ukmoose
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10.4 please.
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Blimey I think most early punters have opened the Christmas sherry already!
16 1.5-C: TEITS
17 0.1-C: trickydicky
11 0C: wellington boot
4 0.9C: Pete Tattum
12 1.7C: SNOWPLOUGH
5 1.9C: adamjones416
7 1.9C:snowingman
18 2.0C: Polar Gael
15 2.2C: Cal
19 2.2C: memories of 63
10 2.6C: tcc
2 2.7C: nick2702
3 3.2C: TOMB RAIDER LEGEND
13 3.2C: BarnetBlizzard
8 3.4C: pjb120
14 3.6C: The PIT
6 3.9C: JUST BEFORE DAWN
9 4.9C: SteveB
Only 1 guess so far above the 71 - 2000 average of 4.2
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Quite, although I think you'd agree that Dec '81 really was an outlier. The set up on that occasion was a veritible dream. If I remeber rightly HP established over Greenland and a cold front from the north gave 6-9" of snowfall quite widely, in fact I suspect it was close to being a top to toe snow cover for the UK. Air then fell fairly light and the stagnant air, on top of a very cold surface and under clear skies, simply radiated away; areas like Shawbury and Braemar had persistent fog and maxima stayed in negative double digits in some places. Even back then this was an exceptional situation. What we don't get seem to get so much of now are the nights when -5 to -10C is fairly widespread in inland areas. Can't find a reason for that, though my persistent punt is higher humidity generally, and out of this a tendency for more cloud, though this might simply be symptomatic of the fact that we simply have fewer instances of N'ly / E'ly type weather now rather than any real change in air mass characteristics. I suspect it will probably be a bit of both, though more the former than the latter.
Yes indeed - I agree it was very unusual - although the same thing happened again in January 82! (After that though, the rest of the winter turned pretty mild I think into February).
I agree absolutely that it is the minus 5 to minus 10 figures that seem to have completely disappeared in our 'average' winters and like you I find it difficult to pinpoint the reason why but it is probably a combination of the factors you mention.
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You have stuck admirably to your guns John about the prospect for late December/early January for some time now.
Still looking good at the moment and I do hope you are right.
Great read anyway - thanks for all your long range input and for your continuous and sensible moderating voice of reason. A gentleman forecaster from the old school.
Happy Christmas.
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Very gloomy with a hanging mist and drizzle. 8.5 C Still very dark here.
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Just too much cloud trapped inside the HP to allow frosts to form which did seem likely a few days ago.
Fog too could have been a possibility. On that subject, despite the line in 'Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer' I'm not sure I can recall a foggy Christmas Eve at all! Anyone?
Nice thread though Teits - thanks.
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Hard to disagree with the man from Brixton. This winter may become an interesting marker. I know my views on this matter don't always hang happily with those who hanker after extreme cold, but I've been arguing for years now that 3C may well be the realistic minimum for a month in the UK now. Natural variability in the weather will, occasionally, test any hypothesis, save for the most extreme. Philip Eden reckoned a year or so back that we were due a cold winter in the next two, maybe this will be it. If so, and in a warming climate, one could be forgiven for saying..."enjoy".
December still looks like landing around 4C, probably a smidge under. In that case, and after a month of what will have been almost unrelenting cool or cold, to have missed 3C by such a margin shows how hard it is now to get anywhere near an extremely cold month in the UK. I remember as a kid in the early 80s seeing documentaries about the bussing of blacks in the southern states of the USA, and having to shake myself to realise how much the world had (apparently) changed in less than a couple of decades. I have the same sensation now when I look back at temperatures in the 80s. It's only 27 years since the memorable December of 1981, when the Hadley daily mean temperature was -8.5C on the 12th, the day records were broken widely if memory serves me right. That was just one day in a sequence of 18, lasting to the 26th, during which the mean CET rose above 0C on only two days.
Rather puts the current sequence in context. By my reckoning we haven't had single day averaging below 0C yet this month, and at present my rough forward projection can only see one or two dipping just below zero before the month is up.
The man from Brixton is indeed correct I think and I do agree with your musings here SF.
