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IanT

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Posts posted by IanT

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    This southeast event tomorrow holds my interest too. That cold pool gives more than a glancing blow to where I live and more of a sea stretch perhaps to boost ppn. Icon slightly upgraded again

    image.thumb.png.e7fc89058a3aa863dd9ff80cccc87a1a.png

    I don’t think what the models show for the SE tomorrow can yet be described as an “event”.

    • Like 2
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    A small downside of a higher resolution, compared to lower resolution is indeed that a higher resolution run can pick up an unimportant detail and make a big deal out of it than a lower resolution run that would miss the detail in the first place.
    It's not uncommon to see a couple of members in an ensemble go in wildly different directions, super mild or super cold, and sometimes the Operational is that member.
    (My undocumented speculation: I suppose in the EPS the probability for that would be close to 1 in 51. Maybe it's a bit better because of the unperturbed starting data, so let's say once a month the Op goes crazy).

    The upside on the other hand is that it can pick up details that do matter and rightfully make a big deal of it.

    This is exactly one of the reason there is an ensemble in the first place. One or two members may pick up the wrong detail and blow it up unnecessarily, 51 members won't (or rarely).

    This is also why it's best to follow an Op only to day 5 or 6, and to use the rest of it only for your entertainment. The ensemble mean and the clusters will be much more helpful after that.

    It’s very simple. The model/resolution/run that shows the most wintry outcome for SE England is “correct”. The others are “struggling” and their output is “for the bin” 😏

    • Like 9

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Up late, so still Thursday for me. We’ve seen hours of very heavy rain here since about 2pm. Apple’s weather app suggests 24mm, but I suspect more in places where downpours have happened.

    I’ve been out this evening. The incidences and volume of surface water everywhere is as high as I’ve ever seen. Many stretches of road flooded already, and safe to assume that the situation will deteriorate in rural areas as run-off occurs.

     

    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    58 minutes ago, offerman said:

    image.thumb.png.30223d8b6b77a4c555001af7d8c7414f.png

    this chart for me is the absolute pinnacle if this could verify. you have a beautiful tilted high-pressure system tilted in an north east lead direction, sat over Greenland, going up into. Svalbard. Then you have a tilted south-western north east low pressure system sat right over the UK and into Germany and Poland, giving a constant feed of cold and snow picking up moisture of the north sea as well feeding those heavy snow showers into wider areas of snow and troughs from the east
    I have seen this set up once before I’m sure it was in 90s definitely seen it in the 80s but in the 90s I remember Francis wilson forecast saying when they expected it to break down and it just went on and and then it extended up and the weather was coming all the way from Siberia all the way down in a South Wesley direction from Siberia to hit the UK was incredible

    The Ingham Singularity has been pushed back a day to Jan 16th?

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by IanT

    7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Oh dear, the annual comparisons to 62/63 being uttered.

    …

     

    Yep. The models seem to show us a 62/63-like period every year, typically at the Ingham Horizon (T+288). 

    Not saying it won’t happen this time round - at some point it will - but we should all be mindful of the verification record for modelled events of this nature.

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

    If this comes off it must be known as the Scott ingham cold spell 

    When the chase is on, I like to look for the point in time where the models are showing the most wintry outcome. The point of maximum forecast interest if you like. Great news when it’s T+48, but it’s often T+240…

    I propose that this point is now referred to as the “Ingham Singularity”.

    Experience has taught that us that when the Ingham Singularity recedes it’s a bad news for coldies. When it advances the opposite is true.

    I hope to see the Jan ‘24 Ingham Singularity hold its position, or move towards us in the coming days 😂

    • Like 9
    • Insightful 1

    #Storm Henk

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    As a fan of lived extreme weather (the opposite to our friends on the MAD thread!) I thought I’d take a calculated risk and take the dog out across the golf course to experience the wind. It was way too wild to take pictures/film; I didn’t feel I could take my eyes away from scanning the air for flying branches.  Two large - really large - trees downed within sight/earshot in the space of five minutes told me I’d miscalculated so we turned round and ran for home. Safely back now.

    The gusts are something else for Surrey. I think this is going to cause a lot of damage/disruption somewhere.

    • Like 2

    #Storm Henk

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Cymro said:

    Compared to last year's total of 4 named storms we're already on 8 named storms this season on par with 2017/18 and 2018/19 with plenty of winter left for more!

    An exceptionally stormy period so far! 

    Must be the climate crisis…😔

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