ukmoose
-
Posts
347 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by ukmoose
-
-
The last few days have been pretty warm and one or two cooler nights have been more than offset recently by several very warm nights. I would guess a rise if anything over the last few days. Then there is the mandatory downwards correction (I still don't understand this) so should be between 14.1 and 14.3?
-
This must be close to the driest September ever in this neck of the woods. I'd be amazed if there has been a drier one with rain on only two occasions - one of these light and the other very light.
In fact, there can't be many drier months at all. It must be in the top 10 (5? 3?) driest months on record.
Can anyone confirm this please?
Thanks.
-
A very average 10.6 for me please. Cooler in the north but only outside the CET zone.
-
Yes the honour and prestige of winning.
Which is not to be sneezed at.
Thanks Jackone - great job with the spreadsheet as always.
-
Here is the chart for September's CET. Quite a few warm predictions at the bottom; not too many cool ones which would seem to fit the recent pattern.
62 12.7C: summer blizzard
63 13.0C: shuggee
26 13.1C: Polar Gael
60 13.1C: AtlanticFlamethrower
14 13.2C: WhiteXmas
18 13.2C: BARRY
32 13.2C: Stu_London
8 13.4C: SteveB
30 13.4C: pjb120
41 13.4 NorthNorfolkWeather
50 13.4 artic fox
24 13.5C: virtualsphere
45 13.5C: Duncan McAlister
3 13.6C: Koppite
52 13.6C: Mr Maunder
57 13.6C: Polar Continental
35 13.7C: Norrance
19 13.8C: BLAST FROM THE PAST
39 13.8C: Terminal Moraine
4 13.9C: fozfoster
36 13.9C: mark bayley
46 13.9C: Megamoonflake
69 13.9C: Timmead late entry 10 P Points
2 14.0C: Gavin P
15 14.0C: mullender83
28 14.0C: Anti-Mild
47 14.0C: Blizzards
53 14.0C: sundog
59 14.0C: fozi999
68 14.0C: StormMad26 late entry 10 P Points
71 14.0C: JACKONE late entry 10 P Points
13 14.1C: NaDamantaSam
27 14.1C: snowmaiden
37 14.1C: cookie
44 14.1C: DAVID SNOW
67 14.1C: Stargazer late entry 10 P Points
7 14.2C: sufc
11 14.2C: adamjones416
21 14.2C: Mr Data
49 14.2C: ukmoose
51 14.2C: damianslaw
55 14.2C: Stratos Ferric
66 14.2C: mk13 late entry 10 P Points
74 14.2C: osmposm late entry 10 P Points
12 14.3C: Pete Tattum
34 14.3C: DR Hosking
64 14.3C: acbrixton
70 14.3C: Don late entry 10 P Points
25 14.4C: The watcher
40 14.4C: stewfox
56 14.4C: phil n.warks
5 14.5C: Tribe3000
16 14.5C: The PIT
42 14.5C: Kentish Man
58 14.5C: Jack Wales
61 14.5C: GRHinPorts
65 14.5C: Thundery wintry showers late entry 10 points P Points
73 14.5C: Snowstorm1 late entry 10 points P Points
6 14.6C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
43 14.6C: reef
38 14.7C: wiganweather.com
31 14.8C: evil monkey
10 14.9C: mike Meehan
33 14.9C: davehsug
17 15.0C: chionomaniac
9 15.2C: Shiny Bottom 1
54 15.4C: Roger J Smith
29 15.8C: Optimus Prime
20 16.0C: Mike W
22 17.0C: Craig Evans
-
The rolling 10 year average is interesting - pretty high figure that. Thinking about it, I can't remember a cool September in recent years though I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong.
Going by that, I will plump for 14.2 please.
-
Bother - I'm a little late with my entry. I will go for 16.7C please if only because the night time minima will probably stay relatively high due to cloud cover!
Thanks
-
A hot start, guessing a slight cool down after that but still warm overall.
17 please
-
Thanks very much for all the superb work compiling the spreadsheet of results Jackone.
-
Warmish 14.9 C please.
-
Is this normal service resumed after a few months' interruption when temperatures (almost) fell back to long term averages in some cases? Quite likely I would think.
I'll go for 12.2 please.
-
Warm start on the cards. At least a week or more substantially above average by day at least. I'll go for 9.2 C please. Thanks.
