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IanT

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    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I agree. The MetO forecast for this region was accurate and timely, given how the system played out. The warning was given - and was being questioned on this site! - in good time.

    We seem to have an increasing tendency in this country to blame the authorities for everything that happens. Viruses, energy/food costs, a few inches of snow..! Stuff happens…

    Sites/communities like this are full of people taking personal responsibility for understanding how weather (at least) might impact them. I think that is laudable.

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    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, E17boy said:

    Hi peeps

    I very cold and icy here in NE London. I have been keeping a close eye on the radar for the past couple of hours. There’s a blob in the channel that has been moving east and north. If I am seeing it right it could affect the Southeast earlier than scheduled. I may be looking at this wrong but that pacipitation is making further inroads.

    😊😊😊

    I agree with this. Take a look on the excellent NW radar. The track/pivot-point of this looks a little W of where some of the models have it. Worth watching, as you suggest.

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    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The “get the cold in” crew have their wish. But the charts are reminding us that the cold - in itself - isn’t enough for lowland snow. It is a necessary pre-condition for a notable wintry spell, but it is no guarantee.

    That said, small features can arise at short notice with outstanding results. All to play for in this regard, with attention better focussed on the detail in the next 168h rather than on predicting the breakdown somewhere out in FI.

     

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    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The latest on the low from 

     

    Emphasis is mine.

    A large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 900 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become somewhat better organized this morning, though frontal features remain attached to the low. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form within the next day or so. By Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting the chance for additional subtropical or tropical development of the system. Additional information on this low, including warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EST Wednesday, or earlier, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Firstly there's a good pepping of snow showers moving South from around the Norwegian sea...so you would expect an increase as they encounter warmer waters. Also it may pay to keep an eye around the Irish sea over the next day or so,I've noticed many a band of precipitation gather around here in the past before spreading SE. Quite a little mass of snow showers around NE Scotland also...so nice to see some are getting the action. Not sure how many members we have from those neck of the woods though.

    Could contain: Cloud, Sky, Nature, Outdoors, Cumulus, Weather, Advertisement, Poster

    Took me a while to work that image out..😅

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    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     

     

    1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the next couple of days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting subtropical or tropical development of the system. Additional information on this low, including warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EST tonight, or earlier, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    It is always fascinating to see posters queueing up to say that the “…models are struggling…”. I assume this comment is based on the lack of consistency in model output. Whilst there will be only one resolution, at this point multiple evolutions are possible - as reflected by model output..!

    Don’t be too quick to conclude that models are struggling because their output is inconsistent. It may be better to recognise that there is still significant uncertainty given the set of starting conditions.

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