ukmoose
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Posts posted by ukmoose
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It has stopped here now. It is not raining however so may just stay..? Not sure what the temperature is but it's good snow, not wet and very deep. Deepest for 18 years in these parts easily.
Just helped push a car back with 8 other people as it got stuck trying to drive out.
Fantastic!
Edit: I'm assuming everything moved a little further south at the last minute?? Anyone?
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Don't quite understand this - snow much heavier here than on Monday even. 5 to 6 inches I would say and still snowing. BBC site still have us down for sleet, Metcheck too. Met Office warning was removed. Many roads pretty much impassable at the moment.
What's going on?? (Great to see though!)
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Global warming isn't something to buy in to or not. It's there. Fact. (Even the Antarctic is no longer immune it would seem). In itself, it is not a theory but based on massive amounts of data.
What's causing the warming and how long it will continue is open to much debate. Natural cycles, man-made emissions, combination of the two - this is where the grey area lies.
I think it is unlikely that the actual warming is in fact what is causing our mild run of winters. I think it relates more to what Steve said at the start of this thread and what TOM referred to in a post a few months back. I think the real impact of GW is a few years down the line. 10 to 50 maybe.
Looking at the upcoming cold spell, it seems the curse is about to strike once more (not many will be surprised, though many more will still be sorely disappointed. It's just how it is nowadays - we can get close it seems, very close even (none closer than this winter) but factors now always conspire to prevent real cold from spending any extended period over the UK.
18 years since the last widespread severe cold spell for the UK is a long time in human terms, but not that long in climate terms. Maybe next winter it will revert...or the one after.
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I'll go for 3.7 please.
Thanks
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Just a quick and late reminder that the latest ski blogs have been saved in the usual place.
http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=52592
Also be interested to hear views on the season so far, after another good start it seems that snow falls have been a bit erratic lately and while it has been generally cold, January has been a little disappointing month yet again.
I think that's right, Jackone. The same pattern for the last few year seems at the moment to be repeating.
If it continues, February will be worse still with milder temperatures at low levels with unreliable snow and rain at lower levels and then it will probably pick up again for March (and last year, April). This would be very disappointing from a personal point of view as we are skiing at half term in February. The last few have been erratic at best.
There seems to have been a marked slow down in snowfall with levels now seemingly falling back to long term average amounts having been quite a bit above through December. It hasn't been overly warm yet but there needs to be a bit of a turnaround I think if this February is going to break the mould of the last few.
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Been away for a while and not able to post. I see there is a late update required for the cet which I will see to.
Rather sad that you had to create a anagram pseudonym to defend your own posts, SF. Not suprising however given that they get very little support from elsewhereUncalled for, unnecessary and untrue I would say. You won't find many (any?) more able statisticians, mathematicians or meteorologists on this thread. His spelling, punctuation and grammar ain't bad either...
