ukmoose
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Posts posted by ukmoose
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I think I get a sense of wishful thinking in your reply. Or do you have evidence of more snow to my area before Christmas?
Quite interesting - take a look at the Netweather forecast on the home page...
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It's very interesting where the snow has remained snow and other areas have had any lying snow pretty much washed away. Also how some places had a mixture of snow, rain and sleet yesterday and others (here for example) just snow.
Shows how difficult it can be to forecast snow and even to get the temperatures about right sometimes. That was a complex little feature and the warmer air mixed in proved to be almost impossible to pin down. Fascinating.
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What I find difficult, up here in the frozen North of Norfolk is the lack of gritters on the MAIN roads. I live in the 'back of beyond' where, when we have a cold snap, a gritting lorry usually finds it's way past my house after 3-4 days. Yesterday I was on a main road which was still badly iced up. The local county council apparently has loads of salt, but has declined to pay the drivers overtime, so they work 8 hours and clock off, normally the driver work an average of 10 hours, allowing many more roads to be gritted, and earning some extra money as well. I cannot believe that there isn't something in the pot to pay for some extra gritting to be done.
It does sometimes seem sometimes to be a question of money - or lack of it.
Here's a thought why don't councils turn off some of the ridiculous amount of street lights we have in this country and stop lighting areas that don't need to be lit where only cars (with headlights) go thereby saving a) money (to use on other essential services) and :lol: using less energy and creating less pollution from power stations. I think we must waste more money lighting huge areas and miles of roads than most other countries - certainly in Europe.
Sorry - off topic, rant over! Freezing fog and very, very icy here today after yesterday evening's snow. Shame it looks odds on now for the cold to give way on Christmas day (in the south at least).
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Been snowing very heavily in Slapton,Bucks for 3 hours Posted Image cars all over the place, had to leave my van in Dunstable town centre.
Crazy amounts of snow, anyone else in Bucks or Beds getting hammerd Posted Image
Well it's been snowing steadily here fro about 2 hours - nothing really heavy but it's all snow, no rain or sleet so far. Quite happy for it to snow all night...!
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Just to report it is snowing here now and settling.
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You've got to be kidding me! Snow to the east, snow to the west, snow to the north, snow to the south..
Nah, not to the north. Nothing here.
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Now raining in Aylesbury.
17 miles up the road from you - still dry here if rather cloudy. 'Feels' damp though.
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Out in the furthest reaches of the SE zone (north Bucks) nothing! Warmest day since last Thursday (2 degrees approx) and the lying snow is beginning to melt a little. See what the evening brings...
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Thats right
Its 10 x [(number of days with lying snow at 9am)+(number of days with falling sleet/snow)+(number of days with minimum at or below 0c)] divided by the winter mean maximum temperature up to that particular date
Thanks very much Mr D
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It looks like the decadal average for December for the 00s could be cooler than February's
February 2000s CET: 5.03
December 2000s CET: 4.96 up to December 2008
So this December needs to have a CET of 5.7 to equal the February's decadal average.
It could also be colder than the January's decadal average as well: 5.02
In the 1870s, December was a colder month for that decade than either January or February.
Interesting facts re December being the coldest of the winter months. I'm not surprised - most Januarys and Februarys seem to have been a big let down in terms of cold wintry weather and there have been quite a few particularly mild ones I think.
By the way (sorry if I have missed it somewhere) but how does the winter index work? I am assuming points for days of lying snow and/or reaching certain temperatures? Thanks.
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Very interesting set up with a pretty good chance of snow for this part of the south east later on this evening and over night if things stay as programmed although even at this close range it's a very difficult call.
Interesting that the BBC local forecast is for 2 degrees max and heavy rain on Thursday (Christmas Eve) - that seems to have come out of the blue a little since last night and I wasn't expecting that. It just seems at least 24 hours too early. Any thoughts on that anyone?
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Well I guess I just about creep into the south east region - close as any of the others anyway.
We actually had more snow on Thursday night than I expected (two inches probably) and it's all still here topped up last night when it snowed heavily at 11.00pm for about 25 minutes. Another inch I would think. It was all snow, no rain at all (yesterday was an ice day here I would guess) and the temperature today couldn't have got above 1 degree at the most so the snow is all still here. I was quite surprised to read that others had rain and not much snow from that front last night.
No sign of snow today - but it is just beginning to cloud over from the north looks like which is a shame as it will keep the temperature up and I'm not expecting any snow from it.
All up in the air (excuse the pun!)over the next coup[le of days at least. Could go either way still after that.
Good to see that quite a few people have had snow anyway. Fingers crossed that others may see some in time for Christmas...
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The 'christmas pudding' is seen by some as a a term used to describe the last 20 years of UK winter weather. Its used a lot by some on the model output discussion.
The term as I understand seeks to summarise the last 20 uk winters, which have generally been characterised by a lack of real cold particularly long lasting or any wide spread long lasting snow cover.
