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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    You need to look at the chart that shows the 850 hpa. You need to see those temperatures being well below -5 in a westerly airstream because the Atlantic moderates those temperatures at ground level.
  2. karyo
    Very slow burner as we are talking about 25 or more days from now. A lot of things can go wrong till then.
  3. karyo
    Exactly! lol
  4. karyo
    The problem is that for the most part it is sitting just to the south of us and not over us, hence it is looking mild and cloudy.
  5. karyo
    Unlike to see snow from this chart, at least not on low ground.
  6. karyo
    True but those tweets are from yesterday when even the gfs operationals looked better. I hope the ensembles are still interested in the split.
  7. karyo
    I can't remember of another time that GFS and ECM were in so much disagreement at day 10. Tropospherically yes but not stratospherically. We need the GFS to come back on board.
  8. karyo
    The gfs operational doesn't look as good as yesterday with the split underwhelming and brief. The parallel is also underwhelming.
  9. karyo
    Out to 300 hours is a small improvement to the 6z but still not the perfect split.
  10. karyo
    When i booked the holiday i was reading posters thoughts about a front loaded winter so i though 20th Jan would be safe to leave the country. lol
  11. karyo
    Yeap
  12. karyo
    I am going away on the 20th Jan so i can do with the cold hurrying up a bit!
  13. karyo
    What is interesting to note, is that about a week ago the update was talking about a change to colder weather in the New Year with the possibility of this happening earlier. This has certainly been pushed back with the change to colder weather 'further into January'.
  14. karyo
    We can 'thank' the Alps for that.
  15. karyo
    I just want all models to show the major split from now on so that we can relax a bit. This on and off game is exhausting!
  16. karyo
    Yes, that's good to see on the parallel. Much better than the 0z.
  17. karyo
    Yes, the strato vortex looks like re-organising after a not great split. The last gfs run that showed a good split was the 12z yesterday.
  18. karyo
    No proper strato split on the 18z
  19. karyo
    In recent days the 6z was the most enthusiastic of the gfs runs re: strato split. Not today though, the 6z has also backed down from the ideal split scenario.
  20. karyo
    I don't know how reliable those charts are but i like the blocking between Iceland and Scandinavia from day onwards forcing the jet to the south and in nw-se axis. Karyo
  21. karyo
    It seems to me that Steve has been affected by the seasonal switch! I.e. once we approach the beginning of spring we should forget snow and cold, and seek warm sunshine. Last year, we received the best snowfall in March and April, so that in itself makes it worthwhile to continue to look for wintry weather in the models. As for snow that lasts for days or weeks, well that's unusual in lowland Britain at any time of the year, yet this year we achieved it despite not particularly 'favourable synoptics! Karyo
  22. karyo
    The 6z is once again the most enthusiastic with the split from all the gfs runs. We can do with some consistency or upgrades from the 12 and 18z.
  23. karyo
    Not the ones that live in the UK! lol Anyway, good to see another split in the stratosphere.
  24. karyo
    High pressure with surface cold would be a blessing until we get a more favourable pattern. It will cool down the ground nicely.
  25. karyo
    Yes and the UKMO is milder and drizzlier from what I can see. That low to the southwest is a huge pain!
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