While i realise i may lose net points despite this possibly being a closer prediction, i have gained access to all my data, and am RAISING my CET prediction to 5.2C, 1C above average.I've checked through the thread but I can't see any further revisions so I will assume this still stands. So:
59 1.6-C: Timbo
16 1.5-C: TEITS
55 1.3-C: paul tall
56 1.0-C: SNOW-HEATWAVE-YES
20 0.6-C: Snowstorm1
92 0.4-C: Roger J Smith
57 0.3-C: suffolkboy
159 0.3-C: Polar Continental Late entry 10 P Pts
17 0.1-C: trickydicky
11 0C: wellington boot
29 0C: Snowmad79
62 0C: BUSHY
160 0.3C: tinybill Late entry 10 P Pts
60 0.5C: Matty M
150 0.5C: tundra Late entry 10 P Pts
4 0.9C: Pete Tattum
61 0.9C: stewfox
58 1.0C: dice48
33 1.3C:James M
137 1.3C: Seasons
162 1.6C: SLEETY Late entry 10 P Pts
12 1.7C: SNOWPLOUGH
138 1.7C: Mr Maunder
30 1.8C: BARRY
88 1.8C: Devon-Nelly
5 1.9C: adamjones416
7 1.9C: snowingman
67 1.9C: Terminal Moraine
68 1.9C: Gavin P
87 1.9C: Polar Side
18 2.0C: Polar Gael
114 2.0C: AtlanticFlamethrower
152 2.0C: BLAST FROM THE PAST Late entry 10 P Pts
82 2.1C: casparjack
164 2.1C: Loraine Bennett Late entry 10 P Pts
15 2.2C: Cal
19 2.2C: memories of 63
105 2.2C: West is Best
154 2.2C: Steve Murr Late entry 10 P Pts
133 2.3C: fozi999
65 2.4C: snowsure
125 2.4C: cheshire snow
124 2.5C: artic fox
143 2.5C: davehsug
10 2.6C: tcc
70 2.6C: North Sea Snow Convection
79 2.6C: Stu London
151 2.6C: RUSS L.F.C. Late entry 10 P Pts
153 2.6C: Stormmad26 Late entry 10 P Pts
2 2.7C: nick2702
54 2.7C: stormchaser1
89 2.7C: Great Plum
117 2.7C: NaDamantaSam
39 2.8C: Norrance
96 2.8C: Glacier Point
38 2.9C: snowmaiden
43 2.9C: Potent Gust
86 2.9C: damianslaw
108 2.9C: eddie
178 2.9C: Cold in Cromarty Late entry 30 P Pts
36 3.0C: mike Meehan
44 3.0C: Bobd29
48 3.0C: Rollo
32 3.1C: themusicland
66 3.1C: Mr Data
93 3.1C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
128 3.1C: Paul B
129 3.1C: osmposm
3 3.2C: TOMB RAIDER LEGEND
13 3.2C: BarnetBlizzard
41 3.2C: swfc
74 3.2C: Don
115 3.2C: mountain shadow
113 3.2C: kold weather
119 3.2C: Stratos Ferric
123 3.2C: stricklands1984
163 3.2C: Jack Wales Late entry 10 P Pts
26 3.3C: V for Very Cold
42 3.3C: Calum
80 3.3C: Anti-Mild
84 3.3C: Snowyowl9
121 3.3C: LadyPakal
158 3.3C: Thundery Wintry Showers Late entry 10 P Pts
8 3.4C: pjb120
116 3.4C: mulzy
111 3.4C: phil n.warks
145 3.4C: Paul
103 3.5C: Megamoonflake
140 3.5C: Stargazer
141 3.5C: beng
157 3.5C: reef Late entry 10 P Pts
14 3.6C: The PIT
81 3.6C: SteveB
50 3.7C: derby4life
112 3.7C: Bottesford
130 3.7C: JACKONE
134 3.7C: mark bayley
139 3.7C: ned
136 3.8C: Kentish Man
149 3.8C: TomSE20
6 3.9C: JUST BEFORE DAWN
28 3.9C: The watcher watcher
91 3.9C: DR Hosking
127 3.9C: mk13
142 3.9C: Albion Snowman
146 3.9C: Mark H
51 4.0C: jimben
53 4.0C: shuggee
106 4.0C: JJB McCabe-deluxe edition
110 4.0C: IRON-BRU
126 4.0C: Tommyd1258
148 4.0C: acbrixton
76 4.1C: Timmead
131 4.1C: Timmy H
90 4.2C: sundog
95 4.2C: Nick F
35 4.4C: brassmonkeyman
107 4.4C: ukmoose
75 4.5C: Duncan McAlister
83 4.7C: chionomaniac
52 5.2C: The calm before the storm the Storm
189 5.2C: Summer Blizzard Late 40 P Pts
47 5.3C: Summer of 95
25 5.5C: mark forster 630
77 5.7C: DAVID SNOW
45 5.8C: Supercell
46 5.9C: Optimus Prime
22 6.4C: Mike W
40 8.0C: Craig Evans
That's quite a hike up from 1.7 Summer Blizzard.
