IanT
-
Posts
209 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by IanT
-
-
I’m slightly surprised we haven’t had a yellow warning for wind on Saturday. Even the MetO app is indicating near 70kph gusts later in the day.
-
Not quite an ice day here just outside Woking. MetO were suggesting a few flakes possible this evening, but I don’t think so…
-
24 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:
Nah. It just looks like a roided up version of Storm Ciaran. Just avoid the Channel and coasts and you'll be fine.
Now, the one a couple of days later however....
That would make for an interesting period of weather…
-
1
-
-
I agree that the notion that model runs favour certain outcomes according to the time of release should be dismissed. Not science, as pointed out by @TillyS above.
However, I do think the earlier observation that NWP models may be too ready to forecast wintry conditions for the UK in the period just beyond the reliable timeframe is worthy of investigation. I wonder whether an analysis of the “snow row” would show that the necessary conditions for snow are forecast more frequently in the 96-192h range than in the 0-96h range? You’d expect the modelled incidence to be the same wouldn’t you?
My entirely subjective (and no doubt confirmation bias driven!) sense is that wintry conditions continue to be far more prevalent in the 96-192h range than they are in real life.
-
4
-
-
34 minutes ago, AdrianHull said:
Quite a few "told you so statements this morning in here" If you bang the drum long enough guessing a return to mild you will eventually get that moment
After last nights great charts a backtrack was to be expected but that tide will come back in again for the cold. So much to play for and a lot to look forward to in the next 3 or 4 days
I think that is a misrepresentation. Of course there is always a return to milder conditions, but many of the optimistic predictions of cold/wintry weather were time-bound - that is they related to a specific date or period. If cold/wintry is now not forecast for that period, then those who expressed scepticism with respect to the original forecasts were correct.
-
3
-
2
-
-
What is the % probability of widespread low-lying snow in the SE of England this week?
5-10%..?
I’ll be very happy for this post to age extremely poorly, but I think we all have experience of over-optimistic models in the 72-144h range. We’ve all seen so many let downs! In all honesty, if our realised weather matched that frequently modelled for 3+ days out I suspect there’d be much less pressure/excitement around wintery spells. How many times are the various models forecasting widespread snowfall whilst the Met Office remain disinterested? And how often are the Met Office shown to be right in their caution?
-
3
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
2 minutes ago, Jacob said:Ah yes, the SE unironically misses out
Misses out??? A beautiful winter day here today. I was out early with the dog, enjoying the cold clear air, the bright sunshine and the crunch of frost beneath my feet. I'm looking forward to a few of these days, and the models suggest this is a reasonable expectation. All good!
-
10
-
1
-
1 hour ago, Garyboy said:
Am I missing something, or are others seeing something I don't see
Well.....that's one run from one model for one time on one day.
Interest here is being sustained by the wider wintery picture that is now visible with some consistency across models for an extended period, through the reliable forecast horizon and beyond.
I don't think anyone is anticipating widespread low-lying snow across the SE - that's a tough assignment in November - but this is a cracking start to the winter period in modelling terms.
-
4
-
-
1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:
Add “Sceuro” and “Griceland”.
Shannon entropy.
All of these should be subject to hard-coded de-platforming in the same way as "large teapot"...
-
2
-
-
8 minutes ago, throwoff said:
It’s a fair comment to make though. I think people forget that the MET have private business interests supplying groups like railways and airlines. They have to be accurate. My dad works for the rail, I don’t believe snowfall till he tells me he has had the email at work.
Indeed. And to justify charging them a fee, they have to deliver something to them BEFORE they make it freely available to everyone else…
-
1
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
You have to love the model thread this time of year when the first chance of something winter-like is glimpsed. It’s like a school disco - everyone is on deck and keen to bust out their favourite moves as DJ-GFS cranks out the same tired old set he’s played every year since the “large teapot” began. As ever there’s a group of Lynx Africa drenched 5th form boys getting over-excited at the prospect of their teenage dreams being fulfilled. Meanwhile the Mean Girls from the MetO haven’t yet shown their faces. They are way too cool for school and won’t put in appearance until after midnight when the good stuff is on. One of the 5th form boys reckons he’s on a promise and is annoying everyone. Some of the older kids from the 6th form prefer to sit and mull their pints morosely in the corner. They know that discos most often lead to disappointment, particularly for the youngsters. But everyone is glad to be there, the atmosphere is building and some of the support acts are making DJ-GFS look good. The night is still young, people are still arriving and there will be ecstasy and agony for the dancers before it is done...