-
http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...=54205&st=0
latest blog out.
Also do you agree with my thoughts that this is the best Alpine winter since 2005-06, all thoughts welcome.
Most certainly. In fact, from a purely personal point of view, we had the best snow conditions this February (both depth and quality) that I can remember for a long time. 10 years at least. And possibly longer. No slush, no artificial snow required anywhere, perfect conditions really. Definitely much better than the same time in February 06. Not the same resort, but not too far apart (La Plagne in 06, Morzine this year.)
-
You could also argue that for so many winters we have lacked low heights in europe with the jet stream locked mostly SW-NE all the way into NE Europe with pressure high over mainland europe. That hasn't happened ONCE this winter, beyond the the briefest of ridges prior to xmas over France and also the Azores ridge of the last week or two (which doesn't qualify as a Euro High anyway) - and now we see the same NW-SE jet pattern that has dominated the winter pattern carried into Spring with this weeks outlook. Therefore in the same way that this jet pattern was AWOL, assumed dead (till 08-09) sooner or later the propensity for blocking around Iceland/Greenland will be seen again.
Most of this 'can't happen anymore' stuff is more psychologically self induced than anything else. Get enough modern winterism clones together to repeatedly say 'can't' or 'won't' or 'should have but didn't' and it magnifies and distorts true perspective. Anyone would think that 20-30 yrs of weather patterns represented cut and dried climate history as a whole!
Even with the spoiling second half of Feb, I think that the final month return still completes a very impressive return, not just by recent poorer two decadal standards but over the last 30-40 yrs. The problem is that modern winterism people now express disappointment based on outlier cold winters, when in recent years (up to and including last winter) they would have been expressing disappointment matched against even average winters. Hence the goalpost moving. Which leaves you thinking that if next winter went colder than this one it would still be reflected as 'what might have been' and was nowhere near 1740 or the last little ice age
. Grass always greener, and all that. Colder winters have to start somewhere, and from that perspective this one has surpassed expectations - even with the 'what might have been' factor of the unexpected warmer second half of Feb. I am one of those 'modern winterists' as you put it and there is nothing that has happened this winter that has changed my mind that the climate is warming.
I don't think anyone is saying 'it can't happen anymore', just that it isn't happening much in recent years and the years are ticking by. Something has changed and as each year passes it's another year to add to the, let's call it, 'less wintry period' that we are in.
One winter rather colder than the long term average, first for many years and coldest since when, 96? But How can one winter change anyone's view? Winters are no longer as cold as they were (can't argue with the facts) and although cold weather can and does still occur, it fails (at the moment) to bring the low temperatures that we used to get and, in the main, does not last as long. This winter has tried valiantly to halt the trend and came very close. Who knows how long this will continue?
That is not to say that I am in the 'winters were always much colder I were a lad' camp either. Winter weather fluctuates; of course it does. There have always been mild winters even in runs of very cold ones and in the depths of our coldest periods.
The point is, we are in a phase where sustained cold weather is not happening very often compared to the very mild conditions that prevail more often than not. They haven't prevailed this year; and yes, it has been cold, but not bitingly so. The programme that was on the TV last week must have been rather amusing (I admit I didn't see it) and more than a little embarrassing I would think. Where did they manage to find enough material for their 'Arctic Britain' I wonder?
Weather patterns change over time. This may, in the very long term, lead to climate change as climate is derived from weather over a long period of time 'averaged' out. It may just be an (albeit rather long) blip. Some of us doubt that more than others I guess but neither camp can predict the future so we just have to comment on what each passing season brings.
-
6.6 please, just a tad above the long term average would seem reasonable.
-
Hi all I'm new to these forums and this is my first post so please be kind!
I'm off to Val Thorens at the beginning of April (around Easter to be precise) and I'm a tad worried about going so late in the season, i.e snow cover will be poor.
However what with the current snow conditions this winter so far (and I look every day!) and the altitude of this resort should I not be worried? I've never been to Val Thorens before so I'm not completely sure how long the snow sticks up there, so if anyone has more info or an opinion I'd be more than interested to read it!
Thanks!
Not the prettiest of resorts itself, but very high and snow conditions pretty much guaranteed well into April. Have skied there myself in April before - no problem. Lots of great skiing to be had from there too into neighbouring resorts.
-
Quick update from last week in Morzine.