A finishing value of anything above 2.8C would be a big leap by any standards (though less notable in modern times). 5.2C is the largest upwards correction in the series plotted here: I don't see that being breached this year. 3.5C movement would be a top five leap; 3.8C would equal the largest in the even larger teapot (i.e. outturn of 3.6C or higher).
Cumulonimbus
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Member No.: 364
A finishing value of anything above 2.8C would be a big leap by any standards (though less notable in modern times). 5.2C is the largest upwards correction in the series plotted here: I don't see that being breached this year. 3.5C movement would be a top five leap; 3.8C would equal the largest in the even larger teapot (i.e. outturn of 3.6C or higher).
Reduced 87%
Attached Image
960 x 720 (30.77K)
Interesting graph SF. let's see what happens...
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Fascinating to read those stats TM. Well put together indeed.
I am trying to tie them in with my ever-fading memory and it just goes to show how we can mislead ourselves sometimes with false memories. I am guilty of that more than most probably but your figures do seem to confirm my thinking that night time minima are higher than they used to be.
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There's always a background reason for a change to cold or mild. I think sunspot and Ocean temperatures play a large part in any slight cool down, a very slight cooldown we are experiencing at present.
Can't understand why the Metoffice haven't released their provisional figure yet. Last year they were quick.
Still on holiday
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I have updated the list.
I confess to being a little surprised by the number of entries on New Year's Eve (and later!) Penalty points apply to late entries (10 points each day I think).
129 entries in total: 9 sub zero entries
52 zero to 2.9
56 3 to 4.2
12 over 4.2
My guess now would be the threes to four point twos have it.
59 1.6-C: Timbo
16 1.5-C: TEITS
55 1.3-C: paul tall
56 1.0-C: SNOW-HEATWAVE-YES
20 0.6-C: Snowstorm1
92 0.4-C: Roger J Smith
57 0.3-C: suffolkboy
159 0.3-C: Polar Continental Late entry 10 P Pts
17 0.1-C: trickydicky
11 0C: wellington boot
29 0C: Snowmad79
62 0C: BUSHY
160 0.3C: tinybill Late entry 10 P Pts
60 0.5C: Matty M
150 0.5C: tundra Late entry 10 P Pts
4 0.9C: Pete Tattum
61 0.9C: stewfox
58 1.0C: dice48
33 1.3C:James M
137 1.3C: Seasons
162 1.6C: SLEETY Late entry 10 P Pts
12 1.7C: SNOWPLOUGH
132 1.7C: Summer blizzard
138 1.7C: Mr Maunder
30 1.8C: BARRY
88 1.8C: Devon-Nelly
5 1.9C: adamjones416
7 1.9C: snowingman
67 1.9C: Terminal Moraine
68 1.9C: Gavin P
87 1.9C: Polar Side
18 2.0C: Polar Gael
114 2.0C: AtlanticFlamethrower
152 2.0C: BLAST FROM THE PAST Late entry 10 P Pts
82 2.1C: casparjack
164 2.1C: Loraine Bennett Late entry 10 P Pts
15 2.2C: Cal
19 2.2C: memories of 63
105 2.2C: West is Best
154 2.2C: Steve Murr Late entry 10 P Pts
133 2.3C: fozi999
65 2.4C: snowsure
125 2.4C: cheshire snow
124 2.5C: artic fox
143 2.5C: davehsug
10 2.6C: tcc
70 2.6C: North Sea Snow Convection
79 2.6C: Stu London
151 2.6C: RUSS L.F.C. Late entry 10 P Pts
153 2.6C: Stormmad26 Late entry 10 P Pts
2 2.7C: nick2702
54 2.7C: stormchaser1
89 2.7C: Great Plum
117 2.7C: NaDamantaSam
39 2.8C: Norrance
96 2.8C: Glacier Point
38 2.9C: snowmaiden
43 2.9C: Potent Gust
86 2.9C: damianslaw
