air from digging south east. Could well rain for the next 24 hours though not necessarily very heavy at any stage. At least it's cold rain and not the warm mush we usually get.
The charts for the weekend, let alone Monday, whilst looking good, are a long, long way off and should not be taken for granted. This current low has just proved how difficult it is for us to get sustained spells of cold even when things look extremely favourable.
A disappointing last 24 hours for cold lovers I would say, though not totally unexpected. Anything could happen over the next few days but the spells of heavy snow that were a possibility a day or so ago have receded, at least for the time being.
Patience required as there is still a chance for something better in a few days time.
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Far south now looking quite a bit milder it has to be said, near coast temps now upto 6-8C generally, whilst further north temps are a little lower between 3-4C, then further north again in East Anglia temps are still very cold indeed, quite a few places in the western portion of the region and around the wash that are in the coldspot so to speak, with temps still decently below 0C.
So quite a big constrast in temps in this region, from 8C to -3C!
That's a very impressive temperature range for a relatively small area. Not often we get that. Probably shows how difficult it is proving for the milder weather to head northwards. Still white over here but not as 'crisp'. Not keen on getting the 8C from Brighton!
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Of cours even though it is looking like its going to become less cold Ukmoose, its still looking close to average even right at the south coast, and obviously in the north it stays cold!
Yes Kold, I agree it's not likely to be overly mild. It's just not going to be as lovely as it has been. The wonderful Christmas card scene will gently melt away. (Maybe next week...) Does look like holding on in the north though as you say.
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Postman just gone down out side,did a little pirouette and crashed to the ground with all the finesse of a brick
(he got up laughing though,asked if he was ok,"yea im fine thats the third time this morning",thats the spirit mr postie
Absolutely! Did the same thing myself night before last. Two steps out the door and wallop. Wife and daughter still laughing about it. Who cares about the sore elbow!
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Same here up the road in MK, but there wasn't alot of Christmas cheer in the ASDA Wal Mart first thing this morning
miserable people were all very bah humbug !Oh dear - their loss, not yours!
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It is apparent (sadly) that the milder air is not too far away from this area now but it is quite hard to believe looking out of the window.
Thick frost covering everything still with fog reforming in the last couple of hours (milder weather approaching?) but still of the freezing variety.
Looks a picture with snow on the ground too. If only we could bottle this for Christmas Day!
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It's so beautiful here this morning. Lying snow, hoar frost on the trees, sunshine just picking out the details through the lingering frozen mist - a real Christmas card scene.
Really lifts the spirits. Can't imagine why anyone would want it to warm up myself.
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I am a complete novice at the weather but my way of thinking is that we are on the same latitude as canada and the only
thing keeping us warm is the jet stream and the fact we are an island. If the jetstream is not there or goes south ,as it appears
to have done, we are going to get cold. I know its not as simple as this but its the way i am thinking at the moment.
The jet stream moving south is a big plus for us and helps to allow cold air from the poles to move southwards.
Unfortunately (if you like severe cold) it is also the Gulf stream that keeps us so warm for our northerly latitude. A warm current originating in the Gulf of Mexico and forced our way all across the Atlantic to our shores. That never moves and is our 'warm blanket and always modifies and cold temperatures we do get.
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UKMO 12 z fax's
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif
Actually might get some decent snowfall here at last from that, more in line GFS 12z
xmas day, increased blocking
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif
00z fax for xmas day.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif
Mark
Teesdale,Co Durham
I'm no expert, but I don't like the look of the fax chart for Christmas Day. HP looming large over Spain and a LP system waiting in the wings. Someone please tell me I"ve not read the chart correctly because that doesn't look pretty to me.
miserable people were all very bah humbug !
December CET
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
No it wouldn't. One month or two months or a whole bunch of months makes no difference to the overall scheme of things does it?