I’m sorry, really I am.
-
10
-
1
-
1
-
11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Best start to winter in more than a decade.
Best modelled start to winter in more than a decade.
It hasn’t happened yet!
-
5
-
3
-
-
2 minutes ago, Methuselah said:
Well, Matt, it's hardly been the first time since 2013, that we've been 'promised' a bucketload of snow, has it? It may well happen. . . But until I see snow falling past my window, I will remain a tad sceptical.
No-one has been promised anything.
-
2
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, WeatherArc said:
Nailed on, cast iron certainty.
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, Nick F said:
Yes, think AI weather models, with its machine-learning hindsight approach (think it looks back at 40 years of data) will be an important addition along with NWP, with it's physics approach. We'll soon be looking at the AI run as well as the operational run I guess!
Google DeepMind’s AI Weather Forecaster Handily Beats a Global Standard | WIRED
WWW.WIRED.COM
Machine learning algorithms that digested decades of weather data were able to forecast 90 percent of atmospheric measures more accurately than Europe’s top weather center.
DeepMind AI accurately forecasts weather — on a desktop computer
WWW.NATURE.COM
The machine-learning model takes less than a minute to predict future weather worldwide more precisely than other approaches. The machine-learning model takes less than a minute to predict future weather worldwide...-
2
-
1
-
-
5 minutes ago, Speedbird said:
... For now, each thinks they're right otherwise what would be the point of their production and why would we bother analysing each run ?
A very existential question for this forum in November..!
-
4
-
1
-
-
The radar looks quieter than perhaps anticipated. Will the yellow warning referencing the potential for thunderstorms this morning be withdrawn? Or are we still expecting some to form up?
-
On 01/11/2023 at 17:00, Catacol said:
Latest BBC forecast = gonna be a pretty ordinary day for many in the south - as windy as an ordinary autumn day. Fair enough. Not my read of it, but hey - who are we to question the Beeb or the Met....
On 03/11/2023 at 12:03, Midlands Ice Age said:Agree with most comments above about the performance of the Met Office during this storm. It was the MO that was closest to the final track.
…
However the BBC on Wed evening were still persisting with the centre sitting over the Midlands.
This is when the issues/problems started..
The general public had no idea that it was moving more south eastwards (about 100 to 150 miles) and that the major severity warnings were now transferring to the Channel Islands and Brittany. (and away from England).
Hence on Wed evening we had Hampshire closing all schools, general worrying right across Southern England, etc, over something that was not happening. Many people cancelled journeys to the south coast from around here, and when I told people that things had 'changed', I was shouted down (and I do mean in actuality) as they trusted the BBC implicitly.
…
Now is my view of the BBC forecasts incorrect?
I am concerned that people were apparently making decisions in implicit faith in the correctness of the BBC, (and thought that I was lieing or totally wrong>>>>).
Should the BBC change their data incoming timetable form 'MeteoGroup, so as the have a better chance of avoiding this situation in the future , OR is it to be accepted in the form of cost cutting in the BBC.
Most of the population trust the BBC implicitly, should it not live up to its reputation by moving back to the MO.?
I think so. See quote above - the BBC had some pretty clear messaging on the afternoon of Wednesday 1st, saying that Thursday would be a “pretty ordinary day” for many in the south. This messaging wasn’t popular here, with several posters asking where the red warnings / school closures etc were.
The BBC should be accorded some credit for their Wednesday afternoon output, which appears to have been shaped by increased confidence regarding the more southerly track.
-
1 hour ago, FetchCB said:
The Met office 2D matrix is a common tool used across industries worldwide to manage risk and the "calculations" that go into deciding probability and impact will have been carefully constructed.
https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/risk-analysis-project-management-7070
This history shows how they arrived at the current system
The impacts vary by weather type
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/guides/severe-weather-advice .