108 2.9C: eddie
178 2.9C: Cold in Cromarty Late entry 30 P Pts
36 3.0C: mike Meehan
44 3.0C: Bobd29
48 3.0C: Rollo
32 3.1C: themusicland
66 3.1C: Mr Data
93 3.1C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
128 3.1C: Paul B
129 3.1C: osmposm
3 3.2C: TOMB RAIDER LEGEND
13 3.2C: BarnetBlizzard
41 3.2C: swfc
74 3.2C: Don
115 3.2C: mountain shadow
113 3.2C: kold weather
119 3.2C: Stratos Ferric
123 3.2C: stricklands1984
163 3.2C: Jack Wales Late entry 10 P Pts
26 3.3C: V for Very Cold
42 3.3C: Calum
80 3.3C: Anti-Mild
84 3.3C: Snowyowl9
121 3.3C: LadyPakal
158 3.3C: Thundery Wintry Showers Late entry 10 P Pts
8 3.4C: pjb120
116 3.4C: mulzy
111 3.4C: phil n.warks
145 3.4C: Paul
103 3.5C: Megamoonflake
140 3.5C: Stargazer
141 3.5C: beng
157 3.5C: reef Late entry 10 P Pts
14 3.6C: The PIT
81 3.6C: SteveB
50 3.7C: derby4life
112 3.7C: Bottesford
130 3.7C: JACKONE
134 3.7C: mark bayley
139 3.7C: ned
136 3.8C: Kentish Man
149 3.8C: TomSE20
6 3.9C: JUST BEFORE DAWN
28 3.9C: The watcher watcher
91 3.9C: DR Hosking
127 3.9C: mk13
142 3.9C: Albion Snowman
146 3.9C: Mark H
51 4.0C: jimben
53 4.0C: shuggee
106 4.0C: JJB McCabe-deluxe edition
110 4.0C: IRON-BRU
126 4.0C: Tommyd1258
148 4.0C: acbrixton
76 4.1C: Timmead
131 4.1C: Timmy H
90 4.2C: sundog
95 4.2C: Nick F
35 4.4C: brassmonkeyman
107 4.4C: ukmoose
75 4.5C: Duncan McAlister
83 4.7C: chionomaniac
52 5.2C: The calm before the storm the Storm
47 5.3C: Summer of 95
25 5.5C: mark forster 630
77 5.7C: DAVID SNOW
45 5.8C: Supercell
46 5.9C: Optimus Prime
22 6.4C: Mike W
40 8.0C: Craig Evans
Please let me know of any errors, omissions or duplications.
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The last update from me as I am off for a couple of days; will update on my return.
59 1.6-C: Timbo
16 1.5-C: TEITS
55 1.3-C: paul tall
56 1.0-C: SNOW-HEATWAVE-YES
20 0.6-C: Snowstorm1
92 0.4-C: Roger J Smith
57 0.3-C: suffolkboy
17 0.1-C: trickydicky
11 0C: wellington boot
29 0C: Snowmad79
62 0C: BUSHY
60 0.5C: Matty M
4 0.9C: Pete Tattum
61 0.9C: stewfox
58 1.0C: dice48
33 1.3C:James M
12 1.7C: SNOWPLOUGH
30 1.8C: BARRY
88 1.8C: Devon-Nelly
5 1.9C: adamjones416
7 1.9C: snowingman
67 1.9C: Terminal Moraine
68 1.9C: Gavin P
87 1.9C: Polar Side
18 2.0C: Polar Gael
114 2.0C: AtlanticFlamethrower
82 2.1C: casparjack
15 2.2C: Cal
19 2.2C: memories of 63
105 2.2C: West is Best
65 2.4C: snowsure
10 2.6C: tcc
70 2.6C: North Sea Snow Convection
79 2.6C: Stu London
2 2.7C: nick2702
54 2.7C: stormchaser1
89 2.7C: Great Plum
117 2.7C: NaDamantaSam
39 2.8C: Norrance
96 2.8C: Glacier Point
38 2.9C: snowmaiden
43 2.9C: Potent Gust
86 2.9C: damianslaw
108 2.9C: eddie
36 3.0C: mike Meehan
44 3.0C: Bobd29
48 3.0C: Rollo
32 3.1C: themusicland
66 3.1C: Mr Data
93 3.1C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
3 3.2C: TOMB RAIDER LEGEND
13 3.2C: BarnetBlizzard
41 3.2C: swfc
74 3.2C: Don
115 3.2C: mountain shadow
113 3.2C: kold weather
119 3.2C: Stratos Ferric
26 3.3C: V for Very Cold
42 3.3C: Calum
80 3.3C: Anti-Mild
84 3.3C: Snowyowl9
8 3.4C: pjb120
116 3.4C: mulzy
111 3.4C: phil n.warks
103 3.5C: Megamoonflake
14 3.6C: The PIT
81 3.6C: SteveB
50 3.7C: derby4life
112 3.7C: Bottesford
6 3.9C: JUST BEFORE DAWN
28 3.9C: The watcher watcher
91 3.9C: DR Hosking
51 4.0C: jimben
53 4.0C: shuggee
106 4.0C: JJB McCabe-deluxe edition
110 4.0C: IRON-BRU
76 4.1C: Timmead
90 4.2C: sundog
95 4.2C: Nick F
35 4.4C: brassmonkeyman
107 4.4C: ukmoose