As to why we miss 3C now, I would refer to the post I made yesterday. The night time minima are just nowhere near as low as they used to be. Take December 1981 the month you mention - a month I remember well. If memory serves me correctly, the lowest temperature in my region at the time was -19C some places recorded lower than this even. On several days, the maximum temperature was minus 3 or 4 - lower than many nights we get now. Also, many nights were below -8. It is these sorts of very low minima that help to achieve the sub 3 cet values and we just don't get those any more (for whatever reason). Temperatures as low as this really lower the cet and negate the inevitable warmer days.
I think sub 3 is probably out of range now unless something fairly dramatic hapens to start lowering those night time minima and it is very hard indeed to see where that dramatic change can come from. It would be nice to be wrong.
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Another increase of 0.2C on the Hadley CET. Its now running at 3.6C to the 20th.
Today and tomorrow will be very mild, so we could be north of 4.0C by the update on Tuesday.
It seems a shame how quickly cold weather is negated by mild these days. Ill always remember March 2006, when the mean was around 3C to the 23rd but the very mild last week meant the CET increased by almost 2 degrees by ther end of the month. A sign of the times I think, the mild always seems milder than the cold is cold.
It would be an extreme disappointment not to finish below 4C when the first half has been so far below average. Hopefully the upcoming easterly wont be too cloudy and have some decent cold at the surface.
Indeed, but in reality final CET figure does matter. Part of the problem we have these days is not that cold doesnt occur, it just occurs less frequently and is less potent compared to the mild. My disappointment is that despite 2-3 week cold spells, we struggle to record well below average months like we used too and especially well below average seasons (12 years and counting).With regards to this month, we could well be sitting at a mean of 4.2C by the 22nd. This is despite the first half of the month being the coldest start to winter for 30 years. Even then, if the last 8 days had a mean of 2C, the month would end at 3.5C. So thats another winter-month failing to get sub-3C, despite what would essentially have been 85% cold. If we cant get a true 'cold' month (sub-3C - also 12 years and counting) in that scenario, when are we realistically going to these days?
I have to agree with you reef. I think I have had the very same discussions with SM before and I know we disagree.
Part of the problem is that the night time minima are just not that cold. Minus 1, 2 or 3 (pretty much what we've had at best during the first two weeks of December) is not bone-chillingly cold (minus 5,6,7 and 8 would have cropped up in the past with a similar pattern) and it is these very low night time temperatures that helped to more than offset the mild days that most months do get.
When night time minima only dip a degree or so below freezing, there's just not much leeway and the milder temperatures win out overall meaning the CET is never going to be very low.
In short - nights are are much warmer than they used to be even in a 'cold' spell.
Moose
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12 degrees here yesterday, might be a notch higher today as it's actually quite bright now with some blue sky and quite warm sunshine whereas yesterday was a little duller. Breeze just taking the edge off the temperature.
Nice day- if not at all seasonal. Great for golf!
Moose
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I think my guess at 4.1c might not be too far off!
Perhaps a little too low?
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Brave : having or showing courage, resolution and daring.
There's nothing brave about TEITS posting that chart, he's doing what he said he would throughout the run up to Christmas using the 12z GFS.
Thanks for doing this thread TEITS
.Brave in the sense of showing resolve and determination against the odds knowing Teits' (and others') preference for cold and not wanting to disappoint!!
I could sense his resolve was wavering but he still made the call! Brave I'd say.
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The CET is only going to go upwards after Tuesday I think.
My call of milder by mid month when I posted my CET guess will be a couple of days late but it has certainly arrived.
It's a guessing game of course, but I'd say the second half of December, from Wednesday or Thursday onwards, is likely to average anywhere between 6 and 8. Quite a contrast to what has been, if not exciting or dramatic, at least a seasonal first half of the month.
Recent history points very much to another mild January to follow...Would be very happy to be wrong.
Moose
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Very brave of you to put that chart in Teits.
Not looking great at this distance it has to be said. I hate to see HP in that location at any stage of the winter, let alone Christmas Day!
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Good idea Teits.
