IanT
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Posts posted by IanT
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3.3c low early this morning here in Surrey. Sunny, should be a beautiful day but I think I’ll wait a while before setting off on my bike ride…
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2 minutes ago, JamesC said:
Just had a gust of 103mph (12.45 ish) in Woking, Surrey.
35 stories up though! At the top of a 400ft tower.
I was up there this morning at about 11.30 / 12, frightening.
Wow! How was that measured..?
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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:
Tableaux plot for the GEFS 12z, this is the value at each time point for the ensembles for the parameter, which is in this case, of course is wind gusts, gives an idea of the uncertainty, especially where I have indicated on Friday. This is for somewhere close to London:
Values are in km/hr.
Some extraordinary values.
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19 minutes ago, JamesC said:
So implying that all of the models are wrong along with MO and other weather agencies (excl possibly some ICON runs)?
I love your optimism! I personally think that this storm will hit and hit hard.
What is modelled is at the high end of historical experience, especially perhaps given the large area under threat. But there is more scope for downgrades than upgrades. It’s time to watch the runs, not yet time to “rush preparations to completion”…
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Interesting that the yellow warning for Friday is at the lowest point of the unlikely to very likely scale, but “high impact”. I think we see this very very rarely.
The Met Office describe “high impact” resulting from wind using the following language:
”Widespread danger to life from flying debris.
Widespread structural damage e.g. roofs blown off, mobile homes overturned, power lines brought down.
Transport routes and travel services affected for a prolonged period. Long travel delays.
Closure of main bridges, road and rail networks in many areas, and significant disruption to air and ferry transport.
Widespread and prolonged disruption to power, and/or other utilities and services.
Danger to life from large waves/beach material being thrown onto coastal route, sea fronts and coastal communities.”
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1 minute ago, Had Worse said:
So quick question.
Is that 10 metres above say my height above sea level and the same for the 2m or are we talking sea level +10m or 2m?
10m above your height.
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35 minutes ago, Ross90 said:
Why are the models struggling so badly with this? At 7 or 10 days it's to be expected but at less than 3 days it could still go anywhere or not even exist... it seems like the further away the weather gets from the seasonal norm the more hopeless the models become.
The characterisation that the models are “struggling” is inappropriate. Better to recognise that many different evolutions are possible from the current set of starting conditions, and that model output reflects this.
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24 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:
And thats why it's just a yellow warning at present, POTENTIAL high impacts but currently MODERATE probability. As soon as the probability is firmed up then warnings will be updated as necessary. The met office have played it as they should, alerted folk to the potential and advised people to stay tuned to forecasts. If they feel the need to upgrade warnings they will. The last thing they will want is to go overboard now on something that may not happen and consequently undermine trust in the warning system.
Luckily Neil Ferguson isn’t involved in NWP.
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16 hours ago, Don said:
If that happens, winter will be a goner but great for those wanting an early spring (which isn't me!!)
15 hours ago, IanT said:It’s only the second week of January. Surely a little early for “winter is over”, especially with some powerful features in play elsewhere on our side of the northern hemisphere..!?
2 hours ago, Don said:Didn't say winter was over, but it wouldn't be good if the high pressure slips south as that type of pattern is difficult to break out of and by then it will be mid to late January.
Errrr.....
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1 hour ago, Don said:
If that happens, winter will be a goner but great for those wanting an early spring (which isn't me!!)
It’s only the second week of January. Surely a little early for “winter is over”, especially with some powerful features in play elsewhere on our side of the northern hemisphere..!?
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7 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:
In the shorter term, 12z GFS has boosted the snow potential compared with 06z GFS, the example below being at T+24. Will the hi-res models follow suit?
For my Surrey location, my very accurate gut feeling says “not a chance…”
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Thunder and heavy convective rain here between Woking and Guildford.
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4 minutes ago, Surrey said:
Chobham common, ally pally, box Hill, leith Hill.. there is lots!
Newlands Corner..?
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9 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:
Perfect.
Am I correct that any convective activity is likely to be centred E of the rainfall..?
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4 minutes ago, NYCSnow said:
Not sure if you can call it a streamer but we’re under that thin line of light snow snow just west of London which is now starting to lightly cover the rooftops and cars. Not great but best it’s been all day!
I call that a streamer.
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11 minutes ago, seb said:
I really don’t understand this panic and talks of the bust of the century.
...
Based on the drifts already happening on the Downs with some country lanes being close to impassable and those conditions bound to spread and worse, the warning is spot on.
As always the emotionally charged posts are from people reacting to the gap between their hopes and reality. Not to any gap between forecasts and reality.
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8 minutes ago, Angus Mcoatup said:
Are these real?
>2 weeks away... Seriously - what is the chance this verifies? 10% maybe..?
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It’s really interesting to see the number of posts here referencing the MetO app. Clearly there are many people for whom this is the trusted source. If the MetO app doesn’t show snow for them, they are not going to be persuaded otherwise. Strange and disappointing!
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Whenever we get close to the starting line, people always start to talk about downgrades. These posters are just making the mental adjustment from what they hoped for (something better than the best forecast of the last week for their postcode!) to what is actually forecast. Thus it is only a downgrade within their personal frame of reference, hence all the counter-posts saying that they don’t see a downgrade etc etc etc.
First bottle of Making Tracks just finished. Thinking about a second. Maybe a Lynch-Moussas and some cheese straws...
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3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
I’ve been trying to work this out on all the maps . Epsom / Chessingon seems right on the edge but I can’t work it out completely.
You can’t work it out at all to the level of precision you are seeking. The system/boundaries might easily be +/- 30 miles from where they are modelled right now. Counties - yes, counties plus N/E/S/W - yes, postcode areas - possibly, postcode districts & below = no chance. In truth it’s a radar/now-cast situation from this point.
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3 minutes ago, icykev said:
The period of interest for me now is +144 late next week. Low pressure looking to make inroads deepening as it approaches UKMO 144
GEM looking to bring in the low pressure system @156
Causes severe weather and snow as it stalls and disrupts against the cold. Any thoughts on it possibly becoming a named storm, as by this time it will have already become dangerously cold. Similar to storm Emma in Feb 2018.
Resulting in this
Storm Emma 2018
Lets see what happens on the 12z✌❄
It's hard to believe the low will remain as tight and organised as it is presently modelled. But it isn't impossible, so a named storm is a real possibility. Could be a three-way tussle for naming rights though. It might be interesting to look back at the starting conditions for Emma.
I am 100% confident we'll get a "snow bomb" headline from the Daily Mail though...
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26 minutes ago, IanT said:
Could you point me to the source of these please? I have been unable to find it through google etc.
Solved.
Meteociel.fr - Tableaux GEFS v12
WWW.METEOCIEL.FRLa météo en temps réel et prévisions météo pour la France, Observations météo, modèles numériques et logiciels météo (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, GEM, AROME...-
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13 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
An improved set of GEFS for my location - cold is in by 72 and more cold members at 192, showing a trend to extend the cold.
And for our northern friends, these are for Manchester - even colder!
The for those in the north east - sweet baby Jesus
Could you point me to the source of these please? I have been unable to find it through google etc.
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Just now, topo said:
This is writing history guys.. Enjoy it..
Truly epic event for many
History is in the past topo!
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Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Lancaster, generally.