75 4.5C: Duncan McAlister
83 4.7C: chionomaniac
52 5.2C: The calm before the storm
47 5.3C: Summer of 95
25 5.5C: mark forster 630
77 5.7C: DAVID SNOW
45 5.8C: Supercell
46 5.9C: Optimus Prime
22 6.4C: Mike W
40 8.0C: Craig Evans
Happy New Year!
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Thanks for that guys - it's really interesting to have all those charts on view with a great no-nonsense commentary.
What a great way to explain the charts which can be a little esoteric without the right input.
Happy New Year to the whole NW team and thanks for all your efforts throughout the year.
Moose
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I think it has been a cold month generally without anything particularly exciting at any stage (other than in the FI models).
To get a below average winter month is, in itself, quite unusual these days though and if we do end up a full degree or more below the 71-2000 mean then I think that must count as a real result and is probably about as low as we can get and the best we can expect.
Would much rather have this dry, frosty weather than the usual warm so'westers.
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The latest January cet list:
59 1.6-C: Timbo
16 1.5-C: TEITS
55 1.3-C: paul tall
56 1.0-C: SNOW-HEATWAVE-YES
20 0.6-C: Snowstorm1
92 0.4-C: Roger J Smith
57 0.3-C: suffolkboy
17 0.1-C: trickydicky
11 0C: wellington boot
29 0C: Snowmad79
62 0C: BUSHY
60 0.5C: Matty M
4 0.9C: Pete Tattum
61 0.9C: stewfox
58 1.0C: dice48
33 1.3C:James M
12 1.7C: SNOWPLOUGH
30 1.8C: BARRY
88 1.8C: Devon-Nelly
5 1.9C: adamjones416
7 1.9C:snowingman
67 1.9C: Terminal Moraine
68 1.9C: Gavin P
87 1.9C: Polar Side
18 2.0C: Polar Gael
82 2.1C: casparjack
15 2.2C: Cal
19 2.2C: memories of 63
105 2.2C: West is Best
65 2.4C: snowsure
10 2.6C: tcc
70 2.6C: North Sea Snow Convection
79 2.6C: Stu London
2 2.7C: nick2702
54 2.7C: stormchaser1
89 2.7C: Great Plum
39 2.8C: Norrance
96 2.8C: Glacier Point
38 2.9C: snowmaiden
43 2.9C: Potent Gust
86 2.9C: damianslaw
108 2.9C: eddie
36 3.0C: mike Meehan
44 3.0C: Bobd29
48 3.0C: Rollo
32 3.1C: themusicland
66 3.1C: Mr Data
93 3.1C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
3 3.2C: TOMB RAIDER LEGEND
13 3.2C: BarnetBlizzard
41 3.2C: swfc
74 3.2C: Don
26 3.3C: V for Very Cold
42 3.3C: Calum
80 3.3C: Anti-Mild
84 3.3C: Snowyowl9
8 3.4C: pjb120
103 3.5C: Megamoonflake
14 3.6C: The PIT
81 3.6C: SteveB
50 3.7C: derby4life
6 3.9C: JUST BEFORE DAWN
28 3.9C: The watcher watcher
91 3.9C: DR Hosking
51 4.0C: jimben
53 4.0C: shuggee
106 4.0C: JJB McCabe-deluxe edition
76 4.1C: Timmead
90 4.2C: sundog
95 4.2C: Nick F
35 4.4C: brassmonkeyman
107 4.4C: ukmoose
75 4.5C: Duncan McAlister
83 4.7C: chionomaniac
52 5.2C: The calm before the storm
47 5.3C: Summer of 95
25 5.5C: mark forster 630
77 5.7C: DAVID SNOW
45 5.8C: Supercell
46 5.9C: Optimus Prime
22 6.4C: Mike W
40 8.0C: Craig Evans
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It is hard to call, but judging by the latest trends, my guess would be for the cold to be shunted out of the way so I am going to revise my guess upwards to 4.4.
Just been reading through the model thread which looks gloomy - we need to remember it has been nearly 18 years since the last major wintry outbreak. That's a very long time. We have been very close on several occasions, including this one, but for various reasons, we never quite make it. We have to accept that things have changed and move on.