Fantastic conditions all round. 4.5 days of sunshine, heavy snow Monday evening through to early hours Wednesday morning adding well over a foot of new powder to the already superb pistes. 1.5 days lost due to poor visibility, but hey, how can one complain with conditions superb for the rest of the time?
Will add some photos when I can work out how to do it!
-
Never that cold, but certainly a very snowy period for this neck of the woods with at least four quite heavy falls of snow and several other lighter ones. The snow is still lying largely unbroken in fields, side roads, gardens (and golf courses) though today has seen the highest temperature so far this month and this has taken its toll on the snowmen and other sculptures.
So frequent moderately heavy snow; no drifting to speak of; quite a lengthy cold spell ( very cold since 1st Feb with the first snow on Monday 2nd and still hanging on) but strangely, never that cold in terms of low maxima or indeed night time minima - another even larger teapot phenomenon?
-
Extremely comprehensive and very informative as always John. Great to see an old pro at work. (And I mean that in the nicest possible way!)
Thanks for all that effort.
Moose
-
Thanks for the update Jackone.
We're off to Morzine tomorrow, hoping for better conditions than we've had for the last few years at this time. All appears to be well at the moment snow-wise - but looks like it might be a bit cloudy next week after Sunday giving possibly poor, flat light but we'll see.
Will report back on return!
Moose
-
Where is that low now? It's snowing heavily here and has been for a couple of hours but it's not very windy. Light rain all day before that but the temperature dropped a couple of degrees quite quickly and the rain turned to snow.
Judging by that, I would say the low is further south than expected even as late as this afternoon?
-
Well it's been snowing heavily here now for about two hours after light rain all day before that. The roads are disappearing again - how long will it continue? All the latest charts and forecasts I looked at suggested the snowfall would be further north this evening so I'm really not sure what to expect.
Driving back just now was odd - huge puddles from the earlier snow melt, new settling snow and old snow piled up in the middle of the road and the verges. Temperature hovering around zero. If it does freeze tonight the roads will be like skating rinks.
-
SM, this is a really good question and has got better as the last week has come and gone.
It is, as far as this area is concerned, a week that has produced more heavy snowfalls than any winter since the the late 80s. Feb 91 was much colder for a week but only had one heavy fall of snow that I remember. It was however from the east and therefore cold and dry. 'Proper' snow as Steve M has alluded too because it was dry and blew around and you couldn't make snowballs from it. Probably never above minus three or so even during the snowfall.
This week has been very unusual in that we have had three (four including tonight's) quite heavy snowfalls and the snow has not melted. This in itself, for recent winters, is quite unprecedented. The warmer air has never managed to get a foothold and hence the snow has remained and been topped up by further falls.
We had snow lying here in October and November but NONE in December ( although we did have a cold spell or two) and January came in at only just above 3 for the CET. I. like SF, am not convinced that a sub 3 month is achievable any more but I am quite prepered to metaphorically 'eat my hat' if it happens this month which is surely the best chance we can possibly get.
The snow fall has been a major surprise this month, so too has the fact that the colder air has hung on for a week now (this is s really good test of a cold spell for me. If we have a whole week with the temperature barely above freezing, then that is a 'real' cold spell from the old school. This week has achieved that without, and this is the only caveat, any very low temperatures. By that I mean minus 10 or below. last night was forecast as a possibility, bit did not make it I fancy.
In summary, I think this has been a very noteworthy winter ( I know that some areas are still waiting the snowfall that we have had here), but it has also been noteworthy for the lack of very low night time minima (and I suppose very low day time maxima) which are the two things I would quibble with if it enters the record books. The other thing would be lack of VERY deep snow and drifting snow to any great depth.
Best winter for a long, long time though. No question.
-
This is unbelievable for Northampton. it's coming down heavier and heavier.
4th heavy snow fall in 1 week !!!!!!
Same here - this is hard to believe. I was not expecting any snow here today bit it's absolutely batting it down again - temperature 0 - the lying snow is receiving a lovely new, thick carpet. Can't snow like this for long, surely...
. Grass always greener, and all that. Colder winters have to start somewhere, and from that perspective this one has surpassed expectations - even with the 'what might have been' factor of the unexpected warmer second half of Feb. 
November CET
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Well miles out for October after a very toasty couple of weeks. Can't see November being particularly cold but I do hope we get a little more rain as the last three months here have been very dry.
A little above average 7.8 for November for me please.