I remember Bill Giles being completely caught out by the cold, snowy spell just after Christmas 2000. He forecast very mild weather (and the synoptics clearly showed this) less than a week before the snow arrived.
All to play for yet...
Moose
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Thanks for the updates Jackone.
Encouraging signs so far. I have noticed though that the last handful of seasons (for the French Alps at least) have generally started well or very well even in December, then conditions have gradually declined into January with February faring quite poorly really with mild weather and little new snow (except the highest runs) and quite a lot of rain below 2000 m. There has then been a tendency for conditions to improve markedly in March and April.
The problem with this pattern is, we go in... February!! I am ever hopeful of better conditions for 09 or will recent history repeat?
Moose
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I'm on it :lol:
Well done that man.
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Particular thanks must go of course to Stratos Ferric, who set up this competition in the first place.
And of course to those who set up the score lists in the thread.
Great work yourself, as ever, Jackone. Not a 5 minute job putting that speadsheet together - and very rapid too! Thanks very much.
To be fair I think I just started the formalisation, and you have continued that with interest. I suspect that the competition actually originates with someone like Summer Blizzard and the "what's the CET going to be this month?" type posts that I think he initiated.SF - how good to see you posting again. You have been missed!
Moose
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A coldish start but with much milder incursions as the second half of the month approaches I suspect. Nothing cold enough to get below average but probably not so bad for modern winters so I'll go for 5.3 please. Thanks.
Moose
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Morzine Avoriaz is the only ski resort i have been to. I would certainty hope for better conditions than the ones I had, There is an excellent website www.morznet.com whihc has great webcams and shows the scene across the town of Morzine.
Current Resorts in the list
Courchevel
Chatel
Tignes
Val Thorens
Alpe d'Huez
Dolomites
Wengen
Saalbach
Morzine
Thanks for that Jackone - I'll check out the website. We did go to Morzine last year as well, The weather was beautiful all week with blue sky and sunshine everyday, if a little too warm for the lower slopes. Hardly any snow fell during the week - one light shower - much less than we have just had for the last two hours here in Buckingham in fact!
It would be nice to get a good base down but it's still a little early I guess.
Moose
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Hi Jackone,
Very good of you to do this amongst the myriad of other things you do. - Off to Morzine in Feb so any updates for that area of France will be much appreciated. If you could arrange perfect, waist deep powder before hand and a week of sunshine and low temperatures while we're there - so much the better!
Thanks,
Moose
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I am often surprised by the CET SM, this last month no exception. It's certainly true there were a few cool, even cold days earlier in the month (notably the weekend of the 19th), but generally, night time temperatures were held well up in my part of the CET zone even when the day time temperatures were not that high. Doesn't matter much that 30 was not reached I don't think - 27 and 28 were recorded on several days and many more days around 24 and 25 with warm nights.
I am talking really about the impression that the weather gives to the bodily senses and the 'feeling' of whether it is warm or cool. My feeling was that it was the former, not the latter in July overall which is why I thought the other CET trackers more reasonable.
I know that is not scientific and clearly not accurate as far as the whole CET zone is concerned. It's good sometimes I think to 'stick one's finger in the air' and 'feel' the weather rather than just rely on stats. It's more fun!
Moose
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Thanks once again Jackone for putting these results together for everyone.
Like a few others, I am very surprised at how low the CET figure is; it doesn't seem quite right somehow and to be adjusted downwards seems very odd indeed. Netweather's own tracker had a much more believable 16.8!
Moose
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Hadops has just updated and the CET now stands on 16.1C (Jul 1 -27).
There must be a fair chance the CET will reach the 71 - 00 average of 16.5C. However final quality controls on Hadley may take it back below.
So what are these 'quality controls' exactly? And why is it that Hadley always seems to revise the temperature downwards at month's end? Looking at the other CET trackers, Hadley and Manley always seem to read lower anyway - sometimes by quite a margin - and then end up being revised downwards still further. I find this rather puzzling at times. 16.1 seems low to me - despite the cool start.
Moose
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An 'averageish' 16.1 for me please.
Thanks.
Moose
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Annual CET - 2009
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
A few gremlins about - just posted in the wrong thread,
10.4 for me please.