This frosty spell represents good value for recent winters though and a December at least below the average can't be all bad.
Updated list coming up.
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These are the ones falling within my living memory. 1971 followed on from the picture postcard 1970 White Christmas. 1979 had spectacular snow drifts in my area during that first week. The oddity is 2002 which despite being the most recent is the only one that registers a complete blank in my mind.
Interesting stats as always Mr D.
As to 2002, I think it was a rather strange month in many ways Nothing spectacularly cold at all if I recall correctly but several days hovering around freezing, some snow that threatened to be heavier but never quite made it, fairly cloudy and non-descript which is why it can't be recalled too easily i suspect. Could be wrong though!
I will try to update the list later.
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I am going with 3.7
I would just love it to be lower but hopecast as I may, I just can't see it averaging out lower than this. It depends on how long the block can last; how low the night time minima drop to and how mild it gets when the Atlantic rushes back in. At least we look like having a good chance of a colder than average January to stop the run of poor ones experienced in recent times.
59 1.6-C: Timbo
16 1.5-C: TEITS
55 1.3-C: paul tall
56 1.0-C: SNOW-HEATWAVE-YES
20 0.6-C: Snowstorm1
92 0.4-C: Roger J Smith
57 0.3-C: suffolkboy
17 0.1-C: trickydicky
11 0C: wellington boot
29 0C: Snowmad79
62 0C: BUSHY
60 0.5C: Matty M
4 0.9C: Pete Tattum
61 0.9C: stewfox
58 1.0C: dice48
33 1.3C:James M
12 1.7C: SNOWPLOUGH
30 1.8C: BARRY
88 1.8C: Devon-Nelly
5 1.9C: adamjones416
7 1.9C:snowingman
67 1.9C: Terminal Moraine
68 1.9C: Gavin P
87 1.9C: Polar Side
18 2.0C: Polar Gael
82 2.1C: casparjack
15 2.2C: Cal
19 2.2C: memories of 63
65 2.4C: snowsure
10 2.6C: tcc
70 2.6C: North Sea Snow Convection
79 2.6C: Stu London
2 2.7C: nick2702
54 2.7C: stormchaser1
89 2.7C: Great Plum
39 2.8C: Norrance
38 2.9C: snowmaiden
43 2.9C: Potent Gust
69 2.9C: Nick F
86 2.9C: damianslaw
36 3.0C: mike Meehan
44 3.0C: Bobd29
48 3.0C: Rollo
32 3.1C: themusicland
66 3.1C: Mr Data
3 3.2C: TOMB RAIDER LEGEND
13 3.2C: BarnetBlizzard
41 3.2C: swfc
74 3.2C: Don
26 3.3C: V for Very Cold
42 3.3C: Calum
80 3.3C: Anti-Mild
84 3.3C: Snowyowl9
8 3.4C: pjb120
14 3.6C: The PIT
81 3.6C: SteveB
50 3.7C: derby4life
93 3.7C: ukmoose
24 3.8C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
6 3.9C: JUST BEFORE DAWN
28 3.9C: The watcher watcher
91 3.9C: DR Hosking
51 4.0C: jimben
53 4.0C: shuggee
76 4.1C: Timmead
90 4.2C: sundog
35 4.4C: brassmonkeyman
75 4.5C: Duncan McAlister
83 4.7C: chionomaniac
52 5.2C: The calm before the storm the Storm
47 5.3C: Summer of 95
25 5.5C: mark forster 630
77 5.7C: DAVID SNOW
45 5.8C: Supercell
46 5.9C: Optimus Prime
22 6.4C: Mike W
40 8.0C: Craig Evans
8 guesses so far below zero
32 guesses between 0 and 3
11 so far over the 71-2000 average of 4.2
Let me know of any errors and I will correct when I return.
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I'm not sure much of this is exactly true. I think you need to compare weather conditions proportionate to the exact synoptics that prevail/have prevailed for the month
