IanT
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Posts posted by IanT
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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
I've only got to get to that white box..
And back.
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6 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:
Ive hidden the long long list of Jersey warnings, seems like an error
My scrolling thumb thanks you too.
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My (iPad) scrolling thumb says thank you for the workout….
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Just now, ModestMention said:
I'm waiting for the MetOffice YouTube channel's Deep Dive; it will be fascinating this week.
Agreed - when might we expect to see it?
The form horse here is for the system to head south of early modelling with France experiencing more of an “event” than southern UK.
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I think it’s a little early to be cancelling plans for Thursday. There is clearly still a range of outcomes in terms of the track and intensity of the system, and forecast confidence will rise in the usual way as time progresses. The yellow warning is there now to raise awareness, so yes it’s time to contemplate/advise that some flexibility might be needed. But not yet to make definitive decisions as to what you will and won’t be doing on Thursday.
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Torrential rain, thunder and lightning here S of Woking in Surrey.
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9 hours ago, Shaunado said:
A low-probability yellow warning
for rain in the SE issued for this weekend.
My sense - and it is no more than that - is that the MetO are getting too trigger happy with weather warnings. The forecast(s) I’m looking at look seasonal, nothing more.
If warnings are so frequent and for weather that is neither particularly threatening or unseasonal - then they will lose their impact. The same is true of “storm” naming. Not every system is a storm. We’ve seen the impact of sensationalism in mainstream journalism and politics; it will be a shame if the same happens in meteorology.
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7 hours ago, Shaunado said:
There's a yellow warning
for tonight's rain in the SE:
UK weather warnings
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.This yellow warning has just been updated - essentially to cover a larger area westward. However the MetO forecast for my location (S of Woking, well within the area shown) has hardly any rainfall at all. I’ve not seen that before, usually the forecasts and warnings seem well sync’ed. We’ll see which is right!
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10 hours ago, northwestsnow said:
Odd transient ridge aside it all looks Atlantic driven as far as the eye can see..
I'm happy to suffer this if we get something settled and colder in November..
Is there a known linkage or pattern sequence - in fact anything beyond mean reversion - between an Atlantic driven October and a more settled cold November..?
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17 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:
Hmm. BBC news article saying a “metre of rain” has fallen. But the article detail then quoting amounts of 100mm (ish).
so either the UK 24 rainfall record has been shattered by a factor of 3, or somebody there needs some basic maths lessons!
An excellent education on display here
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41 minutes ago, josh-weather said:
It doesn't really matter though, its basically all one set of impacts. It makes more sense to call it one thing - the technicalities are less important than the consequences.
It’s always difficult to get the scientists to accept that. For them the technicalities are everything!
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9 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:
Unusually quiet on here despite the probable scale of this event
It’s not taking place in SE England…
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7 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:
After the current period of summer-like weather the change that's on the way for us will be all the more noteable...
This. If we see 2degC (as shown by some NWP models) here early on Monday morning, it'll be a shock to the system for many..!
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43 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
Tony Gilbert / UKWW not too bullish but an upgraded zone for the afternoon hours through the central south
Can you post a link to the source of this please..?
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Not sure I understand your key.
What is “SVR - Black outline” and why does it have a white outline?
What does your forecast say for the area bounded by Oxford-London-Brighton-Southampton? Is that SVR because it is within the black outline covering Southern UK? Or Low because it is a light grey shaded area?
Perhaps it’s just me. Sorry if so…
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I’m interested too. I like interesting…
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Will the winds forecast for Saturday be a notable event? Is there a thread somewhere to discuss?
MetO have a yellow warning out; I assume those are set in absolute not relative terms. 45-50mph gusts for my area would be distinctly unseasonal.
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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:
Newton Poppleford update.. 64.6mm.
Wow. Over what time period?
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Freshening up here, with some very heavy showers and stronger gusts.
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13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
The dp’s are generally fairly borderline where the main precip occurs so I wouldn’t be certain that we won’t see more of a slush fest than a winter wonderland away from >400 feet.
its very tricky
Very very tricky…
It goes without saying that higher is better, but it’s easy to see how this could result in quite a widespread fall also. MetO is right to put the warnings out. Dew points will be the key and they can generate and sustain their own change in precipitation. And the heaviest snow falls we see in this country tend to happen when temps are above freezing….-
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6 minutes ago, Gowon said:
That's surface cold I think
Indeed. That’s where I tend to spend my time.
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I’m not thinking about mid-March just yet..!
Reasonably blue here from Feb 6th to 12th:
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“PM shots”…? Seems to be the phrase du jour, although a new one for me.
Mentioned three times in the last page or so. What is a “PM shot” please?
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Storm Ciarán
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Correct.