Forgetting last year, which some people suggest was localised and anyway lack real cold, no one can dispute over all for cold lovers the last 20 uk winter years has been disappointing
So why don't I like the term, I'm ok with labels we use them to describe 'the little ice age 1150 -1460' and numerous others.
What I don't like about the term is some people seem to 'suggest' we cant now go back to seeing a 47 63 or even a 86 /87 type period
Seems to imply a permanent fundamental shift rather then a blink on the stats.
Any thoughts ?
That's a reasonable assessment of the situation. I like the term myself and use it often. It's clear, concise and conveys meaning to everyone even if some people don't like it.
Don't quite think your reason for not liking it is quite right - it doesn't convey what will happen in the future at all, just what has happened in the recent past and continues to the present.
Winters have changed (like it or not) and hiding from the fact by not liking the term being used doesn't change anything. Winters have been without extensive cold for a number of years in the UK period.
Yeah, it's a useful term I think just one that frustrates some people (not you necessarily) perhaps because they don't want to accept that change has happened or believe it hasn't even happened.
It's ok not to like the term - but that shouldn't prevent people from using it in their musings if they wish.
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Many thanks, as always, Jackone, for your hugely appreciated hard labour.
I would like to echo this sentiment and say a big thank you to Jackone for all the effort that must go in to producing these spreadsheets. It's great thread. Many thanks.
Tried to edit my last pot but couldn't for some reason.
Thanks very much Osmposm for posting the link to Hadley. Also, well done on your third , sorry, equal second place!
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Not sure what Hadley is at the moment as I can't find it but going by Philip's site it's looking like Roger J Smith is in the box seat with 8.5 at the lower end with Polar Continental with 8.9 at the top end. Nothing in between so perhaps no-one will get it spot on this month...
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Philip has the CET at 8.8 to the 28th so a slight drop but still a pretty mild looking month. Should drop a little more today and tomorrow. With the inevitable corrections maybe finishing around 8.6? Might be point 1 or 2 less than that but still heading for the top 10 warmest Novembers I think.
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5.1 for me please.
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It would take something quite special to reach the record (11.4C per day from now), however the upcoming mild weather will have a huge effect on the CET.
Hadley has updated and yesterday came in at 10.9C, meaning the mean is now 8.4C to the 13th - up 0.3C from yesterday.
A value of 9.0C+ after next weekend could be realistic now. A well above average month could also be a possibility (9.0C would be the 7th warmest in 350 years).
The first daffodil shoots should be through soon then.
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For me the biggest problem for cold and snow has always been low pressure in the region to the west and south-west of Svalbard, particularly the Greenland/Iceland area- this serves both to cut off the polar air in northerly regimes and to prevent high pressure over Scandinavia from getting far west enough to direct polar or arctic continental air directly across to Britain.
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Great job as always Jackone. Thanks for putting in so much effort to keep the competition running.
Moose
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The weather itself seems to be biased towards warming?
Indeed. The evidence posted is as clear as day. Not that that makes many people happy.
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December 1995 if your going by the 61-90 average at 2.3c,or december 1996 at 2.9c with the 71-00 average.
Thank you Snowyowl. I knew it had been a while since we had anything that cold. And the next one will be...
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The last month to be 2C below average Ukmoose was May 1996 with a CET of of only 9.1C.
Thanks Craig - I had a feeling it was some time ago but that's even longer than I thought. And the last winter month 2 degrees or more below...I'll check it out.
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February 4.1c above by 0.4c
March 7.0c above by 1.3c
April 10.0 c above by 2.1c
May 12.1c above by 0.9c
June 14.8c above by 0.6c
July 16.1c above by 0.1c
August 16.6c above by 0.8c
September14.2c above by 0.6c
October 11.6c above 0.9c (so far)
I wouldn't call every month since February well above average! I wouldn't say February, June, July, August and September was well above the average. Above average yes, but if you say there well above average, then what would you say April and March was?
Fair enough - I think only April could be considered to be 'well above' average in this list. If you average the last nine months they come out at 0.86 (rounded to one decimal place) above the mean which is probably not far off par for the course these days. Few months come in below average now and rarely is a month 'well below' average which possibly leads to a little hyperbole occasionally when assessing how much 'above' average it has been. Depends how we interpret 'well above' or 'well below' I suppose but 2 whole degrees or more would seem reasonable.
By that reckoning, when was the last 'well below' average month I wonder and how many 'well above' months have there been in the same time period? Or is there an official 'well above/below' limit that could be referred to?
East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I wouldn't rule it out just yet. Chances are against but it's not that clear cut and you might just be far enough north to mean any precipitation might remain on the wintry side.
Less than 3 days to go and still not cut and dried, chances increase the further north you are.
What's the situation where you are Nick? Has it warmed up? What about snow in the Pyrenees?