This video from Rmets shows how the decisions are made in issuing a weather warning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=7lrvJHJrEfc
I think the issue is more the interpretation of the warning that is at fault and especially the media. In the past few days we have seen headlines stating "Danger to Life" warnings issued to Southern England when in fact the Amber warning is a "potential danger to life". I'm my job as a Project Manager I use these Matrices all the time to communicate risks to the project. It is down to me to communicate how that matrix should be understood and this context the Met Office do do this. If you visit their site it is full of information on how to interpret weather warnings. the problem is that people don't bother
I have always viewed weather warnings along the following Yellow = be advised Amber = Be prepared, red take action. The Met office do state that you should read the warning in conjunction with the colour to understand the risks but as it is said you can lead a horse to water .........
Thank you.
In the context of communicating severe weather warnings to the general public, do you believe that the final (colour coding) step in the MetO’s current methodology enhances the effectiveness of their output or detracts from it?
-
1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:
A win for UKMO & UKV then. The latter was showing the strongest gusts well away from the south coast as far back as some runs on Monday, but some here seemed to dismiss it somewhat.
Very much so! I think the MetO have handled this very well in forecast terms.
I don’t think their 2-axis matrix works for the “general public” though. A low likelihood of high-impact damage/disruption is NOT the same as a high likelihood of low-impact damage/disruption. Labelling both as “Yellow” causes much of the evident confusion.
The colours are an attempt to simplify two important dimensions into one. I think this is a misguided intent, and should be reconsidered. Both dimensions are important.
-
5
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
My friend’s son goes to a state school in nearby Hampshire. It’s closed today because of the “major incident”. Meanwhile my son is at rowing training with his (independent) school. We had a message at 0600 saying that that training was on, and that they would make an assessment on river levels/condition and the overhead weather at 0800. If conditions weren’t considered safe the boys would run together (about 4km) from the boathouse to the school and train together in the gym there.
Which set of kids are getting the right messages about risk management, perseverance, commitment, attitude to life etc…?
-
8
-
2
-
10 minutes ago, Barbel said:
A cynic would say this sort of thing is Conditioning us to forcibly change our behaviour (ie staying at home to look after school kids rather than work) due to edicts related to a statistically unremarkable weather events. A precursor eventually to climate lockdowns I would suggest. Predicated by the usual Agenda 21/WEF powers and Climate Change movement and enforced by government and those in their pay.
I’m pretty cynical, but the WEF conspiracy theory stuff is far too tin-foil-hat for me. It’s more likely that officially declaring a major incident unlocks central government funding of some sort for a period and allows local government employees to “work from home”. Sadly that is incentive enough.
-
3
-
-
15 minutes ago, bevo said:
So why did Hampshire declare a major incident. There isn’t any incident other than depriving 1000s of kids an opportunity to learn. I’m sorry but Hampshire got this very wrong. I accept it is bad elsewhere but we’ve had much worse wind here and the kids still went to school no problem.
To repeat part of a post I made yesterday evening: “…a heady combination of cultural risk-aversion in the public sector, misaligned financial incentives, dilettante DR/BCP “officers” enjoying their moment in the spotlight and the popularity of “working from home” means that reaching for lockdown-like measures is all too commonplace.”
-
3
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:
Hampshire and IOW have declared a "major incident" because of the storm ... IOW perhaps justified, but a bit OTT for Hampshire? They need to ring that school up in Eastbourne instead!
This may well be why the BBC forecast used language forecasting a normal autumn day for many in the SE… No “major incident” is forecast now for large areas of the county. But a heady combination of cultural risk-aversion in the public sector, misaligned financial incentives, dilettante DR/BCP “officers” enjoying their moment in the spotlight and the popularity of “working from home” means that reaching for lockdown-like measures is all too commonplace.
-
4
-
Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
No interest in the potential for strong winds later on Saturday? Some of the models are showing gusts >90km/h. That’s enough for damage to be a possibility.