The position of the current high has produced exactly the conditions one would normally expect(and have always experienced) in this sort of situation. It was always going to be the case that the air with the lowest dewpoints (and hence clearest conditions) were going to be southern most areas closest to the cold surface air off the continent. Temperatures here for eg barely got above freezing point yesterday and are still below freezing this morning. I think someone on the model thread has confirmed that temps right on the south coast fell a fair bit below freezing last night,somewhere you would expect moderation from the sea in this set-up so I don't think one can suggest that somehow there has been a failure to produce proportionately cold conditions to the synoptics.
It has always been the case that places further north closest to a high pressure like this with a flow off the north sea will be cloudier and hence minima not so low. Bear in mind also that 850 temps were never predicted to be below 0, and combined with the breeze was never going to be (nor ever would have been) conduicive for the sort of temps you are expecting - so I don't see how anything has happened any different to what was expected, nor would ever have occured.
I think the final outurn for this month is fair historic parallel with any such month with parellel synoptics experienced in the 71-00 series.
I certainly think there would be room for complaint if the high had been situated further north of the Baltic/southern Scandinavia and pulling in colder upper air - then the expectation would certainly have been greater!
We have seen no excessively cold synoptics this month (ie high latitude blocking) yes there has been a favourably amplified jet axis in the first half of the month with a northward displaced atlantic high but most winter months are not parallel cold all the way through and have milder spells such as the one between 18 -25 (ish) of this month. If the expectation is being measured against an outlier Dec 1962 or even a 1978 which have never been part of the UK mean, then I can see how your frustrations are validated.
The final figure, with adjustments, being high 3's in probablity is very good and fair value for the synoptic evolutions of the month IMO
You are correct in that the evolution of the high has meant that advection of really cold air has missed us by and large (as it usually does).
My point really refers to the fact that even with easterly winds from a coldish continent, we can't get below zero at the end of December!! Night time minima are held up compared to values in previous winters and that is largely why, in my opinion, we can't, seeminlgy, return a low cet anymore - (3 or below).
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Once again, (and I hate to harp on about it) but one can't fail to notice how the night time minima have scuppered any chance of December returning a really low cet.
We've had two cold spells with a mild interlude in between. We've had some cold days (two or three degrees above zero on a couple of occasions, quite a lot at only 4 or 5 and the milder period was relatively short.
But this present cold spell sums up the problem. Here we are with an anti cyclone sitting to our north east in a classic position feeding in 'cold' (admittedly not very cold) continental air and the temperature at night can hardly get below freezing even when it is forecast to. Last night was not even cold enough here for a layer of ice on our very shallow bird bath!!
Quite a lot of cloud around and the air is dry with a slight breeze, but come on, in the past we would have had quite a few nights at -4 or -5 at the very least. I'd be quite surprised if we've managed - 1 here these past few nights even though the days have been cold. Hardly any difference between the two and therein lies the problem for achieving a very low cet.
If that can't change there is no chance of a sub 3 cet let alone lower than that I would say.
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A cold month - certainly colder than I thought we would get. But still no sub 3 month...
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Latest update for January's CET
59 1.6-C: Timbo
16 1.5-C: TEITS
55 1.3-C: paul tall
56 1.0-C: SNOW-HEATWAVE-YES
20 0.6-C: Snowstorm1
57 0.3-C: suffolkboy
17 0.1-C: trickydicky
11 0C: wellington boot
29 0C: Snowmad79
62 0C: BUSHY
60 0.5C: Matty M
4 0.9C: Pete Tattum
61 0.9C: stewfox
58 1.0C: dice48
33 1.3C:James M
12 1.7C: SNOWPLOUGH
30 1.8C: BARRY
5 1.9C: adamjones416
7 1.9C:snowingman
67 1.9C: Terminal Moraine
68 1.9C: Gavin P
18 2.0C: Polar Gael
15 2.2C: Cal
19 2.2C: memories of 63
65 2.4C: snowsure
10 2.6C: tcc
70 2.6C: North Sea Snow Convection
2 2.7C: nick2702
54 2.7C: stormchaser1
39 2.8C: Norrance
38 2.9C: snowmaiden
43 2.9C: Potent Gust
69 2.9C: Nick F
36 3.0C: mike Meehan
44 3.0C: Bobd29
48 3.0C: Rollo
32 3.1C: themusicland
66 3.1C: Mr Data
3 3.2C: TOMB RAIDER LEGEND
13 3.2C: BarnetBlizzard
41 3.2C: swfc
26 3.3C: V for Very Cold
42 3.3C: Calum
8 3.4C: pjb120
14 3.6C: The PIT
50 3.7C: derby4life
24 3.8C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
6 3.9C: JUST BEFORE DAWN
28 3.9C: The watcher watcher
51 4.0C: jimben
53 4.0C: shuggee
35 4.4C: brassmonkeyman
9 4.9C: SteveB
52 5.2C: The calm before the storm the Storm
47 5.3C: Summer of 95
25 5.5C: mark forster 630
45 5.8C: Supercell
46 5.9C: Optimus Prime
22 6.4C: Mike W
40 8.0C: Craig Evans
No less than 7 members going for a sub-zero cet and three for the big zero. 33 so far plumping for a sub 3 month even though it has been a number of years since we achieved one. Hmmm
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I think we tend to have short memories. There was a much better event than this three or four years ago. As late as the 23rd/24th Dec GFS had a major system tracking south in a NE'ly flow right across the UK on the 26th. That was, in snowfall terms, far more potent than anything on these current charts, and much closer at hand - firmly within the outer marker for reliability, and pretty much at the inner marker: that one didn't land!
Ah, but since then, much thicker ear muffs and considerably darker glasses are worn by all rampers south of Grampian. The SATSIGS police have been unable to cut off the supply. Definitely still at level 3 and heading upwards.
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ok back from the Christmas break - I'll update the list later.
Can we really be heading for a sub 3 month?? After all these years?
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Great to see the return of SATSIGS - wouldn't be a proper winter without it.
I can see lots of ramps towards the top end of the scale, but have a nagging doubt that they will not bear much in the way of fruit, except maybe the odd pear. Keep the ramps coming though I say.
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think you might want to repost that in the 2009 thread - unless you are expecting the sun to suddenly expand and engulf the earth in the few days
yes indeed - sorry! Have done so now.
Todays Weather And General Weather Chat
in Weather reports
Posted
Just stopped snowing leaving a good five inches of deep, powdery snow. heaviest snow for 18 years for this area.
Very surprising given all the forecasts last night. I am guessing everything stayed further south than expected?
Could anyone enlighten me?